Just for Sport

I haven’t posted my picks since Week 7 (schoolwork started to catch up to me), and since then I fell from 62-25 (.713) to 150-106 (.586). It’s not as bad as it looks, since I didn’t get my Week 12 picks in on time and went 0-16 that week. Anyway, I ended up tying with my father in our challenge after mounting a five week comeback. These picks have to be right, since we will be using the entire playoffs as a tiebreaker.

NFC Wild Card
#6 NY Giants @ #3 Philadelphia
These two split their regular season matchups, with the Giants winning in Week 2 and the Eagles taking it in Week 15. These teams know each other very well, which means a lot of what happens here will come down to coaching. In that case, I take Andy Reid over Tom Coughlin every time.

#5 Dallas @ #4 Seattle
A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure the Cowboys could go deep in the playoffs. Now it seems like the rest of the league is catching up to Romo, and the Seahawks make for a pretty tough first round opponent. They have what many believe to be the best home field advantage in the league. However, Mike Holmgren showed me something this week: He doesn’t believe in his team. Why else would he talk all week as if Shaun Alexander weren’t playing, and then give him the ball 29 times…and in a meaningless game against the Bucs? Sure, the Cowboys had something to play for and lost to a horrible team, but riding your players hard unnecessarily? This happens at least once every year, and that team invariably loses.

AFC Wild Card
#6 Kansas City @ #3 Indianapolis
This is Indy’s weakest year in a long time, but I can’t see them losing to Herm Edwards in the playoffs. Larry Johnson will certainly tear up that run defense, but Peyton will also carve up the Chief’s secondary. Ty Law can’t cover anybody, and you can bet that even if it is close, Herm will find a way to mismanage the clock and give it to the Colts. By the way, (and I don’t want to overstate this) if Bob Sanders can play, the run defense will be twice as good. I know that’s not saying a lot, but still.

#5 New York Jets @ #4 New England
Once again, these two teams split their regular season meetings. The Patriots fended off a Jets comeback in Week 2, and the Jets took Week 10 in a close one. Here’s my beef: The talking heads still speak of New England as if they were the perfect team. They’ve got terrific chemistry, any ball Tom Brady throws turns to gold, Belichick deserves a Nobel prize, they’ve got loads more class than anybody, etc. In the past year, they’ve shown me none of these qualities. In the first round last year, they kept their starters in a ran up the score against Jacksonville. Then karma caught up to them and they lost to the Broncos. They whined and whined about the Champ Bailey play. Maybe they were justified, but show me how that means they have class. Tom Brady can’t hit an open receiver (it’s not the receivers’ fault, stop giving him a free pass), and in Week 10 the Jets went into Gillette and beat the Pats in a game Belichick desperately wanted to win. And just when you hadn’t heard any whining in a while, all the players got up in arms over an injury to an injury-prone player (Harrison) that happened on a routine play. It’s bad news when that’s what the locker room is trying to rally around. The Jets defense gets it done in this one. Just as I wrote this, some guy on Cold Pizza said the “Jets had no chance to win” and “Tom Brady has been disrespected this year”. Give me a break.

NFC Divisional Playoff
#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans
Remember back in September, when everybody thought that the Falcons would come into the Superdome and ruin the Saints first home game? Then U2 came in and New Orleans played out of their minds in front of a rowdy crowd. The Saints have ridden that momentum all the way through the season, and Jeff Garcia is not going to be the person to take that away.

#5 Dallas @ #1 Chicago
After Dallas upsets Seattle on the road, they will face the *real* best home field advantage in the league. I’m sure a lot of people have Chicago one and done because of the inconsistent play of Rex Grossman, but the defense and special teams will more than make up for it against Dallas.

AFC Divisional Playoff
#5 NY Jets @ #1 San Diego
Mangini can get the Jets up for the game against New England, but San Diego is too talented to be overcome by willpower alone. The Jets have a good defense, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons; they may not even have to use them all.

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore
I’ve been dumping on Steve McNair all year long. I’m still not a believer, but he’s more than able to get it done against this defense. Unlike Kansas City, they have multiple weapons and will be able to drive the ball and keep Manning off the field.

NFC Championship
#2 New Orleans @ #1 Chicago
At different times this season, I have been a believer in each of these teams. I’m not completely sold on the Saints, but I believe in Drew Brees.

AFC Championship
#2 Baltimore @ #1 San Diego
This, I believe, is where McNair falters. San Diego’s secondary has always been suspect, but pressure from the other side of the ball will force Steve into mistakes.

Super Bowl XLI
New Orleans vs. San Diego
It will be a hard fought game, but LaDainian Tomlinson will emerge from his record-breaking season as the Super Bowl MVP. 34-28.

I was playing for the seventh grade football team when I learned first-hand that the best team doesn’t always win. For the second game of the season, we played another small town team, and we were killing them. We were tackling harder, we were running the ball down their throats, and they couldn’t move the ball at all. There were a couple of breaks that just didn’t go our way. One of their players stripped the ball from our running back after he was already down, they ran back a kickoff, and kicked an onside kick at the end of the game and ran out the clock to seal the deal. Our coach was probably the maddest about the last one, because its apparently against the code of Jr. High coaches to run trick plays. Anyway, he gave us a speech about outplaying the other team but still being outscored, probably just to make us feel better. I took it to heart, however. I had played effectively on both sides of the ball, and I was upset most when the other team simply ran out the clock. We had won that game, but they got the W. Ever since then, my biggest complaint about the game of football has been the clock. As a matter of fact, I’ve never been a fan of the clock in any sport. It makes the winning team way too conservative. In my mind, if you’re not truly competing for the duration of the game, it’s a cheap win. This is one of many reasons that I prefer baseball. It’s never to a baseball team’s advantage to stop trying to score runs, or worse, for the losing team to let the other team score so they’ll actually have an opportunity at the end of the game. It’s also why I find college football’s overtime system to be far superior, and the current overtime format of hockey satisfying. Finally, it’s why I found myself getting mad at Sean Payton last week. The Saints actually kneeled the ball for the last two minutes in order to win the game. Why are we rewarding teams for being passive and not playing the game? I’m not really mad at Payton, though. He’s just coaching the game given the rules. I’m just bitter about the rules, because too many football games come down to [shudder] clock management. I know it will never change, and the NFL will never get rid of kickers, but this kind of play will never truly determine the best team, in my mind. Am I just a bitter person because I lost that game in seventh grade and had a losing record last week? Probably. But you know I have a point…

This week, the picks will be shorter. Two reasons: (A) my little rant above is enough space anyway, and (B) I need to get better about going with my instinct (see last week). So, here it is. Winners are in italics.

Last Week: 5-8 (.385)
Total: 62-25 (.713)

Carolina @ Cincinnati
Steve Smith is too good for a struggling Bengals team.

Detroit @ NY Jets
It’ll take more than one game for me to be sold on the Lions, especially on the road.

Green Bay @ Miami
I’m probably one of the few who still thinks Miami has a shot in that weak division.

Jacksonville @ Houston
With Indy looking vulnerable, the Jaguars have to be smelling blood.

New England @ Buffalo
I’ve been a believer in Losman before, and he’s made me look foolish. No more.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Only as long as Gruden doesn’t kneel the ball for a game-winning field goal - and he would never do that in a million years.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
No way Mike Vick gets it done against this defense.

San Diego @ Kansas City
Philip Rivers is going strong, and the Chiefs’ defense was exposed last week.

Denver @ Cleveland
It will only be a matter of time before somebody puts some points up on this defense, but the Browns aren’t the team to do it.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are hungover after last week’s collapse, but the Raiders are what the doctor ordered.

Minnesota @ Seattle
The addition (and good play) of Deion Branch has to make Seattle a Super Bowl favorite, if Shaun Alexander will ever come back.

Washington @ Indianapolis
McFarland gets his first test against Portis and the boys. Even if he fails, Peyton can beat the Redskins blindfolded.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Why all the Tiki Barber talk? To create a diversion from all of their other problems.

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 6, I’m 6-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland. W 13-3
Week 7: JACKSONVILLE, vs. Houston.

Generally, when I make my picks each week, I do my best to go with my instinct. I have found that overanalyzing a game can often make you miss the big picture. That’s why, when I got to this week’s games, I had a lot of trouble. There were only four or five games that I had a strong gut feel about, and that makes me nervous. Am I reading too much into Atlanta’s red zone stats? Is the fact that Detroit’s secondary horrible really enough for the Bills to win? This week was a lot tougher. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident that I can improve my record once again. You heard it here: 12-1. Which one will I get wrong? If I knew that, I wouldn’t get it wrong.

Last Week: 12-2 (.857)
Overall: 57-17 (.770)

Buffalo @ Detroit
What an ugly game to start off with. You think it’s easy to pick this game? Each team’s got an inconsistent quarterback. Both Kitna and Losman have been at the bottom and the top of their games at some point in this young season. Thus, I’m going with the quarterback who’s set up in the best position to win. Detroit’s secondary is horrible, so it’s got to be J.P. Losman and the Bills. Plus they’ve got Willis. Pick: Buffalo

Houston @ Dallas
It’s a shame that this game doesn’t happen more often. You might not think so now, but the next time these two meet, I believe the playing field will be more even. Don’t forget that Houston won its first game as a franchise against the ‘Boys. Not this week, though. Houston has a little bit of momentum and a bye week, but the Cowboys have Bill Parcells and something to prove. Pick: Dallas

Carolina @ Baltimore
Since I started writing this post, I have flip-flopped on this game twice. Part of me thinks that the loss of DeAngelo Williams really hurts the Panthers. The other part of me wants Steve McNair to fail so I can look really smart. Honestly, though, the Ravens have an awesome defense that can keep them in any game. Carolina’s defense is very good also, and should give McNair fits, but they will not be able to run and Jake Delhomme will struggle. Baltimore ekes it out at the end. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants @ Atlanta
Get ready for a shoot-out. Neither team has an outstanding defense, and both can light up the scoreboard, albeit in different ways. Atlanta’s rushing attack is potent as always, but getting rid of T.J. Duckett has, in my opinion, had more impact than people want to talk about. You want proof? The Falcons are last in the NFL in red zone offense. In a game where the two-minute drill is likely to make a difference, I’ll take Eli Manning over Mike Vick. Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee @ Washington
Which Washington team is going to show up? In my opinion, the one that beat Jacksonville. Why? Clinton Portis is getting better. More than that, though, they’re playing the Titans, an extremely young team that would probably be getting more notice as an extremely bad team if it weren’t for the Lions and the Raiders. Pick: Washington

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay
This one seems pretty simple. Aside from the game in New England, the Bengals have shown that they deserve their reputation as a team that could run up the score any given week – and they haven’t even gotten Chad Johnson really involved yet. I’m of the opinion that Bruce Gradkowski is actually an upgrade from Chris Simms, but Tampa Bay’s defense has been surprisingly inept thus far. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ St. Louis
St. Louis is quite possibly one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They don’t turn the ball overall, they’re balanced on offense, and their defense can shut teams down. Seattle will once again be without Shaun Alexander, which really hurts their chances. When the NFC West comes down to a difference of one or two games, this injury will prove to be one of great impact. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
At one point, I said something about not picking against the Saints in the Superdome this year. That rule worked out for me last week, when I wanted to pick the Bucs and didn’t. This week, though, I find it hard to pick against the red-hot Eagles, whom I believe to be in the top 5 in the league. Even if Westbrook doesn’t start (and who knows if he will?), Philly’s got the tools to overwhelm the Saints, even in the Superdome. Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego @ San Francisco
Philip Rivers’ coming-out party will continue this week. Expectations are continually being raised for the Chargers, and I see little chance of a let-down against an improving, but still mediocre team. Alex Smith still needs to prove himself to me. Pick: San Diego

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Damon Huard, not Dante Hall, is the X-Factor in this game. If he can continue to play out of his mind, he will send the defending champs to 1-4. Pittsburgh just looks bad right now, and it’s going to take a miracle to get out of that funk. And you know what? I’m loving it! My two younger brothers’ favorite teams (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) have a combined 1 win through Week 5, and it’s not looking like they’ll have any more next week. Pick: Kansas City

Miami @ NY Jets
These teams, on the whole, aren’t very good. The Jets played the Colts well, but don’t read too much into that, because so did the Titans. They promptly tanked against the Chiefs, proving that when they face a good defense, they can’t move the ball. For all the talk about Culpepper in Miami, people have missed that the Dolphins have a great defense that has actually kept them in games. With Harrington, I think they have a shot here. Pick: Miami

Oakland @ Denver
I’m not sure this needs an explanation. If Denver doesn’t win by at least 20, I will be sorely disappointed. Seriously. Pick: Denver

Chicago @ Arizona
This one seems pretty simple as well. Many are calling Chicago the most complete team in the NFL. I’m not worried about Chicago losing; what I want to know is: Will Daniael Manning get some credit during the stupid new MNF player intros? Will he get a pick? My answers are no and yes. Pick: Chicago

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 5, I’m 5-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland.

Let’s dispense with the pleasantries; on to the predictions.

American League

Both of my AL picks are gone, including my World Series pick. This is a curse, in that I was wrong, but it is also a blessing, because I get to start over. So what did we learn from the ALDS’s (What’s the correct grammar here?)? I’ve got 5 observations:

1 – Minnesota and Oakland both have horrible stadiums. Both teams share with their respective football team, which is good for neither sport. The Metrodome is much more adaptable than McAfee Stadium at masking that fact, except for the walls that are made out of blue Saran Wrap. By contrast, the Tigers and the Yankees showdown featured two excellent stadiums.

2 – A-Rod was horrible, but so was the rest of the Yankee line-up, a fact which has left many questioning the leadership of the team. Many are pointing to Torre, but I think the responsibility falls on Derek Jeter. Maybe at one point, he was a good captain, but now I see him as a guy who thinks he’s untouchable by the media – and unfortunately, he is. He’s had a nonchalant attitude throughout the postseason, as if there’s nothing to worry about until the World Series. Just because you’re the Yankees doesn’t mean you get a free pass through the playoffs.

3 – Jeremy Bonderman was amazing in a pennant-clinching win for the Detroit Tigers. I never, ever thought I would write that sentence. You think it’s easy to predict what’s going to happen in a 162-game season and subsequent playoffs? That’s why you play the games.

4 – Moneyball finally won something. Actually, Frank Thomas, who is the anti-Moneyball, won something for an otherwise mediocre team. Billy Beane should send the White Sox a thank you card for treating Thomas like crap.

5 – I really should have paid attention to the abominable finish the Twins had to the regular season. I didn’t put much stock into the momentum factor when I made my prediction, a cardinal sin. It turns out that getting swept by the Devil Rays at the end of the season means you will probably get swept by a playoff team next. By the way, have you ever seen a more sorrowful home run trot than Justin Morneau’s in the 9th inning of Game 3? What a shame for him to make that error after an MVP type season.

So who advances to the World Series? It’s easy to justify either team. The Athletics were able to defeat Santana, the proven veteran, and Liriano, the rookie phenom, so why couldn’t they also beat Rogers and Verlander? On the other hand, the Tigers pitching shut down what many were calling “the greatest lineup ever assembled” rather handily. I believe the Tigers advance because of five (really four) factors: (1) Jim Leyland. (2) Curtis Granderson. (3) Comerica Park vs. McAfee Stadium. (4) A’s lack of a third pitcher.

National League

My two teams advanced, so I suppose that I am bound by my previous picks. This isn’t such a bad thing, but I’m a little uneasy. The Mets are still a very good team, but without Pedro, El Duque, and possibly now Cliff Floyd, it’s looking like the Cardinals might get a free pass. But first, what did we learn?

1 – Is there a bigger joke in the Major Leagues than the NL West? I was impressed that they got two teams into the postseason, but did either team have a shot? Neither one looked like they had played a big game all season long.

2 – Chris Young was the lone bright spot for the Padres, who really looked horrible against a team with no momentum. Young is going to win a Cy Young one day, especially if he can stay in San Diego and pitch at Petco Park.

3 – Speaking of individual performances, what about Albert Pujols? If he continues to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them through postseason after postseason, he will be considered one of the all-time greats.

4 – Every season, it seems that one team grabs the label of “Team of Destiny” and decides to own it. This season’s team is the Mets. Our pitchers are injured? We’ll just win. Everybody’s talking about the other team in our town? We’ll just win. Willie Randolph has this team playing to its full potential.

5 – Everybody on the Dodgers seemed to act like they didn’t belong in the playoffs. Even the fans had an air about them that said, “We really made it? What now?” There was one point in the last game when Grady Little went out to the mound, and the stadium went deathly silent. Everybody was waiting for something to get screwed up, and when you play afraid, you lose.

I picked the Mets, and I’m sticking to it. The Cardinals still have Pujols, but the Mets have a team, and that will be the difference. In my opinion, it’s not going to matter, since the National League is so much weaker than the American League on the whole. In the middle of the season, I decided that the Mets would be the only team that had a chance against an AL team. Once again, with their losses it won’t be a very competitive series. So you can see where my new World Series pick is going…Tigers over Mets. See you in a week or two.

Sorry for my lack of an NHL preview post. As I started to do research, I realized that I know nothing about any team except for the Stars, and I don’t even know much about that. This weekend I’m in class, so maybe next week I’ll tackle the Stars and some more baseball stuff. For now, though, there are this week’s NFL picks.

Last Week’s Record: 11-3 (.786)
Overall: 45-15 (.667)

Buffalo @ Chicago
It’s simple: Buffalo is improving, and J.P. Losman is starting to look like a real quarterback. But Chicago looks really good, and it’s not going to be enough. Look for Grossman to play really well again. This stretch of really weak schedule is going to give this offense a lot of confidence, which can be dangerous in the post-season. Pick: Chicago

Cleveland @ Carolina
Carolina gets the benefit of facing Cleveland as a warm-up for the Ravens in Week 6. I picked up Charlie Frye for my fantasy team because he’s a fairly consistent quarterback statistically, but a borderline fantasy quarterback does not a good team make. I’m looking at this game to see how Carolina does so I can handicap next week’s game. They’ve looked good since the return of Steve Smith, and I want to know if it’s for real. Pick: Carolina

Detroit @ Minnesota
I’m not as high on Minnesota as a lot of people seem to be, but they’re still worlds better than the lowly Lions. Roy Williams has been very vocal this week, so experience says they will lose. The Brad Johnson love-fest will continue, at least for the MNF crew, but fans won’t be able to justify it for long. Pick: Minnesota

Miami @ New England
When I first looked at the season, I was convinced that this would be a key match-up that could potentially decide the AFC East. Now, it’s looking like this will be a blowout. Miami has a chance because there defense hasn’t been all that bad, and Tom Brady has no receivers, but Daunte and the boys don’t seem to have a shot. Pick: New England

St. Louis @ Green Bay
Here’s what you need to know about this match-up: St. Louis has eight interceptions (er, “gunslings”) through four games, and Brett Favre hasn’t lost his job yet. I don’t think it’s going to be too much longer before Aaron Rodgers gets his shot. If St. Louis can be effective with their run game, they should dominate the clock and the game. Pick: St. Louis

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Saints finish up their NFC South swing at home against the Bucs. At first glance, it’s easy to say that the Bucs will lose because they’ve got their back-up in. Please remember, though, that Chris Simms was the starter, and he was doing well. It’s obviously the system that’s working out for Tampa Bay quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Drew Brees is doing quite well, and the Saints will have a decided home field advantage. Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
I don’t think I know anybody who thinks Tennessee has a chance here. Vince Young, Kerry Collins, it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. Until somebody beats Indianapolis in a regular season game that matters (again, nobody has in the last 25 games), I will continue to pick them. Pick: Indianapolis

Washington @ NY Giants
The Giants have had two weeks to think about the load they dropped in Seattle. I don’t think it will be enough. Clinton Portis is getting his groove back, which opens up the field for Brunell. It’s tough for a team to come back after such a devastating loss, even after a bye week, and I can’t see Eli Manning pick up the team and carry them on his back. Pick: Washington

Kansas City @ Arizona
I’m not feeling Matt Leinart just yet. This game may be enough to prove the problem wasn’t Kurt Warner, but the offensive line. The Cardinals might give them a game, but they are going up against a very underrated defense. By the way, who would have thought that Damon Huard would do this well in place of Trent Green? Pick: Kansas City

NY Jets @ Jacksonville
Here are two teams on the rise that want to make a statement. Jacksonville had an impressive win against the Steelers two weeks ago, and New York almost pulled it off against Indy last week. This one should come down to the wire. I’m going with Jacksonville because of the home field advantage and questionable status of Laveranues Coles. Pick: Jacksonville

Oakland @ San Francisco
San Francisco is probably Oakland’s best chance to avoid the 0-16 season of ignominy that they seem to be destined for. San Francisco presents a relatively favorable match-up for the Raiders, but…it’s not going to happen. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas @ Philadelphia
A whole lot of ink has been wasted on T.O.’s return to Philly, creating a huge distraction from what ought to be a really good game between the top two teams in the NFC East. If distractions are a factor, I think they might bother Philly more. The entire team has to put up with this junk, and T.O. has always been able to handle criticism with a big game. All things being equal, I still think the Cowboys have an advantage. Westbrook isn’t going to be 100% (if he plays at all), and the Cowboys have what it takes to handle the Philly receivers. Pick: Dallas

Pittsburgh @ San Diego
I’ve gone back and forth on this game at least three times. These are great teams, but Roethlisberger has struggled, and Rivers hasn’t been tested. It’s tough to go against Cowher, because I don’t think Pittsburgh is a 1-3 team, but I believe that San Diego has the tools to take them out unless Big Ben plays out of his mind. Pick: San Diego

Baltimore @ Denver
It’s time for me to give Steve McNair some credit. Last week, I picked San Diego to win because I didn’t think McNair could get it done. Well, he did. I was wrong. Okay, now that we’ve got that out of the way, I don’t think McNair will get it done this week against the Broncos. The offensive line is way too suspect, and they haven’t been able to get the run game going. The defense is still very good, but not invincible. This team reminds me a lot of last year’s Bears. If the offense can score more than 14 points, they’ve got the win. Denver had a bye week to get ready, and you can bet that Mike Shanahan will try to control the clock and exploit some over-pursuit by the Ravens to wear them out in the thin air. Plummer has an anomalous game and the Broncos come out on top. Pick: Denver

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 4, I’m 4-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland.

It’s an amazing time for the sports fan. The NFL is at the quarter pole, hockey starts tomorrow, and the baseball playoffs get underway today. Also, there are several specific issues to address: Dusty Baker, Albert Haynesworth, and Tiger Woods. Did I mention that basketball’s not on the radar yet (and that’s a good thing)? I’m just kidding…sort of. I’ll try my best to have several posts over the next couple of days; lots of predictions, some recaps, and plenty of commentary. This post: MLB playoffs preview. I’ll look at the first round match-ups, and then predict winners all the way to the Series. I plan on posting between every round. Picks are in bold.

2006 First Round Match-ups

American League

Minnesota (96-66) vs. Oakland (93-69)

Let me put it simply: I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon that says that Oakland cannot win in the playoffs. They have no line-up, except for Frank Thomas, and one pitcher. Minnesota, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the league. They definitely have the pitching to get it done in the playoffs, they’re defensively sound, and they’re getting production from nearly every position.

Detroit (95-67) vs. New York (97-65)
Detroit had a very strong showing at the beginning of the season, but their recent slump hurts them. Additionally, their bullpen just won’t be enough. I’m not sold on Todd Jones. I just don’t think what the Tigers can come up with will be able to compete with the Yankees, who have few weaknesses. If a New York starter not named Wang can step up consistently and they get some help from the middle relief, it will be hard to stop them.

National League

San Diego (88-74) vs. St. Louis (83-78)
St. Louis comes into this thing in bad shape. They are reeling from that near-historic collapse, and their window of opportunity seems to be closing. This year’s surprise, San Diego, benefited from some strong trades this year, and that pitching staff could carry them. But, as long as St. Louis has Pujols, the window of opportunity is open. The Padre staff will have a lot to overcome here.

Los Angeles (88-74) vs. New York (97-65)
This is tough. The Mets blew away the rest of the National League this year, but news that Pedro’s out for the playoffs really hurts their chances. The Dodgers are riding a ton of second-half momentum and have tons of playoff experience. I feel like the winner of this series is going to take the pennant. In a short series, I’ll go with the talent.

Championship Series
AL
Minnesota over New York
NL
New York over St. Louis

World Series
Minnesota over New York

This week I am starting what will hopefully become a Thursday tradition on this site by revealing my picks for this week’s NFL games. I don’t mess around with the spread, just who’s going to win. If it goes well, and my brothers don’t use this information against me in our Pick ‘Em league (which I am already dominating), it will become a weekly feature. Enjoy the picks, and let me know what you think.

Last Week: 13-1 (.929)
Through Week 3: 34-12 (.739)

Arizona @ Atlanta
This game is a case of two teams that are reeling. Arizona had all kinds of unreasonable expectations placed upon them before the season started, and they had a really tough loss this week. Kurt Warner’s play has caused a quarterback controversy, and Denny Green apparently doesn’t have any idea about how to handle it. Atlanta’s got it’s own problems. They were really set up to fail last Monday – and they did. It wasn’t just fate on the Saints side though; Vick and the boys contributed to their own demise. Vick has been characteristically inconsistent, and when the running game can’t pick them up, it’s game over. I really believe that the Falcons will be able to bounce back from a tough week better than the inexperienced Cardinals can. Pick: Atlanta

Dallas @ Tennessee
Another game, another quarterback controversy. The fact is that the Titans don’t have much chance of beating anybody right now, regardless of who’s under center. Kerry Collins gives them the best chance of winning right now, but not against the Cowboys, distractions aside. On a related note, I cannot believe the conclusions that the media was ready to jump to on Wednesday. When did news reporting agencies become rumor mills? Go to the primary source! Enough soapbox, on to the next game. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis @ New York Jets
Eric Mangini has done great things with the Jets, and Chad Pennington is playing out of his mind, but I have a rule: Don’t bet against the Colts during the regular season in a game that counts unless they give you a reason not to do so. In their last 24 games that mattered for standings or playoff seeding, Indianapolis has won all 24. They’re clicking on all cylinders, and the Jets aren’t going to be a team that can stand in their way. Pick: Indianapolis

Miami @ Houston
I could have sworn to you that Miami would have busted out last week. Several national columnists ripped Culpepper before the Dolphins took on the Titans, so I fully expected Daunte and the boys to come out and make a statement. Instead, they barely got past the hapless Titans. On the other side, I think it’s great for the Texans that they have a new coach. If Capers had called out the team in the media, it would have been same-old, same-old. Maybe with some new blood the veterans will start to pay attention. It may not seem like it, but I really think Houston is on the way up. So what happens when a bad team that is on the way up hosts a mediocre team that is on the way down? That’s right – upset. Pick: Houston

Minnesota @ Buffalo
There’s no doubt that Minnesota played Chicago, a very good team, well last week. What I do doubt is the MNF crew’s blind faith in Brad Johnson. Yes, he’s a solid veteran. He still doesn’t have anybody to throw to. I’m not exactly a J.P. Losman disciple, but the Bills did put up 475 total yards on the Jets last week. If they can hang on to the ball, they should prevail at home. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans @ Carolina
I can’t believe that the Saints are the only undefeated team in the NFC South. I had some serious doubts going into the season about Drew Brees in New Orleans, but he’s proven himself. I have to say this, because I’m so biased against Reggie Bush it makes me sick to listen to any of the talking heads worship him: Stop saying that he’s doing a great job! He’s averaging 41.7 yards/game on the ground. I could elaborate for several paragraphs; lucky for you I’m using discretion here. Now, about Carolina: I still can’t figure them out. Steve Smith’s mere presence on the field makes them infinitely better. New Orleans has been great, but playing defense against Charlie Frye, Brett Favre with no receivers, and Mike Vick is way different that playing defense against Jake Delhomme with a healthy Steve Smith on one side and Keyshawn on the other. Pick: Carolina

San Diego @ Baltimore
This is seriously the second-hardest game for me to pick this week. San Diego hasn’t had to do anything but run the ball to win, but Steve McNair hasn’t exactly been brilliant either. Both defenses match up really well against the other teams’ strengths. I’m going to attempt to take the easy way out and go with the team coming off the bye. San Diego’s extra week of rest may not exactly be crucial at this point in the season, but they do have one thing going for them: Baltimore only has two games of tape. Nobody, including the Ravens and maybe even the Chargers, knows what Philip Rivers can do. McNair’s been around for years, and Schottenheimer is great at schemes. Go with the bye! Pick: San Diego

San Francisco @ Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs used to be the Phoenix Suns of the NFL – lots of scoring, absolutely no defense. With Herm Edwards in charge and a new defense, that mentality is a thing of the past. No longer does the team have to rely entirely on the offense, which is a good thing when you have to start your backup quarterback. Damon Huard has been fairly solid, and he has the added benefit of handing the ball off to Larry Johnson. It’s tempting to go with the 49ers, a much improved team, as an upset, but key injuries and the fact that this game will be at Arrowhead makes the Chiefs too much of an obstacle. Pick: Chiefs

Detroit @ St. Louis
The Lions should no doubt be doing better than they have been so far this season. The key? I think it’s Kevin Jones. Detroit’s inability to run has put way too much pressure on Jon Kitna and the defense. St. Louis’ Front Four, on the other hand, has proven itself worthy of the all the hype. The Rams seem poised to take this one, but the offense must start converting in the red zone. Look for a rude homecoming welcome for Mike Martz this week. Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland @ Oakland
These are the games you hate to get stuck watching on Sunday: two pictures of football ineptitude facing off in what can only be a huge mess. This one will probably come down to who makes the least mistakes, and I can’t really think of a good reason to pick either team to win. I’m going to follow my instinct and go with the Browns, who played Baltimore close, over the Raiders, who haven’t played anybody close. Pick: Browns

Jacksonville @ Washington
The Jaguars have been on a rollercoaster. They handled the defending Super Bowl champions on Monday Night Football, only to get beaten by the division rival Colts again. On the positive side, it took a great special teams play for the Colts to pull it off, so the Jags should really feel good about themselves. Washington’s also feeling pretty good after putting away the Texans with Mark Brunell’s record-breaking performance. Both teams have something to prove and expectations to fill, so this should be a good one to watch. Washington should have a slight edge as the home team, but I think people still underrate Jacksonville. They are on the verge of being mentioned with the elite teams of the league, and it seems that they’ve figured out how to play those teams well. On the other hand, Washington is the kind of team that will beat the teams it is supposed to and maybe give the others a fight. I like Washington this year, but not against Jacksonville just yet. Pick: Jacksonville

New England @ Cincinnati
A good portion of Marvin Lewis’ week has been spent dealing with discipline problems, which is never good for a team. For an elite-status team, though, a DUI on a player that was suspended anyway shouldn’t have that much of an effect in a Week 4 game. Because of their success in recent years and even more recent vulnerability on both sides of the ball, New England seems like a team that other teams gear up to play for to make a statement. This makes their schedule that much harder, and I can’t see Cincinnati letting this one get away at home. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ Chicago
Here it is: The battle for NFC supremacy. Chicago started its season by beating each of its division foes, and Seattle, despite an ugly first week, proved that it still belongs up at the top of the conference. Both teams are riding a lot of momentum; Chicago from a 4th quarter turnover and subsequent improbable drive led by Rex Grossman, and Seattle from dropping 35 in the first half against the Giants. The defenses will undoubtedly play prominently, and there will be plenty of excitement from start to finish. I was inclined to pick Seattle until it came out that Shaun Alexander would not be playing. If Rex Grossman can remain confident and take care of his business, the Bears defense should be able to stop Seattle’s one-dimensional offense. Pick: Chicago

Green Bay @ Philadelphia
I have been surprised by the efficiency Philadelphia has played with on the offensive side of the ball thus far. They will face a weak and inexperienced Green Bay defense, and that will be the difference. Brett Favre looked great last week, and that’s good for him. I don’t expect him to be smiling and jumping up and down on a consistent basis, however. Philadelphia will play well under that Monday Night Lights. Pick: Philadelphia

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 3, I’m 3-0. Here’s the rundown:

Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10.
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee.

Division Champs:
NFC: Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Dallas
AFC: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, Miami

Wild Cards:
NFC: Tampa Bay, NY Giants
AFC: Pittsburgh, San Diego

Award Predictions:
Coach of the Year: Nick Saban
MVP: Marvin Harrison
Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
Offensive ROY: Mike Bell
Defensive ROY: Haloti Ngata
NFC Champ: Carolina
AFC Champ: Indianapolis
Super Bowl Champ: Indianapolis

Off-the-wall Predictions:
Most Improved Team: Arizona
Biggest Breakout Player: Philip Rivers
Biggest Bust: Vince Young
NFC Offensive POY: Shaun Alexander
NFC Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
AFC Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
AFC Defensive POY: Shawne Merriman
First Coach Fired: Andy Reid
First Quarterback Benched: Kurt Warner
First Kicker Fired: Jay Feely
Next Year’s #1 Pick: New Orleans
#1 Fantasy QB: Carson Palmer
#1 Fantasy RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
#1 Fantasy WR: Steve Smith
#1 Fantasy TE: Randy McMichael
#1 Fantasy K: John Kasay
#1 Fantasy DEF: Chicago
One Devastating Injury that will happen: Deion Branch will join his new team (or go back to the Patriots), have 1 or 2 big games, then get injured for the season.

I am prepared to defend any and all positions, so come with it.

Note: This post originally appeared on April 2, 2006.

Well, the Indians and White Sox are only in the fourth inning (on a rain delay), and in the three and half innings since the season started, every sportswriter’s second favorite “sleeper” pick has already lost their ace (Sabathia) to injury. So much for predictions. I have a few of my own, and I hope to add to them. First I’ll react to some of the things I’ve seen on espn.com and in The Mag, then make some more predictions. Ready? Let’s roll.

ESPN The Magazine released their top-to-bottom division predictions, and I believe that they’re all over the map. For starters, they predicted the Athletics to win the AL West and in the same paragraph, mentioned the idea that Billy Beane might be trying to move Barry Zito. The back half of their rotation is bad enough; they can’t afford to lose their ace. More reactions:

- Nobody at ESPN can write about the Rangers without mentioning the amount of home runs at Ameriquest. Nothing wrong with that, but they rarely ever mention that 65.6% of them were hit by the Rangers. They have power, and nobody gives them credit because there’s a stigma about the ballpark.

- Harold Reynolds, John Kruk, Peter Gammons, and Steve Phillips all picked the Cardinals to win the pennant on Baseball Tonight earlier. Tim Kurkjian picked them to win the division in The Mag. I think they just assume that they will win because they have in the past, but this offseason they lost Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Matt Morris, and Mark Grudzielanek and did virtually nothing to replace them. People seem to forget the 6.21 ERA that Ponson put up last year, not to mention the horrible demeanor that can wreck what is usually a professional clubhouse. I’m also not buying that Scott Rolen is back until I see it. The only thing that gives them a shot is Pujols.

- I can’t believe people think the Astros will succeed again. They added absolutely nobody to help their putrid offense, and Biggio isn’t getting any younger. At some point his aggressive play will catch up with him in the form of injury. It’s a shame, but it’s reality. The only way they break .500 is if Clemens comes back. It will be justice for the way they treated Bagwell.

- Everybody’s favorite sleeper is the Brewers. Again, this is based on a late run they made last season. But, Overbay’s not there anymore and Ben Sheets is injured. They have a bunch of rookies, no bullpen (except Turnbow, but somebody’s got to get him the ball) or bench, and only three legit starters. This is going to be a huge bust.

- Okay, call me a homer (I am), but nobody’s giving the Cubbies a chance because Wood and Prior are on the DL again. I saw an interview with Mark Prior recently, and he’s got the exact right attitude for someone who has to come back and prove himself all over again. And he’s not injury-prone - they’ve all been freak occurrences. As for Wood…I don’t know. Maybe he can be effective from the bullpen again. The bottom line is that nobody’s talking about the addition of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, and that Ronnie Cedeno is poised to break out. They’ve got a platoon of infielders that can be effective off the bench or traded. I see things looking up for them, not in fourth of fifth place in the Central like everybody’s saying.

- I’m tired of people picking the Braves “because I picked against them last year and got burned.” They have a total of two pitchers - bullpen included. You might be able to convince me of Chris Reitsma, but not yet. I love Francoeur and all those guys, but it’s not happening. The Mets have done too much.

Peter Gammons has his picks for individual awards out, and I can’t say I’m impressed. Here’s what he picked:

AL MVP: Bobby Crosby
This has to be an April Fool’s joke. I know that the media loves him and he plays hard, but he’s not an MVP. Steve Phillips points to the A’s record last year with and without him while he was injured, but being a good clubhouse presence doesn’t win you the MVP. Last year he played 84 games and had 9 HRs and 38 RBIs. If you were generous in your calculations, you would discover that he was on pace for 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. A look at his ‘04 stats confirm that this is not atypical (22 & 64). These aren’t even Moneyball numbers. Even Pujols had to wait until his fifth year in the league to win, (Crosby’s in his fourth) and Bobby is not even in Pujols’ league. Peter should have gone with Teixeira or A-Rod. He should also remove Grady Sizemore from his list.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
You can’t argue with this. What you can dispute is Chipper Jones on the runner-up list with Derrek Lee conspicuously absent. Chipper hit his prime…maybe 10 years ago? Not happening.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Unfortunately for Beckett, the Red Sox won’t be scoring as many runs this year. I just don’t see anybody who goes on the DL at least once every year for a blister contending. Santana or Halladay would have been better picks. You can’t really expect Gammons to write a column without predicting something outrageous for the Red Sox, though.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Nice sleeper pick.

Okay, hopefully the rain delay will end soon. My picks for individual awards:
MVP: Mark Teixeira (AL), Albert Pujols (NL)
Cy Young: Bartolo Colon (AL), Carlos Zambrano (NL)
Reliever of the Year: BJ Ryan (AL), Chad Cordero (NL)
Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johjima (AL), Matt Murton (NL)
Rookie Pitcher of the Year: I just looked over a list of eligible players and recognized maybe three names. No prediction. Here’s hoping for Edison Volquez and Angel Guzman.
Comeback Player of the Year (Position Player): Magglio Ordonez (AL), Barry Bonds (NL)
Comeback Player of the Year (Pitcher): Zack Greinke (AL), Mark Prior (NL)

Playoff Picks Revisted:
Here are my playoff teams that I picked a couple of months ago:

Mets
Cubs
Dodgers
Cardinals (WC)

Yankees
Indians
Rangers
Athletics (WC)

I reserve the right to change my picks, because it’s my blog and I was able to catch a few spring training games on TV. I’m going to leave the NL alone, but my AL picks get an overhaul. I have become increasingly less convinced about the Indians and more convinced about the Blue Jays. I’ve got the Blue Jays in the East, the White Sox in the Central (I was skeptical about Jim Thome, but it looks like it really was Philly that was the problem), and the West stays the same.

Ten Bold Predictions for 2006:
I was 1/2 for 10 last year (still an outside shot that Bonds retires at 715. Griffey almost made the season). They’re supposed to be bold, so no backing down.

1. David Wright will finish in the top 5 in MVP balloting. Oh yeah, bold…okay, top 3.
2. Roger Clemens will wait until the end of May to make his decision, making everybody think Astros…but he ends up with the Rangers.
3. Manny Ramirez will get injured messing around in the outfield, forcing David Ortiz to play in the field, effectively ending MVP conversations about him.
4. Nomar Garciaparra will end up playing second base for the Yankees.
5. Carl Crawford will demand a trade and end up in…Kansas City. The Royals will subsequently pass the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central.
6. Dontrelle Willis will lead the NL in ERA but struggle to stay above .500. 12 wins for D-Train.
7. Tony LaRussa will retire after this season.
8. Bobby Jenks gets roughed up sometime early in the season, loses the closer role, and slips into anonymity as his weight approaches 350 pounds.
9. League leaders in home runs: Paul Konerko and Cliff Floyd.
10. This year’s big name to get nailed for steroids: Milton Bradley.

Rain delay’s still not over, so…there’s still a chance that prediction number 8 comes true tonight. Happy baseball!

Note: This post appeared as part of a larger post on February 10, 2006.

Sportscenter opened with the Mavericks last night, not only because Mark Cuban claimed ownership of Phil Jackson, but because they’re on a 13-game winning streak and playing defense. Anybody that knows anything about the Mavericks knows that defense has always been their Achille’s Heel, so it’s fun to see that the Little General has them whipped into shape. Even Dirk is playing defense! The franchise record for wins in a row is 14, when they started the season that way a couple of years ago. They go for the tie tonight against Denver, and a cupcake schedule for the week or so after that should allow the Mavs to keep on rolling. I can’t wait to see how they stack up against the Spurs on March 2. They’ve split the season series so far, and the way things are going, one game might make the difference between the 1 and 2 seed. Even more than that, I’m looking forward to March 28’s matchup with the Pistons. The first time they met at the beginning of the season, Dallas won 119-82. They also won both preseason matchups. Detroit has played out of their mind up until last week, but I believe they’re just a little overrated. We’ll see soon enough; for now I’m enjoying the streak and some awesome team defense.

The Stars won last night as well. Kapanen had a hat trick, and they scored three power play goals, which has been their Achille’s Heel recently. Hedberg did a great job as the backup, and a team that looked like a 4 or 5 seed at the beginning of the season might actually contend for the President’s Trophy. I’m really worried that the Olympics are going to hurt their momentum, but they have enough veteran leadership to get through it.

Finally, pitchers and catchers report soon (although that’s going to be kind of weird with the World Baseball Classic coming up next month). There’s no precedent for how the WBC will affect players (with unforeseen injuries, fatigue in the later months of the season, etc.), so I’m going to make my preseason predictions with complete disregard for all of that, since I have no idea what to make of it all. Here’s how I think each division will go down:

NL East
The New York Mets have done a lot to help themselves this offseason, so it’s tempting to give in and predict them to win. There’s always a danger in betting against history, though, as the Atlanta Braves have won 15 straight titles. They did trade away some of their prospects, and they have no closer at this moment. I think the Mets actually benefit from the loss of Piazza, as they can actually throw runners out now. It’s also tempting to put the Marlins in last based on their fire sale, but I think getting rid of Thome makes the Phillies implode.

NY Mets
Washington
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia

NL Central
My Cubbies have improved this offseason, getting some help in the bullpen and in the outfield. Juan Pierre gives them a leadoff hitter, and an overflowing infield allows them to make a deadline deal to make a title push. The Astros probably won’t have Roger Clemens, and they haven’t done anything to improve their poor hitting (except force Jeff Bagwell out?). The Cardinals will have a dropoff also, although the continued emergence of Albert Pujols will make things interesting. Milwaukee is in position to be good in a couple of years, but not yet.

Chicago Cubs
St. Louis - Wild Card
Milwaukee
Cincinnatti
Houston
Pittsburgh

NL West
The league’s worst division probably won’t be much better, although the Dodgers are trying to separate themselves from the pack. San Diego won’t get anywhere without Adam Eaton (and Chris Young’s not ready yet), and one or more of the San Francisco Giants might die of old age on the field. The Dodgers will win a close one, but with the league’s 7th or 8th best record.

Los Angeles
San Francisco
San Diego
Arizona
Colorado

AL East
Hooray! My least favorite division. There are two teams that ruin the financial balance of baseball with their overspending (Boston and NY Yankees), one that’s trying to do the same thing (Toronto), one with the whiniest owner in baseball (Baltimore), and the worst team in the league (Tampa Bay). Unlike previous years, the Wild Card will not come out of this division, simply because the rest of the AL has gotten stronger and the top three in the East will beat up on each other. I don’t think there will be much of a change top to bottom here from last year, but the Blue Jays will make it closer than in years past.

New York Yankees
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

AL Central
Lots of people are picking the White Sox to repeat, but I’m not sure they know how to play under pressure. The last Chicago team to be a favorite imploded. Here’s a simple rule I like to live by: Never expect a team to overachieve two years in a row, especially not in baseball, where the schedule is 162 games long. Minnesota has been due for a stellar year for awhile now, but they won’t be as good as the other elite teams in the league because they lack depth. Cleveland will have a breakout year if they can pull off a major deadline deal. I’m banking on that.

Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
Kansas City

AL West
This will be interesting, since the A’s and Rangers have both improved during the offseason. Most people are picking Oakland to win, but I’m going to stick by my prediction that they won’t win the division again as long as Billy Beane is the GM. The Rangers actually have a rotation this year, and they have the extra players to make the all-important deadline trade. Even if they don’t deal, they have the depth to overcome injury and an extended season because of the WBC (Okay, just one!). Phil Rogers seems to think that Michael Young is ready to break out, and if he does, the Rangers have a shot to hit 100. The Angels will fall off this year, as they have lost 2/5 of their rotation. Washburn and Byrd were essential parts of Anaheim’s run last year, and they won’t be able to find help. Seattle will improve, but not that much.

Texas
Oakland - Wild Card
Seattle
Anaheim