Just for Sport

I haven’t posted my picks since Week 7 (schoolwork started to catch up to me), and since then I fell from 62-25 (.713) to 150-106 (.586). It’s not as bad as it looks, since I didn’t get my Week 12 picks in on time and went 0-16 that week. Anyway, I ended up tying with my father in our challenge after mounting a five week comeback. These picks have to be right, since we will be using the entire playoffs as a tiebreaker.

NFC Wild Card
#6 NY Giants @ #3 Philadelphia
These two split their regular season matchups, with the Giants winning in Week 2 and the Eagles taking it in Week 15. These teams know each other very well, which means a lot of what happens here will come down to coaching. In that case, I take Andy Reid over Tom Coughlin every time.

#5 Dallas @ #4 Seattle
A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure the Cowboys could go deep in the playoffs. Now it seems like the rest of the league is catching up to Romo, and the Seahawks make for a pretty tough first round opponent. They have what many believe to be the best home field advantage in the league. However, Mike Holmgren showed me something this week: He doesn’t believe in his team. Why else would he talk all week as if Shaun Alexander weren’t playing, and then give him the ball 29 times…and in a meaningless game against the Bucs? Sure, the Cowboys had something to play for and lost to a horrible team, but riding your players hard unnecessarily? This happens at least once every year, and that team invariably loses.

AFC Wild Card
#6 Kansas City @ #3 Indianapolis
This is Indy’s weakest year in a long time, but I can’t see them losing to Herm Edwards in the playoffs. Larry Johnson will certainly tear up that run defense, but Peyton will also carve up the Chief’s secondary. Ty Law can’t cover anybody, and you can bet that even if it is close, Herm will find a way to mismanage the clock and give it to the Colts. By the way, (and I don’t want to overstate this) if Bob Sanders can play, the run defense will be twice as good. I know that’s not saying a lot, but still.

#5 New York Jets @ #4 New England
Once again, these two teams split their regular season meetings. The Patriots fended off a Jets comeback in Week 2, and the Jets took Week 10 in a close one. Here’s my beef: The talking heads still speak of New England as if they were the perfect team. They’ve got terrific chemistry, any ball Tom Brady throws turns to gold, Belichick deserves a Nobel prize, they’ve got loads more class than anybody, etc. In the past year, they’ve shown me none of these qualities. In the first round last year, they kept their starters in a ran up the score against Jacksonville. Then karma caught up to them and they lost to the Broncos. They whined and whined about the Champ Bailey play. Maybe they were justified, but show me how that means they have class. Tom Brady can’t hit an open receiver (it’s not the receivers’ fault, stop giving him a free pass), and in Week 10 the Jets went into Gillette and beat the Pats in a game Belichick desperately wanted to win. And just when you hadn’t heard any whining in a while, all the players got up in arms over an injury to an injury-prone player (Harrison) that happened on a routine play. It’s bad news when that’s what the locker room is trying to rally around. The Jets defense gets it done in this one. Just as I wrote this, some guy on Cold Pizza said the “Jets had no chance to win” and “Tom Brady has been disrespected this year”. Give me a break.

NFC Divisional Playoff
#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans
Remember back in September, when everybody thought that the Falcons would come into the Superdome and ruin the Saints first home game? Then U2 came in and New Orleans played out of their minds in front of a rowdy crowd. The Saints have ridden that momentum all the way through the season, and Jeff Garcia is not going to be the person to take that away.

#5 Dallas @ #1 Chicago
After Dallas upsets Seattle on the road, they will face the *real* best home field advantage in the league. I’m sure a lot of people have Chicago one and done because of the inconsistent play of Rex Grossman, but the defense and special teams will more than make up for it against Dallas.

AFC Divisional Playoff
#5 NY Jets @ #1 San Diego
Mangini can get the Jets up for the game against New England, but San Diego is too talented to be overcome by willpower alone. The Jets have a good defense, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons; they may not even have to use them all.

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore
I’ve been dumping on Steve McNair all year long. I’m still not a believer, but he’s more than able to get it done against this defense. Unlike Kansas City, they have multiple weapons and will be able to drive the ball and keep Manning off the field.

NFC Championship
#2 New Orleans @ #1 Chicago
At different times this season, I have been a believer in each of these teams. I’m not completely sold on the Saints, but I believe in Drew Brees.

AFC Championship
#2 Baltimore @ #1 San Diego
This, I believe, is where McNair falters. San Diego’s secondary has always been suspect, but pressure from the other side of the ball will force Steve into mistakes.

Super Bowl XLI
New Orleans vs. San Diego
It will be a hard fought game, but LaDainian Tomlinson will emerge from his record-breaking season as the Super Bowl MVP. 34-28.

TSN reported yesterday that the NHL is considering realigning its teams. The league, which is currently in a six division format, is thinking about switching to just four divisions. The six division format has always been doomed from its inception. At least it’s an even number, but not when you crown division champions and are stuck with the problem of deciding which teams face each other, etc. It’s better in hockey than it is in baseball, though, because Western Conference teams face Eastern Conference teams all the time.

Baseball, ironically enough, reacted to its four division “problem” by switching to a six division format, then switching Milwaukee from one league to another. It was a simple enough solution: even number of teams in each league, and nobody even cares about Milwaukee anyway, right? Well, except for the commissioner. Anyway, the American League now has 14 teams, and the National League has 16. Why not round it out? The NCAA tournament starts with 64 teams, not 62.

It’s time for baseball to take a clue from the NFL: We need four divisions in each league, with an equal amount of teams. This would provide more competitive balance, a simpler schedule, and possibly more playoff teams. I’ll admit that I’m biased on this topic because I have a vested interest in the two divisions (AL West and NL Central) that have an abnormal amount of teams. In an age where the schedule makers are concerned about balance of schedule, the schedule is very unbalanced for the ten teams (1/3 of the league) in these two divisions.

In order to divide the teams into eight divisions of four teams each, two more teams are required. Both would have to be in the AL, unless the Brewers were to move back over (not advised). Before I talk about where the new teams should be located, let’s talk about the realignment of the National League, because we know where all those teams are. My proposed plan takes into account mostly geography, but also does its best not to split up truly historical rivalries – recent ones don’t count as much because they’re mostly based on recent success, which is pretty spotty when you’re trying to set up a system that should last for a while.

NL North
Chicago
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis

NL South
Atlanta
Arizona
Houston
Florida

NL West
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

NL East
New York
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Washington

This method ensures that each team resides in a division that is actually descriptive of their location. The South division is probably most problematic, because it is large in scope and a hodgepodge of all three current divisions. At least the problem of the Pirates in the Central division is solved. Travel issues for each team are improved or at least the same, with the possible exception of the Diamondbacks. Rivalries such as LA-San Fran and Chicago-St. Louis are preserved.

Before we realign the American League, we must first address the issue of expansion. What cities should get the new teams? Here are the candidates.

Locations that were in contention for the Expos franchise: Arlington (Va.), Las Vegas, Monterrey (Mexico), Norfolk (Va.), Portland

Locations that have professional teams other than baseball: Buffalo, Calgary, Charlotte, Columbus, Edmonton, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Long Island (Uniondale), Memphis, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey (East Rutherford), New Orleans, Oklahoma City (kind of), Orlando, Ottawa, Portland, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Jose, Vancouver

Other locations that might be capable of supporting a pro team: Albuquerque, Anchorage, Austin, Birmingham, Boise, Honolulu, Little Rock, Louisville, Omaha, San Juan, Tulsa, probably a bunch of Canadian cities (forgive me if I’ve forgotten any…if they’re not already on this overly extensive list, it ain’t happening)

Let’s assume, for the sake of my sanity, that new teams would be picked based solely on their geographical location in order to make realignment easier. Here’s what the American League might look like:

AL North
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Minnesota

AL South
Kansas City
Tampa Bay
Texas
New Team A, perhaps New Orleans or Nashville

AL West
Anaheim
Oakland
Seattle
New Team B, perhaps Portland or Las Vegas

AL East
Baltimore
Boston
New York
Toronto

Once again, travel is made easier for almost every team, again with the possible exception of Tampa Bay and Texas. Of course, Texas is no longer in a West Coast-only division, and Tampa Bay isn’t always going North, so it makes more sense nevertheless. Friends that I have proposed this system to maintain that my bias for Texas led to the considerably weak AL South, but these teams do not have to be perennially bad. A few years ago, the North division would have been considered very weak as well. Again, historic rivalries are preserved, for the most part.

Possible Problems
Any time the league is expanded (let alone realigned), the integrity of the game is called into question. One has to consider schedule expansion, although this is highly unlikely.
Nevertheless, the introduction of more teams means that the talent pool is going to be watered down a bit, calling statistics into question in an era where they are already on very shaky ground. However, these questions always end up being temporal. It is much more important to have an equality between the leagues, especially if so much emphasis is being placed on a “balanced schedule.” How can the schedule be balanced if the numbers are wrong?

The playoff question, in my mind, is the biggest obstacle to a realignment. Right now four teams from each league make it, meaning under a new system there would be no wild card. One thing I appreciate about the current playoff system is that only good teams make the playoffs. To be sure, some very good teams are often left out, but at least half the league doesn’t make it in, a la NBA or NHL. The reality is, though, that the player’s association has actually been pushing to let more teams in. Last year, they proposed a system where ultimately eight teams make it in, but there’s a play-in round. Certainly this and other proposals would have to be considered if MLB wanted to continue allowing Wild Card teams to make the playoffs. In my mind, whatever they came up with would be worth the switch to an eight division format – as long as they keep the playoff pool relatively shallow. I still want end of season pennant races to mean something.

There are several other logistic problems inherent with expansion. Ownership groups would have to be assembled, stadiums would have to built (I withdraw my nomination of New Orleans if they use the Superdome), minor league affiliations would have to be made, etc. It’s clear that such a system couldn’t happen overnight. But Mr. Selig is clearly on his way out. The new commissioner could start things off on the right foot by announcing a five-year or seven-year plan to expand and realign baseball, for the better integrity of the game.

Got a different plan for realignment, or an improved playoff system? Don’t think baseball should be realigned? Want to lobby for a specific city to get a team? Post a comment!

A few days ago, I posted about overrated football players. Today, we visit the world of baseball. Again, this work was done by a committee of five (and sometimes four). (Note: There will not be posts about basketball or hockey. Only one of our number knows enough about hockey to say anything valuable, and you could fill up four or five rosters of overrated players in the NBA.) We ended up with a five-man rotation, three closers, three catchers, five outfielders, two managers, and two each of the rest of the positions. There was much more contention involved in the creation of this team than in the NFL version. Many lively debates broke out, and several compromises were made. The same basic rules applied here. This time I’m not going to try to explain why we picked every single player, just provide commentary where it is warranted. Watch the comments, I’ll have at least a couple about picks that I disagree with.

SP
John Lackey
Chan Ho Park
Jeff Weaver
David Wells
Jaret Wright

Perhaps as residents of Abilene, Texas, we are biased, but John Lackey is overrated around here. Locals talk about him as if he were the second coming. The man has had one really good start, and it happened to be in Game 7 of the World Series. Otherwise, he’s a thug.

Closers
Francisco Cordero
Jason Isringhausen
Brad Lidge

One of the funniest things about my recent visit to Minute Maid Park was the 12 year old kid behind me yelling for “Lights Out Lidge!” only to see him blow something like his third save in a week - against the Diamondbacks.

C
Mike Piazza
2/3 of the Molina Family

Mike Piazza gets credit for playing the catcher position, but it’s more like he takes up space back there. He’s a one-dimensional player, simple as that. Which 2/3, you ask? That’s up to you to decide.

1B
Jason Giambi
Richie Sexson

The fact that Giambi won an MVP is a joke.

2B
Marcus Giles
Jeff Kent

We’re just not a fan of the ’stache.

3B
Adrian Beltre
Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is certainly a good player, but not, as some might say, the best active player. Not at all.

SS
Bobby Crosby
Derek Jeter

This was by far the most crowded position. We settled on probably the worst player ever to be listed as a preseason pick for MVP (Crosby) and on Mr. Overrated himself.

OF
Johnny Damon
J.D. Drew
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Juan Pierre

We wanted six outfielders, but couldn’t get past seven. So, we simply cut the weakest two. What we got is a pretty good list of overrated players, perhaps captained by Jim Edmonds, the biggest flopper in baseball if such a thing can exist.

Manager
Dusty Baker
Lou Piniella

I cringed when I realized that our picks were the last two managers of the Cubs. We couldn’t believe it this offseason when Lou Piniella emerged as the consensus best manager available. Here’s how you tell: My friends made fun of me when they found out the Cubs had hired Piniella.

Welcome to the inaugural NFL All-Overrated Team. A good portion of our Monday Night Football get-togethers involve a lot of complaining about overrated players, especially when the Vikings play and the MNF crew won’t shut up about Brad Johnson. So, we decided to put our money where our mouth is and come up with a team full of these guys. This team was put together by a committee of five self-proclaimed experts in the field. Here’s the criteria:

1 - Current players only. In the words of Mark McGwire, “We’re not here to talk about the past.”

2 - This is not a lifetime achievement award, but it’s not just a 2006 thing, either. We tried to take into account the past 3-5 years. We do have some rookies and second and third year players, so take that with a grain of salt. Certainly, it’s possible that many rookies who have a lot of hype surrounding them will improve, but you can’t really leave them off the list. We wanted to include the entire league.

3 - In order to be overrated, a player must have a certain amount of “rated-ness.” This is not a bad players list. There are some players that we consider to be very good, but not necessarily worthy of all the hero worship. It may be that there is a major flaw in their game that gets downplayed, or that their stats don’t seem to back the perception.

4 - We limited the number of players per position. In some cases this turned out to be good, others not so much. Our initial list of quarterbacks encompassed almost half the league, but we really struggled to fill out the linebacker corps. We ended up with 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 4 DL, 3 LBs, 5 DBs, and 1 K. We didn’t do any offensive linemen, because we didn’t feel we knew enough about it.

5 - Once again, this team was picked by a committee. Not all of us agreed with all of the picks. In fact, each of us were dissatisfied with at least one choice during the process. I will be noting my grievances in the comments, and I will encourage the others to do the same. You, the reader, are encouraged to follow suit.

6 - The players are listed in alphabetical order. It’s not a depth chart.

QB
Brad Johnson
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger

Our quarterbacks are represented by two young guys and a really old one. We felt that Eli got too much press for being in the Manning family, and Roethlisberger is one of the guys that isn’t spectacular, but doesn’t make many mistakes. He gets way too much credit for the work his teammates do (Terry Bradshaw syndrome). Brad Johnson’s merits have already been discussed.

RB
Reggie Bush
Edgerrin James
LaMont Jordan

Reggie Bush was destined to be on this team the moment a columnist compared the draft to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. He’s not a good running back, and the committee believes he would be best served by switching to a WR. Edgerrin James is starting to make us believe that he was a “product of the system” in Indy. He’s not even one of the three best players in Arizona right now. LaMont Jordan has been a bust in every sense of the word. In fact, one of our own drafted him in the second round, only to drop him. He remains a free agent in our league.

WR
Ashley Lelie
Jerry Porter
Mike Williams

Williams, a former first round pick, ended up getting cut this offseason. Lelie, also a first rounder, had no catches this week and has not been the “downfield threat” he is billed to be. Porter has been a disappointment, as he cannot even get on the field. Contrary to popular opinion, the committee believes it wouldn’t make a difference, anyway.

TE
Kellen Winslow

Behind closed doors (and on the internet), I call him “The Mouth.” It seems like Winslow always has something to say in the locker room, but never seems to be able to say it on the field.

DL
Courtney Brown
Ebenezer Ekuban
Dwight Freeney
Jevon Kearse

We feature two Denver Broncos on our defensive line. Courtney Brown was supposed to be the next big thing, and a 70 tackle performance in his rookie season added fuel to the fire. He hasn’t even come close to replicating that success, but commentators remain convinced of his prowess. He recorded 24 tackles in 14 games last season, and has been unable to make it the field this year. Ebenezer was also supposed to be the second coming in Dallas, but ended up frustrating Cowboy fans with his inconsistent play. Nevertheless, the Broncos sung his praises when they signed him. They’ve received a slightly better performance from him this year, but Texans know he’s not deserving of the national attention. Everytime an announcer talks about Jevon Kearse, they mention his nickname: “The Freak.” Kearse may be a fine physical specimen, but his play isn’t fitting of a man of his stature and hype. Dwight Freeney rounds out our line. Freeney is certainly an important piece of Indy’s defense, often drawing double and triple teams in pass protection. However, he is completely ineffective against the run, a fact that’s often downplayed by announcers and commentators.

LB
Lavar Arrington
Napoleon Harris
Joey Porter

Napoleon Harris is the anchor of my defense on my Madden 07 team. The game certainly rates him very highly, as do many talking heads. What’s that, you say? Minnesota is ranked #1 against the run? Not because of Napoleon Harris. In fact, you could say that the MLB on this team is the weak spot. Joey Porter often gets a lot of press because he’s controversial. However, the perception seems to be that he is also a good player, which he is not. He is largely ineffective unless he is blitzing. A good blitzer does not a good linebacker make. Lavar Arrington, however, takes the cake. There have been numerous games in the last few years where Arrington has ended up with 0-2 tackles, yet he commanded a large contract in the offseason and seems to be a media favorite. Honestly, I would not want this individual playing linebacker on my favorite NFL Europe team.

DB
De’Angelo Hall
Quentin Jammer
Pacman Jones
Troy Polamalu
Charles Woodson

The AFC dominates our defensive backfield. Charles Woodson has long been perceived as an effective #1 corner, but nobody on the committee would take him for a #2. Troy Polamalu gets a lot of press for his ridiculous hair and hard hits, but he lacks the ability to cover a receiver one-on-one. Pacman Jones is a good returner, but hardly a #1 cornerback, contrary to perception. Quentin Jammer is often praised for his coverage skills, yet teams continue to pick on him in the red zone and on deep passes - effectively. Interestingly enough, De’Angelo Hall was labelled as an overrated Cornerback in this article. Anyone who refers to themself in the third person should be better at what they do than Hall is.

K
Mike Vanderjagt

I started calling Vanderjagt “Wide Right” after he kicked that ball into Canada during the playoff game against the Steelers last year. Since he’s been playing for the Cowboys, I’ve noticed a trend: No matter the situation, the Idiot Kicker’s kicks always end up right of center. Field goals either go wide right or sneak in on the right side, his kickoffs end up on the right side of the field (on the 10 yard line!), even the extra points end up on the right side of the goal. I don’t understand how you can kick for a living and not find a way to fix this. He’s completely unreliable, even from short distances, yet he continues to be lauded as “The NFL’s most accurate kicker.” This may be true statistically, but one cannot argue his overrated-ness. He is definitely not as valuable as advertised, evidenced by the Dallas Cowboys no longer needing his services.

Yes, I included Mark McGwire. No, I did not include Jose Canseco. Maybe I am too sentimental, and that’s why I have Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy. At least I have Gwynn and Ripken, who appear to be the only consensus guys this year. I am prepared to back up each of my picks. Here they are:

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Orel Hershiser
Tommy John
Wally Joyner
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Cal Ripken Jr.

The following two things come from the Beating a Dead Horse Department:

1 - Someone in the national media has finally woken up. Wait - Reggie Bush isn’t Michael Jordan? But he did so well against Fresno State and Arizona State…it was supposed to be a sure thing!

2 - The Red Sox have officially become the Yankees. Boston and New York should join together and form a super-team, so they can be the first ones to pay $85 million dollars to some 13 year-old in Belgium for exclusive draft rights in 2013.

The common link between the two issues I find myself writing about most often? You got it…sports teams and sportswriters overrate potential. I blame it on Lebron James, the one athlete of this generation to even come close to living up to the hype. The very moment he scored 25 points in his rookie debut, we should have seen it coming. All of a sudden everybody wants to jump on the next big athlete’s bandwagon. For as long as it’s been around, ESPN the Magazine has published an annual “Next” magazine, where a large majority of the ink is spent projecting which high schooler will be the next Michael Jordan, Walter Payton, or Albert Einstein. It had just gotten to be ridiculous when they got Lebron right, so it made sense that that would start a feeding frenzy. And this is what it has led to…Large-market teams willing to pay over $50 million dollars just to talk to somebody (By the way, this money doesn’t count toward the luxury tax, does it? Try to tell me that the Shared Revenue/Luxury Tax system works now…) and entire professional teams are ostracized in the media for picking the “wrong” player before a snap is even played. Five or so years ago, Tank McNamara spoofed the whole idea with a strip that portrayed a major shoe company executive approaching a pregnant woman with a large shoe contract for her unborn son. At the time, it seemed ridiculous. Now, the “experts” seem to be capable of determining how well a 14 year-old will perform in the professional sports arena with no room for error. Signing a fetus to a shoe contract now would seem to be prudent, as the young man’s stock can only rise. Get them while they’re cheap! It can only get worse if Reggie Bush can somehow right the ship and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gyroball is all Peter Gammons says it is. I’m personally rooting that they do, so that my wife and I can sign that Adidas contract in a couple of years.

I’m watching the UTEP-UAB game, and Jordan Palmer just made an amazing play. He dropped back to pass, felt the rush, broke two tackles, scrambled to his left (he’s right-handed) and completed a first down pass - on third down. Of course, the drive ended in a touchdown with a minute left to go in the first half. Yet the announcers for ESPN2 continued to debate the National Championship problem caused by the otherwise mediocre Rutgers Scarlet Knights. They didn’t even acknowledge the play. This has to be Reason #837 why I prefer professional football over its college counterpart: A great play was just shoved out of the way by controversy over the BCS - and the entire discussion had absolutely nothing to do with the game being shown! I was under the impression that I was watching a broadcast of a football game, not an opinion show about the Bogus College Sport. Soon, I will post about many of the reasons I see college football as inferior. Until then, be informed that a large portion of it has to do with the subjectivity of crowning a champion, and about how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer while we sit around and talk about the rich. That’s a metaphor - but it really happened.

Note: Sorry to those of you who have commented in the past. I didn’t realize that all comments were going to moderation mode. Comments you make should show up now.

For as long as I can remember I’ve been a baseball bigamist. I claim both the Chicago Cubs and the Texas Rangers as “my team.” I’ve explained this to more people than I can count, but I’ll do it again here. When I was growing up at home, I would always watch the Cubs on WGN during the day. I loved listening to Harry Caray, especially when he did the seventh inning stretch. There were players I liked: Ryne Sandberg, because of the hard-nosed way he always played second base; and Mark Grace, because I had his rookie card and he seemed like a good player to support. Of course, there’s Wrigley Field, the greatest sports venue in the country. A lot of my friends think I believe that because I’m a Cubs fan - really, I’m a Cubs fan because I love Wrigley Field. There’s the old-time scoreboard that’s so prominent in center field, ivy grows on the fences, and people watch the games from the rooftops. That’s probably the biggest factor - the Cubs could be one of the worst teams in baseball (and in the early 90’s this was never far from the truth) and the ballpark would be packed. People would show up for the experience of the game - when they sang “Take Me Out to the Ballgame,” they meant it. You have to understand that in the early 90’s in North Texas, I lived among a bunch of bandwagon Cowboy fans, so a team with such a strong following appealed to me.

There was also the Rangers. I learned about baseball from watching the Rangers with my Dad. We would sit on the couch and watch the game, and he would tell me what a hit-and-run was and why the pitcher had a rosin bag. We kept score, even if we were watching from home. In my scorebook many important events were immortalized, including a grand slam by Pete Incaviglia that was probably one of the most clutch hits in Rangers history (not a lot to choose from, I know). My first Major League game was at Arlington Stadium. The Rangers played the Oakland Athletics. Bobby Witt was pitching, and we lost. I remember cheering for Nolan Ryan to come in from the bullpen, believing it could actually happen.

That’s probably a little too much sidetrack. The point is supposed to be for me to point out that in the 2006 offseason, the Cubs and Rangers are going two opposite directions, starting their respective managerial hires. The Cubs organization is somehow deluded into thinking that grabbing the biggest name on the market is going to make them a winner. Getting Dusty Baker out of there was the right move - I’ll never forgive him for pitching Prior and Wood over 200 innings each in 2003 - but Lou Piniella isn’t the direction we need to be going. Maybe this team needs a little fire, but I think it needs somebody who can manage in the National League more than that. Also, we need a lead-off hitter and a bullpen.

I have some optimism for the 2007 Rangers. If we can somehow convince Matthews to come back and land one or two more pitchers (Matsuzaka, please!), we’re going to be okay. The more I hear about Ron Washington, the better. First off, I like the idea of taking people away from the Athletics. But this article makes me do backflips. You mean guys like Barry Zito, Jermaine Dye, and Torii Hunter are talking about the Texas Rangers because of our new manager?!?! Jon Daniels is even cooler than I thought! Maybe the Rangers could become the Tigers of the 04-05 offseason: all of the good free agents collectively decide to join one team because of its potential for growth. Hey, Jason Schmidt, we’ve got Barry Zito and the best infield in baseball. You want in on this?

Anyway, this offseason is a crazy one for me. I read that both of my teams put in bids for Matsuzaka, so unlike most fans, I’ve got about a 2-in-7 chance that my team will land him, rather than a 1-in-7 chance. Things are looking up for both teams (honestly, how can it get any worse than last year for the Cubs?). It would help if they would stop making useless trades with each other. Nevin for Hairston? Stop torturing me.

Okay, before I go, some input is required. I’m thinking about pulling a TMQ and nicknaming all of the sports teams I write about based on their mascot, team logo, collective persona, or other trait. My idea for the Rangers is: Texas Chuck Norrises. Perhaps the Cubs could be Windy City/B - until they win the World Series, in which they could be Windy City/A. Thoughts?

I was playing for the seventh grade football team when I learned first-hand that the best team doesn’t always win. For the second game of the season, we played another small town team, and we were killing them. We were tackling harder, we were running the ball down their throats, and they couldn’t move the ball at all. There were a couple of breaks that just didn’t go our way. One of their players stripped the ball from our running back after he was already down, they ran back a kickoff, and kicked an onside kick at the end of the game and ran out the clock to seal the deal. Our coach was probably the maddest about the last one, because its apparently against the code of Jr. High coaches to run trick plays. Anyway, he gave us a speech about outplaying the other team but still being outscored, probably just to make us feel better. I took it to heart, however. I had played effectively on both sides of the ball, and I was upset most when the other team simply ran out the clock. We had won that game, but they got the W. Ever since then, my biggest complaint about the game of football has been the clock. As a matter of fact, I’ve never been a fan of the clock in any sport. It makes the winning team way too conservative. In my mind, if you’re not truly competing for the duration of the game, it’s a cheap win. This is one of many reasons that I prefer baseball. It’s never to a baseball team’s advantage to stop trying to score runs, or worse, for the losing team to let the other team score so they’ll actually have an opportunity at the end of the game. It’s also why I find college football’s overtime system to be far superior, and the current overtime format of hockey satisfying. Finally, it’s why I found myself getting mad at Sean Payton last week. The Saints actually kneeled the ball for the last two minutes in order to win the game. Why are we rewarding teams for being passive and not playing the game? I’m not really mad at Payton, though. He’s just coaching the game given the rules. I’m just bitter about the rules, because too many football games come down to [shudder] clock management. I know it will never change, and the NFL will never get rid of kickers, but this kind of play will never truly determine the best team, in my mind. Am I just a bitter person because I lost that game in seventh grade and had a losing record last week? Probably. But you know I have a point…

This week, the picks will be shorter. Two reasons: (A) my little rant above is enough space anyway, and (B) I need to get better about going with my instinct (see last week). So, here it is. Winners are in italics.

Last Week: 5-8 (.385)
Total: 62-25 (.713)

Carolina @ Cincinnati
Steve Smith is too good for a struggling Bengals team.

Detroit @ NY Jets
It’ll take more than one game for me to be sold on the Lions, especially on the road.

Green Bay @ Miami
I’m probably one of the few who still thinks Miami has a shot in that weak division.

Jacksonville @ Houston
With Indy looking vulnerable, the Jaguars have to be smelling blood.

New England @ Buffalo
I’ve been a believer in Losman before, and he’s made me look foolish. No more.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Only as long as Gruden doesn’t kneel the ball for a game-winning field goal - and he would never do that in a million years.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
No way Mike Vick gets it done against this defense.

San Diego @ Kansas City
Philip Rivers is going strong, and the Chiefs’ defense was exposed last week.

Denver @ Cleveland
It will only be a matter of time before somebody puts some points up on this defense, but the Browns aren’t the team to do it.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are hungover after last week’s collapse, but the Raiders are what the doctor ordered.

Minnesota @ Seattle
The addition (and good play) of Deion Branch has to make Seattle a Super Bowl favorite, if Shaun Alexander will ever come back.

Washington @ Indianapolis
McFarland gets his first test against Portis and the boys. Even if he fails, Peyton can beat the Redskins blindfolded.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Why all the Tiki Barber talk? To create a diversion from all of their other problems.

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 6, I’m 6-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland. W 13-3
Week 7: JACKSONVILLE, vs. Houston.

Generally, when I make my picks each week, I do my best to go with my instinct. I have found that overanalyzing a game can often make you miss the big picture. That’s why, when I got to this week’s games, I had a lot of trouble. There were only four or five games that I had a strong gut feel about, and that makes me nervous. Am I reading too much into Atlanta’s red zone stats? Is the fact that Detroit’s secondary horrible really enough for the Bills to win? This week was a lot tougher. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident that I can improve my record once again. You heard it here: 12-1. Which one will I get wrong? If I knew that, I wouldn’t get it wrong.

Last Week: 12-2 (.857)
Overall: 57-17 (.770)

Buffalo @ Detroit
What an ugly game to start off with. You think it’s easy to pick this game? Each team’s got an inconsistent quarterback. Both Kitna and Losman have been at the bottom and the top of their games at some point in this young season. Thus, I’m going with the quarterback who’s set up in the best position to win. Detroit’s secondary is horrible, so it’s got to be J.P. Losman and the Bills. Plus they’ve got Willis. Pick: Buffalo

Houston @ Dallas
It’s a shame that this game doesn’t happen more often. You might not think so now, but the next time these two meet, I believe the playing field will be more even. Don’t forget that Houston won its first game as a franchise against the ‘Boys. Not this week, though. Houston has a little bit of momentum and a bye week, but the Cowboys have Bill Parcells and something to prove. Pick: Dallas

Carolina @ Baltimore
Since I started writing this post, I have flip-flopped on this game twice. Part of me thinks that the loss of DeAngelo Williams really hurts the Panthers. The other part of me wants Steve McNair to fail so I can look really smart. Honestly, though, the Ravens have an awesome defense that can keep them in any game. Carolina’s defense is very good also, and should give McNair fits, but they will not be able to run and Jake Delhomme will struggle. Baltimore ekes it out at the end. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants @ Atlanta
Get ready for a shoot-out. Neither team has an outstanding defense, and both can light up the scoreboard, albeit in different ways. Atlanta’s rushing attack is potent as always, but getting rid of T.J. Duckett has, in my opinion, had more impact than people want to talk about. You want proof? The Falcons are last in the NFL in red zone offense. In a game where the two-minute drill is likely to make a difference, I’ll take Eli Manning over Mike Vick. Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee @ Washington
Which Washington team is going to show up? In my opinion, the one that beat Jacksonville. Why? Clinton Portis is getting better. More than that, though, they’re playing the Titans, an extremely young team that would probably be getting more notice as an extremely bad team if it weren’t for the Lions and the Raiders. Pick: Washington

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay
This one seems pretty simple. Aside from the game in New England, the Bengals have shown that they deserve their reputation as a team that could run up the score any given week – and they haven’t even gotten Chad Johnson really involved yet. I’m of the opinion that Bruce Gradkowski is actually an upgrade from Chris Simms, but Tampa Bay’s defense has been surprisingly inept thus far. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ St. Louis
St. Louis is quite possibly one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They don’t turn the ball overall, they’re balanced on offense, and their defense can shut teams down. Seattle will once again be without Shaun Alexander, which really hurts their chances. When the NFC West comes down to a difference of one or two games, this injury will prove to be one of great impact. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
At one point, I said something about not picking against the Saints in the Superdome this year. That rule worked out for me last week, when I wanted to pick the Bucs and didn’t. This week, though, I find it hard to pick against the red-hot Eagles, whom I believe to be in the top 5 in the league. Even if Westbrook doesn’t start (and who knows if he will?), Philly’s got the tools to overwhelm the Saints, even in the Superdome. Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego @ San Francisco
Philip Rivers’ coming-out party will continue this week. Expectations are continually being raised for the Chargers, and I see little chance of a let-down against an improving, but still mediocre team. Alex Smith still needs to prove himself to me. Pick: San Diego

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Damon Huard, not Dante Hall, is the X-Factor in this game. If he can continue to play out of his mind, he will send the defending champs to 1-4. Pittsburgh just looks bad right now, and it’s going to take a miracle to get out of that funk. And you know what? I’m loving it! My two younger brothers’ favorite teams (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) have a combined 1 win through Week 5, and it’s not looking like they’ll have any more next week. Pick: Kansas City

Miami @ NY Jets
These teams, on the whole, aren’t very good. The Jets played the Colts well, but don’t read too much into that, because so did the Titans. They promptly tanked against the Chiefs, proving that when they face a good defense, they can’t move the ball. For all the talk about Culpepper in Miami, people have missed that the Dolphins have a great defense that has actually kept them in games. With Harrington, I think they have a shot here. Pick: Miami

Oakland @ Denver
I’m not sure this needs an explanation. If Denver doesn’t win by at least 20, I will be sorely disappointed. Seriously. Pick: Denver

Chicago @ Arizona
This one seems pretty simple as well. Many are calling Chicago the most complete team in the NFL. I’m not worried about Chicago losing; what I want to know is: Will Daniael Manning get some credit during the stupid new MNF player intros? Will he get a pick? My answers are no and yes. Pick: Chicago

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 5, I’m 5-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland.