Just for Sport

Three.  That’s the number of shutouts Marty Turco had in the series against the Canucks.  It’s also the number of years in a row that the Stars have lost in the first round of the playoffs. 

"After the game, I wanted to tell Marty, ‘Sorry.’" - Stars Captain Brenden Morrow 

It’s true that Stars fans are spoiled.  Since moving to Dallas, they have only missed the playoffs once, and went to the Stanley Cup finals twice, winning it in 1999.  They also own two President’s Trophies.  Stars fans in Dallas don’t know anything but winning, and that’s what makes this recent bout of playoff futility so difficult.  After last season, when they were supposed to go deep, they won only one game against an inferior Avalanche team.  Many people were blamed, but Turco took the brunt of the criticism.  It’s hard to follow Ed Belfour.

So when the Stars went down 3-1 in the Vancouver series, people were already starting to call for Marty’s head.  The problem: it’s not his fault.  The Achille’s Heel of the Stars all season long has been scoring goals.  It was their problem during the playoffs as well.  Should Turco’s feet be held to the fire?  No.  Dave Tippett’s should.  

In the old NHL, the adage "Defense Wins Championships" held true.  In the new NHL, it does not.  The Stars play a certain way in the regular season: Play it close.  If we’re ahead by a goal, fine.  If we’re behind by a goal, let’s force overtime and rely on our NHL-best shootout to get the two points.  The philosophy doesn’t translate to the playoffs.  Teams tighten up.  They don’t want to lose one goal games, and they’re not going to be satisfied with overtime because no points are awarded.  Meanwhile, if the Stars can get into overtime, they’re conditioned to ride the storm out for five minutes and hit the showers.  Gone are the days of Brett Hull and Mike Modano playing 55 minutes each and hooking up for a game-winner.  And you know what?  It’s not Mike Modano’s fault, crossbar aside.  Those things happen.  The team needs to be put into a position to win.  It’s not Brenden Morrow’s fault.  He has shown as much leadership as a player can.  It’s certainly not Marty Turco’s fault.  He proved that the choker label doesn’t fit.  It IS Dave Tippett’s fault.  Mr. Hicks, if you’re looking for changes to make to this team to keep them contending (and I certainly hope you are), head coach is the place to look.  Otherwise, I’m afraid the Stars are on a spiral into the basement of the Western Conference.

First, here’s how the first round shaped up for me:
1 – 26 wins, 6 losses. My previous first round best was 23-9.
2 – I had a perfect East bracket, and missed only 1 in the South.
3 – Most importantly, all 16 of my Sweet 16 teams are still in it.

Thoughts moving forward:
1 – I wish I would have drunk the Kool-Aid on Winthrop. I saw a couple of games early on in the season where I was impressed with Notre Dame’s big men, but it just didn’t translate. It’s kind of hard to play the whole second half in foul trouble, but the Eagles played a good game as well.
2 – I mentioned that all of my second round picks are still in, and I’m not flip-flopping on any of them. I don’t think any of the changed match-ups are very significant. I’m a little worried about Wisconsin against UNLV, but I think their first half dud against TAMUCC might have woken them up.
3 – I should have seen the Duke collapse coming. I picked them because A) It seemed like everybody was picking them to lose, and I didn’t want to get caught up in the hype, B) I overestimated Paulus, and C) I’m not that high on Virginia Commonwealth. Good win for them, but get ready for a letdown against Pitt.

My Second Round Upsets:
5 Virginia Tech over 4 Southern Illinois
9 Michigan State over 1 North Carolina
6 Vanderbilt over 3 Washington State
5 Tennessee over 4 Virginia
7 Nevada over 2 Memphis

Well, the tournament starts in about an hour, so it’s about time to reveal picks. I played it pretty safe this year; in years’ past I’ve been horrible at predicting upsets. Speaking of upsets, here are the first rounders that I picked:

9 Purdue over 8 Arizona
12 Old Dominion over 5 Butler
10 Georgia Tech over 7 UNLV
9 Villanova over 8 Kentucky
9 Michigan State over 8 Marquette

I actually picked no upsets in the South. This doesn’t usually happen, but it’s not like I’ve ever gotten an entire quarter of the bracket completely right anyway. Elite Eight:

Florida
Wisconsin
Kansas
UCLA
Texas
Georgetown
Ohio State
Texas A&M

I have Florida beating UCLA, and Georgetown beating Texas A&M. Florida repeats with a 79-73 win over the Hoyas.

I also made another bracket where I picked the most ridiculous scenarios I could think of, because heaven knows something is going to happen that nobody thought of. The final four from that bracket consists of Winthrop, Gonzaga, George Washington, and Long Beach State. If it looks like my bracket is going to be busted early, I’ll be rooting for these guys.

Readers of this blog know that I cheer for many teams, but two teams are closer to me than any others: the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs. What follows is a pre-Spring Training preview of the 2007 season for the Rangers. I chose to do them first because I have tickets to the home opener at Ameriquest Field, so I am already excited and counting down the days (43!). Soon I will post a similarly formatted preview for the Cubs. As always feel free to agree or disagree with any and all assertions in the comments.

Five Things to Watch for in Spring Training

1. Will Eric Gagne be healthy?
If he is, the Rangers will have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Even without Gagne, Texas has guys like Kameron Loe and John Rheinecker that would be shoo-ins on other teams, but will have to fight for their spot on the 25-man roster this year. That can only be good.
2. Will the Rangers obtain a reliable backup catcher?
Some people within the Rangers organization are apparently slightly concerned about Miguel Ojeda as a backup. So am I. In my mind, the Rangers need to somehow acquire someone with some good solid experience that can step in and handle the staff. Catcher is by far the weakest link on this team.
3. What will Sammy look like, and how will it affect the Outfielder/DH situation?
I know that I’m biased as a Cubs fan, but I don’t like the Sosa deal. Everything Ron Washington was brought in for, Sammy is not. He’s not a good clubhouse presence, and he’s an attention-mongerer. Remember A-Rod? I worry about how the clubhouse leaders (still very young guys) will respond to Sammy’s presence. If he does make the club, one of the young, talented outfielders (probably Jason Botts) will have to spend even more time in Oklahoma City. Either Sosa needs to be out of this world amazing or he needs to go away.
4. Will the relaxed clubhouse atmosphere really result in more wins?
We’ll see this spring just how loose the guys seem. The problem with Buck is that many of the players got off to slow starts in previous years because there was an adjustment period. With a couple of key guys (Millwood, Teixeira) being notorious slow starters anyway, maybe a dose of Ron Washington can help this team pick up some wins in April and May so they won’t be out of it in September.
5. Who will be at the back end of the rotation?
Right now Robinson Tejeda is penciled in as the 4th starter (home opener!), but his spot is not exactly secure. The following guys (and possibly some more) will be competing for the final two spots: Josh Rupe, Kameron Loe, John Koronka, Edinson Volquez, and Bruce Chen. Will any of these guys step up and have an amazing spring, or will this season leave Rangers fans wishing for the days of a four-man rotation?

Evaluating Arrivals and Departures

Frank Cattalanotto
I didn’t really like Cat the first time around, but this time there’s a little more depth. When he gets injured this year, at least there will be somebody to step in for him.

Bruce Chen
When they first signed Chen, I thought he was the fifth starter. Now it looks as if he’ll be competing for a spot, and that’s good.

Eric Gagne
A healthy Eric Gagne makes the Rangers the favorites in the AL West. An unhealthy one means they could be fighting for their lives down the stretch.

Kenny Lofton
This was probably my favorite pick-up of the off-season. I know that he’s getting old, but Lofton is a reliable lead-off guy, and all he does is win. He provides invaluable veteran leadership that the team will need down the stretch. Gary Matthews, Jr. apologists will find themselves pleasantly surprised.

Brandon McCarthy
Last year, I was excited to have a legit third starter in Adam Eaton. He ended pitching well in maybe four games all year. If the pitching staff is to be improved, it’s right here with McCarthy.

Sammy Sosa
I don’t like it…right now. I’ll probably like it if Sammy can actually hit a few home runs steroid and cork free. As it stands right now, Sosa, who will be baseball’s all-time Strikeout King very soon, will be joining Brad “Swing-And-A-Miss” Wilkerson in the outfield. For the love of God, Ron, please don’t start those two on the same day. Ever.

Rod Barajas
It hurts to lose a guy like Barajas who can hit and handle pitchers. Laird has been groomed for the starting job, but now there is a lack of depth.

John Danks
I don’t know what to think about this. It seems like the team turned down very good trade offers for him, only to settle for McCarthy later on. Either way, this is one of those trades that will either make us look like geniuses or dimwits.

Mark DeRosa
His presence will certainly be missed. Daniels seemed to underrate him a little bit and let him get away, and I’m not sure that you can survive a 162 game schedule without a reliable utility infielder.

Adam Eaton
Good riddance. Go be injured for whatever other team you now play for.

Gary Matthews, Jr.
I hope for the Rangers’ sake that he was a one season wonder, because he could end up hurting us as part of the Angels. The one positive to come out of letting him go is the acquisition of Kenny Lofton.

Overall Impressions
Rotation
The pitching rotation will always be a question in Arlington as long as they don’t do anything about that crazy wind tunnel. Jon Daniels has plenty of guys competing for a job, but there is still a lack of big names.

Bullpen
As I stated before, this bullpen has the potential to be the best in the majors. They had an off year last year, so history says that they’re due.

Infield
Teixeira and Young are among the best of their respective positions. Blalock has shown flashes of brilliance. If Kinsler can avoid the sophomore slump, they should be solid. There will be major problems if any of them are injured, as Joaquin Arias seems to be the best choice for a backup. If I were Daniels, I’d wait and see what Gagne did. If he was all right, I’d dangle Akinori Otsuka, a proven closer, out on the market for a reliable catcher and a good infielder with a bat. Don’t settle for just anything, either, Jon, and for goodness’ sake, don’t get rid of Blalock.

Outfield
As long as I’m pretending to be high-ranking members of the Rangers organization, if I were Ron Washington, I’d run Cattalanotto, Lofton, and Nelson Cruz out into the field as many days out of the year as I could, and I would use Jason Botts as a DH. Sosa and Wilkerson would sit on the bench, or better yet, play in Oklahoma City. Of course, you never know who’s going to get injured or come to Spring Training twenty pounds too heavy, so how well this outfield will perform is anybody’s guess.

Prediction
The presence of Ron Washington, some veteran leadership from Kenny Lofton, and enough depth for Jon Daniels to pull a good deadline deal make for an improved Texas Rangers team. Wash is supposedly going to turn Blalock into a god at third base again, and Teixeira is talking like last year’s crawling start is out of the realm of possibility. The rotation looks to be stronger, too, which will always help. Last year’s team was 80-82, so I see them in the 88-92 win range, enough to win the division over a weaker A’s team, the geriatric Angels, and the inferior Mariners.

By the way, remember how I was going to start using my own team nicknames, TMQ-style? I would like to introduce the AL West to you: Texas Chuck Norrisses, Oakland Circus Elephants (from the logo of the late 80s/early 90s), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of America, and Seattle Compasses (also from an early 90s logo). More teams to follow.

Every year, there is a short time (this year, it’s 12 days) which I refer to as the Sports Black Hole - it is the time between the Super Bowl and The Day when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. During this Black Hole period, hockey and, to a lesser extent, basketball tide me over. Perhaps, then, this is the best time for me to write a bit about each. First, though, I want to mention the thing that is helping me cope with the Black Hole this year - umpiring.

On February 5th, the day after the Super Bowl, I stepped behind the plate for the first time and called balls and strikes. I also took my position in the field and performed umpiring duties there. It was a fairly uneventful game. I got to call a play at the plate. My strike zone was a little too small for the hometown fans, but it was consistent. We did blow a call or two. There was an infield fly that went uncalled, and a ball that should have been called foul was called fair. Nevertheless, the game went on. I am looking forward to a year (and hopefully more) of umpiring. I am proud to take this role in America’s Pasttime.

As for hockey, I have this to say: Sportswriters and television commentators need to grow up. Most of them speak as if they have been personally slighted by the NHL. Hockey? We don’t cover that inferior sport. These people are paid to cover sports, yet they only cover the ones they enjoy personally. Unfortunately, I have not been able to see as much hockey as I would like this year, although I did attend my first NHL game in October. It seems as if the NHL is committing suicide by allowing the majority of their games to be broadcast on a crappy network that’s apparently too good to be broadcast on satellite.

Having said that, this season has been an exciting one. For Stars fans, it has been frustrating. I was at the game where Steve Ott broke his leg, and that seemed to set off a steady stream of injuries that have crippled the Stars all season. Add an inconsistent Marty Turco to the equation, and it makes me more nervous as we approach the end of the season. I had all kinds of optimism going into last year’s playoffs, and it all got squelched in the first round. I don’t know if I can handle another collapse. Stay tuned…

As for basketball, I’d like to get everything I have to say about the regular season (both pro and college) in one post. So, here are my mid-February Final Four picks. As always, you never know who’s going to end up in what region, so I tried my best to come up with four teams that are fairly spread apart. I’ve got two fairly obvious picks and two underdogs, listed here in alphabetical order:

Florida
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Texas A&M

In the pros, I see only six legitimate contenders for a Finals berth: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago. If you forced me to pick right now, I would say Dallas vs. Detroit, although anything can happen in the West. I’ll probably have more to say when the regular season is up, but not until then.

On Friday, watch for a preview of both the Rangers and the Cubs.

Terry Tate. Just kidding. But seriously, every year since 2003, I have hoped that Reebok will come out with a new Office Linebacker commercial for the big game. It hasn’t happened yet, but I’m predicting a cameo by 55.

While I’m waiting for Terry Tate to grace us with his presence on Sunday, I will be rooting for the Colts. However, I have three reasons that I should want to pick the Bears: (1) It would be sweet if Danieal Manning could win one in his first season. (2) I’m ahead of my Dad by one game in our pick ‘em pool. He’s taking the Bears, so if I were to do so as well, I would automatically win. Kind of cheap, but so is kneeling the ball with time on the clock. (3) Everybody is picking the Colts to win. In this situation, it’s tempting to go with the Bears so that if they do pull it off, I’ll look smart.

I’m not going to pick the Bears. I just can’t. Brian Urlacher almost convinced me. Will he change the game? Absolutely. Will he make it hard for the Colts to move the ball and score? Absolutely. Will he be able to account for every single offensive weapon the Colts have? Absolutely not. Despite stellar play by Ray Lewis, Mike Vrabel, and, um…Who’s the Chiefs’ middle linebacker? Well, never mind about him. Anyway, Urlacher’s going to have to have a Triple T-like performance to have a chance.

Nick Harper almost convinced me. It looks like he won’t be able to play. Of course, last year, he got stabbed in the knee by his wife the night before the Colts played the Steelers and still played the whole game. But, then again, if he doesn’t play, at least it will be one of the other defensive backs running back a turnover. Note to Marlin Jackson: If you’re in the open field, and Rex Grossman is the last man left to tackle you, CUT OUTSIDE!

Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson almost convinced me. Surely, the Colts run defense will fold at some point. Right? Rob Morris, Booger McFarland, and Bob Sanders all appear to be healthy. It looks like Good Rex…oops, I mean the good Colts run defense will show up on Sunday.

Here’s what convinced me. The Colts ran through the gauntlet this year, while the Bears played six games against the rest of the NFC North. It seems that for the last couple of years, the Colts have been one of the couple teams that every league has that opposing teams throw everything at. They figure, if we can beat the Colts, we’ll make a statement. In the MLB, everybody wants to beat the Yankees and the Red Sox. In the NBA, they try to beat the Lakers and the Spurs. In the NHL, they try to beat the Red Wings. And in the NFL, the way to gain attention is to beat the Colts and the Patriots. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the Yankees, Red Sox, Lakers, Spurs, Red Wings, Colts, or Patriots are the best teams in any given year. It just means that teams rest their big players for those games, they prepare a little bit harder, break out the plays they’ve been saving in practice, etc. It means that the Yankees, Red Sox, Lakers, Spurs, Red Wings, Colts, and Patriots are battle-tested. They know what it means to win close games because those are the types of games they have to win. When you’ve constantly got a target on your back, you know how to play in the big game. On a stage this huge, there’s no holding back. The Colts are used to that kind of attitude from teams. I’m not so sure the Bears are the same way.

I’m taking the Colts, 34-21. That’s 55 total points, in honor of Number 55, Terry Tate. I guess I’m going to have to rely on a tiebreaker in our pool if the Bears win. Here’s what I think will happen: the Colts will get in front early, weather a comeback, then put the Bears away midway through the fourth quarter. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be nervous the whole game. But if Terry Tate makes an appearance, I’ll suddenly feel better about that other prediction.

Note: On Monday, I broke down the Colts and Bears by position. Today, I give five keys that must happen for each team to win. Friday, I will give my pick and make some other predictions concerning Super Bowl XLI.

Colts
1. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes must be able to run inside as well as they run the stretch play.
It’s no secret that the Colts bread and butter run play is the stretch. The problem with that this week is that Brian Urlacher is arguable the most mobile middle linebacker in the league. The Colts were able to (somewhat) neutralize Ray Lewis by running straight at him. The good thing for the Colts is that they know they can do it; they just have to execute.
2. Peyton must spread the ball around.
There’s no question that the Bears will be ready for Harrison and Wayne. But can they be ready for all of the other weapons?
3. Bob Sanders must establish himself as a run stopper.
If he can do this, he will lift a mighty heavy burden off of the rest of the defense. If he cannot, the Bears will most certainly take advantage, run it down the middle all game, and chew up clock.
4. The defense must get at least two takeaways.
You almost have to believe that the Bears will be able to get at least two, so the Colts will have to keep pace and give Peyton enough opportunities.
5. Adam Vinatieri and Hunter Smith must kick away from Devin Hester.
There were at least two games that I can think of right now that Hester won for the Bears, simply because the opposing coach was too proud to tell his punter to angle the ball out of bounds. The Colts will not be able to afford to give the Bears any kind of momentum whatsoever, and kicking the ball to this year’s most prolific returner would do just that. Lost in all the talk about their defense is the fact that their special teams were pretty bad, too.

Bears
1. Lovie Smith must run the ball early.
Let me temper this: don’t be too stubborn. That’s the mistake Herm Edwards and Brian Billick made. Not only must Lovie call run plays, but Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson better get in there and break some tackles and gain some yards. If the Bears can’t establish the run, the Colts will get the ball more, which is never a recipe for success.
2. Rex Grossman must protect the ball.
If Rex turns it over, the Colts will capitalize. I don’t care how confident the kid is on media day, if he coughs it up, the momentum will be on the Colts’ side.
3. The defense must put pressure on Peyton.
The tried and true way to beat the Colts is to force Peyton into mistakes. The Bears run a pretty basic defense with not very much blitzing, so the front four will have to do the job.
4. Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman must contain Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
If they can’t, it won’t matter if Peyton spreads the ball around. If you allow these two to run free, the Colts will win 9 times out of 10.
5. The Bears must get on the board first.
We saw the Bears come back on the Arizona Cardinals, but they were the Cardinals. If you give points to the Colts, they will step on your throat and finish you. “If you want to crown ‘em, crown ‘em!”

For the first time in my memory, two teams that I have followed closely will meet in the Super Bowl. Since I know both teams fairly well, I thought it might be fun to do a position-by-position comparison before the big game. For those of you who haven’t made your decision on the winner yet, this might be helpful. In a couple of days, I will post what I see as keys to the game for both teams, and a day or two after that I will make several predictions, one of which will be the winner of the game. Let’s get started with the most important position on the field…

QB
P. Manning
Grossman

The last time the Bears were in the Super Bowl, the opposing quarterback was Tony Eason, who isn’t exactly Peyton Manning. Manning, whose playoff shortcomings have been well-documented (and exaggerated), is capable of beating any defense. Of course, the Monsters of the Midway were able to make Drew Brees look foolish, and it’s possible they could do that to Peyton, too. The way to get to Manning is to effectively blitz and frustrate him early with takeaways. The Bears are capable of both, but Peyton looked pretty unflappable against his long-time nemesis last week. In Chicago, the question will always be, “Good Rex or Bad Rex?” The Bears defense is good enough that they can get by most opponents without needing a big game from their quarterback, but this is the Super Bowl. Yes, Trent Dilfer won one with the Ravens, but they were also playing against Kerry Collins, Jim Fassell, and the rest of the Giants. The key for Rex has always been getting the run game established. This is very doable against the Colts, but if they can stop the run and the defensive ends start flying around, it could be a long game for Rex. This is one of the more bipolar QB combos in recent Super Bowl memory. If there ends up being a noticeable difference between these two on February 4, it will be because Peyton will know the Bears defense much better than Rex knows the Colts defense.

RB
Addai/Rhodes
Jones/Benson

Despite opposition from their respective fan bases, each of these teams has stubbornly stuck to their platoon of runners. Both have obviously been successful. This is a growing trend in the NFL, and I won’t be surprised if almost every team is doing something similar in years to come. I think that most fans of the Colts (including myself) believe Joseph Addai should be the guy, but Dominic Rhodes has proven to be a good change of pace when Addai needs rest. The same thing applies to Jones and Benson. These two platoons are going up against two different run defenses, though, and it will be interesting to see how the running game gets used. In the Championship game, the Colts used the running game to grind out the clock in the middle of their comeback and keep the Patriots defense on the field. The Bears have a better run defense that New England, so that strategy may not be on the table. On the other side, Lovie may try to open up the game with a heavy run attack to see which Colts defense has shown up.

FB
Mungro
McKie

Both of these fullbacks are great blocking backs who have been utilized by their teams in the passing game. Either can be used to keep the defense honest, and one of them will probably be a target in the red zone. If you had to bet on which one would be used more, I would take Mungro, simply because he’s been utilized on a more consistent basis. Lovie might have a hard time trusting McKie with the ball in such an important game, but you never know when a defense is going to overlook somebody.

TE
Dallas Clark
Desmond Clark

The two Clarks (no relation) are two of the best tight ends in the league. Dallas has been criticized recently for his willingness to stay in and block, but unjustifiably so. He is often one of the most important people on the field for the Colts, namely when they run the stretch play. Desmond is also very important to his team, for much the same reasons. What’s intriguing is that Dallas is generally more of a nimble guy, while Desmond is just a hulking presence. Both will probably be utilized quite a bit, especially early. Desmond will be called upon to take on Bob Sanders, while Dallas will try to get one of the safeties in single coverage.

WR1
Harrison
Muhammad

Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. To compare him with Muhsin Muhammad is ridiculous. I haven’t made my pick yet (honestly), but when you line up the positions and compare them and find that most are pretty equal, the following positions jump out: QB and WR. That’s pretty dangerous if you’re a Bears fan. Still, Muhammad is capable of production, and you can’t totally write him off.

WR2
Wayne
Berrian

Reggie Wayne is probably the best number two receiver in the league. In fact, you could stick him on the Chicago Bears, and he would probably be number one. What’s amazing about both Harrison and Wayne is that they are quite willing to give up touches for the sake of the team. The reality is that by playing unselfishly, they both benefit. Wayne will probably line up against Nathan Vasher, which is as much of a mismatch that you will find in this game.

WR3
Moorehead
Davis

The one thing lacking for the Colts offense this year has been a solid number three guy. Moorehead is one of those guys who was supposed to be really good by now, but hasn’t quite broken in. He shows flashes of brilliance, but he’s not exactly the model of consistency. Davis, on the other hand, is a viable option for Rex Grossman. He will likely line up opposite Marlin Jackson, a terribly underrated player, so both of the third receivers figure to have to work very hard to make any kind of difference in this game.

OL
Glenn/Lilja/Saturday/Scott/Diem
Tait/Brown/Kreutz/Garza/Miller

Here’s a fact: You must have an outstanding offensive line to make the Super Bowl. This year’s teams provide no exception. I know little to none about the offensive line, but I know that based on reputation, Jeff Saturday and Olin Kreutz are the two best centers in the league. Both lines are outstanding in run and pass protection, and both will need to be this week.

DT
McFarland/Brock
Harris/Idonije

I know I’ve been praising Bob Sanders for boosting Indy’s defense, but Anthony McFarland is probably the best thing that happened to the Colts this year. He came in mid-stream and picked up on his old coach’s system in time to do what a defensive tackle needs to do in the Cover 2 – clog up the middle. There hasn’t been anybody capable of that job in Indy in the Tony Dungy era. The Bears, on the other hand, used to rely on Tank Johnson, who is under “house arrest,” but can somehow attend the game in Miami. Idonije and some other guys have been rotating through and done a very good job. I wonder if he’s seen an offensive line like the Colts’.

DE
Freeney/Mathis
Ogunleye/Brown

Not long ago, I listed Dwight Freeney on the NFL All-Overrated team. Why? Because he doesn’t stop the run. That doesn’t mean that he’s not a great pass rusher. He’s fast, and for some reason, tackles don’t seem to know how to handle his spin move. Ogunleye, however, is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He can get down the field and put pressure on the quarterback, but he can also pursue the run like most ends can’t.

LB
Morris/Brackett/June
Hillenmeyer/Urlacher/Briggs

The Chicago Bears have the best linebacker corps in the league. You can take the Ravens, I want the Bears. Ray Lewis is nasty, but so is Brian Urlacher. He can pursue sideline to sideline, and on the next play he will be double-covering a tight end with Danieal Manning or Todd Johnson. Urlacher is the single biggest obstacle to the Colts hoisting the Lombardi trophy, and he is the sole reason I still can’t decide who I’m going to pick. In other news, the much-maligned Rob Morris is actually part of the solution to Indy’s most recent defensive woes after being switched to starter in the playoffs.

CB
Harper/David
Tillman/Vasher

Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher get a lot of press – much more than Nick Harper or Jason David. I’m not sure Harper was in the national consciousness until his wife famously stabbed him the night before the Steelers game and Nick infamously didn’t cut outside on Ben Roethlisberger during that game. Still, he’s a very good corner. I understand the hype that Tillman gets, but I don’t quite get Nathan Vasher. If you remember, neither one of these guys could cover Steve Smith in last year’s playoffs, and if you ask me, Vasher hasn’t been the same since. Usually one of the other members of the secondary bails him out, or you would see a little more about him in the Chicago media and perhaps a little less about Rex Grossman.

SS
Bethea
Johnson

Andres Bethea has matured as the season progresses. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have often tried to pick on him, only to pay for it. He will have his hands full with the physical specimen that is Desmond Clark, but he seemed able to keep Todd Heap in check for the most part. Todd Johnson, however, had trouble with Jerramy Stevens in the Seattle game. Look for Peyton to go to Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht.

FS
Sanders
D. Manning

I have used this space to laud Bob Sanders for the impact he has had on the Colts run defense, but last Sunday, he proved that he is a boost to the pass defense as well. For my Dallas fans, I like to say that Sanders is Roy Williams, except that he can cover. Manning has also done a superb job this year. He made an impact early on in the season and has helped his team win a few close games. Playing for Chicago has allowed him to take calculated risks, most of which have paid off. He is a factor in the turnover game, and could play a major role.

Nickelback
Jackson
R. Manning, Jr.

Ricky Manning, Jr. was an adequate corner for Carolina last year, but has really flourished in his new role with his new team. The outstanding play of the rest of the secondary has allowed him to be in position for key interceptions throughout the year. Marlin Jackson received some attention last week for his fourth quarter pick of Tom Brady, which was the first time most people had heard of him. Actually, Jackson was drafted last year in the first round to help plug the holes in Indy’s soft defense. His presence has helped the Colts have one of the top passing defenses in the league. Both of these DBs are very effective and will help their respective defense in passing situations. If there are a lot of punts and field goals in this year’s Super Bowl, it will be because these guys were effective in shutting down multiple receiver sets on third down.

K
Vinatieri
Gould

Adam Vinatieri is certainly a very good kicker, but Robbie Gould is just about as good. Both can hit field goals from 45+ on a fairly consistent basis, and both are effective at locating kickoffs deep. When it comes down to a crucial situation at the end of a game, I’d feel better having Vinatieri out there, but that doesn’t mean that Gould couldn’t get it done, too.

P
Smith
Maynard

Let’s go with pure stats on this one. Hunter Smith punted 47 times in 2006 for a 44.4 average, with a long of 61. He was blocked once, had 5 touchbacks (10.6%), and 14 inside the 20 (29.8%). His net punting average was 35.3. Brad Maynard punted 77 times (much larger sample) in 2006 for a 44.2 average, with a long of 65. He was not blocked, had 7 touchbacks (9.1%), and 24 inside the 20 (31.2%). His net punting average was 37.6. Smith was not forced to make any tackles for his team this year, while Maynard was put in that situation three times. I couldn’t find any stats for this, but it doesn’t seem like either team gave up a punt return this year. Slight edge goes to Maynard for punting skills, although Chicago was forced to punt 1.63 times more than Indianapolis (almost an entire standard deviation, if I remember my statistics right).

On an unrelated note, I maintain that the best position to play in the National Football League would be punter. If you were to take the consensus best punter and consensus worst punter in the league (Can’t think of whom that might be? Point made.) and compared their statistics side by side, they wouldn’t be that different. They don’t have to deal with game ending situations like kickers do, and they maintain anonymity. I watched several Bears games this season and I still had to look up the punter’s name, regardless of the fact that he appeared 77 times.

KR/PR
Wilkins
Hester

To paraphrase that Bears radio announcer, Devin Hester is ridiculous. I don’t see Dungy giving him much of a chance. Lovie has no reason not to kick to Wilkins, but he has the capability of being a game-changer. Hester was drafted by the Bears in the hopes that he would be an effective returner, which makes this a good time to point out that both teams in Super Bowl XLI had very good drafts this year (and last year), coming up with guys who were able to have a significant impact right away. There’s no getting around it; teams must draft well (and not just early in the first round) to be successful in the NFL. By the way, if the Bears end up having to rely on Hester’s services in pass coverage, the Colts will have no problem putting six points on the board almost every drive. When he had to play nickel back for the suspended Ricky Manning, Jr. against St. Louis in Week 14, the Rams exploited the mismatch every time he was on the field.

There it is. Let me know if you disagree or if I have left anything out. Come back in a couple of days for more Super Bowl.

Well, we’re down to the final four. Three of the teams left are teams I’ve been cheering for this year, and the other one is one I can’t stand. One of these teams will be the Super Bowl champion, and I think I will vomit if it is the Patriots. This is a tough week for picking winners, as most Championship weeks are. There’s so much build-up this time around, especially in the AFC. It will be fun to find out if both games can live up to their billing. Let’s start in the NFC.

Bears-Saints
I’ve been rooting for both teams this year, for very different reasons. ACU’s own Danieal Manning has been doing a great job in his rookie season starting at Free Safety for the Bears. One article I read at the beginning of the season (I’d link to it, but the article is no longer free) called him “a promising young player that covers like a cornerback and hits like a linebacker.” What an endorsement. I’ve also been cheering for the Saints because of the Katrina factor. When I was in the New Orleans area this summer, the fact that the team was coming back at all was a source of excitement. Nobody expected they’d do this well. Ultimately, I’d like the Saints to win because I think America needs to continue to hear stories from Hurricane Katrina. I think they will get it done. In a shootout, which is a possibility, the Bears won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. I’m not sure how high each team will go, but the Saints win by two field goals. Look for Drew Brees to frustrate Brian Urlacher.

Colts-Patriots
I’m scared about this weekend, for three reasons: (1) If the Colts can’t pull it off now, can they ever? (2) Earlier in the postseason, the Colts performed well partly because they felt they were underdogs. Now it might be tempting for them to come out and think that they deserve it. (3) Recent history aside, I’m still worried about the run defense. Having said that, I’m still confident. Even if Rodney Harrison is able to play, the Patriots’ secondary is still very beatable. I’m feeling a rant coming. If you don’t want to read it, skip the next paragraph.

It’s always driven me nuts that Tom Brady gets all the credit for the success of the Patriots. Weren’t they the team that chose to be introduced all together at the Super Bowl? Yet, when Adam Vinatieri or the Patriots defense win a game for the Patriots (or the ref calls a “tuck rule” or John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds or Donovan McNabb throws up on the final drive), Brady gets praised. “His” playoff record is 12-1. After last week’s game, which was horrible, Scott Van Pelt was moved to say, “In the end, Tom Brady was just better.” The Chargers missed a field goal! Sean Salisbury, who has always slurped up to Brady said, “This game shows why Tom Brady is the most clutch quarterback in playoff history.” Are you kidding me? Read what I wrote last week, and tell me if I was right.

In any case, I’m taking the Colts. It will be close for a half, but the Colts O will come out and put it away sometime in the early fourth quarter, making the RCA Dome a rockin’ place. All of this will set up…

Super Bowl XLI: Colts-Saints
Inevitably, this game would come to be known as “The Archie Manning Bowl.” So much publicity would surround the Manning family even I would get tired of it. Media circus aside, this would be a great game. Both teams, if they won this week, would come in with all kinds of momentum. Both offenses would have field days. Most importantly, both teams would really, truly feel like they needed the win. What a dream match-up.

I went 2-2 last week, although you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys should have won.  Good riddance.  So, two of my matchups stood up: Philadelphia @ New Orleans and Indianapolis @ Baltimore.  Let’s deal with those two first, because I’m flip-flopping on one of them (guess which one?).  Here we go:

NFC 

#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans

Apparently it doesn’t matter who Andy Reid puts out on the field; the Eagles just win football games.  But they won’t win this one.  In their regular season meeting, Sean Payton outcoached Reid in a close one that I was originally mad about.  The New Orleans Saints will play to win the game in the Superdome, and they will be successful.  I wish I could be there.

AFC

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore

Why am I changing my pick?  Two very important things happened last week that I, as a Colts fan, had been hoping for all year: 1 - Bob Sanders played.  I’ve always thought he was the difference maker on that defense, and it turns out that was true.  2 - Joseph Addai got the start.  Indy would have been good for 2 more wins this year if Tony Dungy hadn’t been so committed to Dominic Rhodes.  It was a smart move, though.  Addai is fresh, and it’s not like the Colts didn’t make it here.  The Ravens have been making stupid comments about Addai this week.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, you can’t get cocky against the Colts’ O.  Quick trivia question: What DB did Peyton beat to get his 49th TD pass a couple of years ago?  Chris McAllister.  By the way, Steve McNair isn’t the quarterback he was when he and Manning shared the MVP.

Two of the match-ups changed.  In the playoffs, match-ups are more important (usually) than how good a team is.

NFC

#4 Seattle @ #1 Chicago

Seattle seems to be the team that everybody’s overlooking.  I think that’s pretty justifiable, but it’s always dangerous.  The wild card in this game that a lot of people are talking about is Rex Grossman.  That’s the wrong place to put the emphasis.  If Seattle can establish the run game, get the Bears spread out, and exploit the corners, they will win.  It won’t happen.

AFC

#4 New England @ #1 San Diego

A lot of people are hyping this game up big-time.  The reasoning is that New England always does well in the postseason, they ended strong, bla bla bla.  Remember, those were relatively weak teams.  San Diego is not a weak team by any stretch.  Even if Bill Belichick were to live up to his genius label, it wouldn’t matter.  You cannot gameplan a tackle, and LT doesn’t just lie down for people.  To beat the Chargers, you have to have a passing game, and that’s the Pats weakness, Word Incarnate in Tom Brady notwithstanding.  Remember last week, when Peyton went 30/38 with one interception and two more because his receiver ran the wrong route?  Everybody talked about how horrible his game was.  Tom Brady will have a much worse game than that, but he’ll be praised for his performance if his defense can bail him out like in the past.