Just for Sport

Power Rankings

Record and last week’s rank are in parentheses.

1. Dallas (3-0, 1) - This isn’t a mystery.  There are few elite teams this year, and Dallas is one of them.
2. Philadelphia (2-1, 4) - They can be competitive in any kind of game against any team.
3. Tennessee (3-0, - Are they for real?  As long as Young stays on the sideline, apparently.
4. Denver (3-0, 5) - Jay Cutler continues to impress.
5. New York Giants (3-0, 6) - Good teams survive scares from less talented teams.  The Giants are a good team.
6. Buffalo (3-0, 10) - Ditto for the Bills.  And look who they get to play this week.  A hint: They’re at #32 on this list.
7. Pittsburgh (2-1, 3) - Plenty of injuries to go around, but they are deep enough - and well-coached enough - to overcome it.
8. New England (2-1, 2) - They got killed.  They have a bye week this week and play San Francisco next.  Think it’ll happen twice in a row?
9. Green Bay (2-1, 7) - There’s no shame in losing to the best team in the league, especially when you play in the NFC North.
10. Baltimore (2-0, 16) - Big test this week against the Steelers.  Winner gets control of the division.
11. San Diego (1-2, 12) - The absence of Shawn Merriman still worries me.
12. Washington (2-1, 14) - Jason Campbell is beginning to look like a legitimate quarterback.
13. San Francisco (2-1, 19) - Who saw this coming?
14. Tampa Bay (2-1, 17) - They were saved by a bad penalty.  Still, look at what division they play in. 
15. Arizona (2-1, 9) - Ken Whisenhunt is the man.
16. Atlanta (2-1, 23) - Look, it’s not hard.  Give Michael Turner the ball and keep your defense off the field.
17. Minnesota (1-2, 21) - Adrian Peterson was limited and they actually won.  I have a bad feeling about my fantasy team now.
18. Jacksonville (1-2, 24) - They’re mediocre.  What else can you say?
19. Chicago (1-2, 15) - I know I’m beating a dead horse, but…they’re horribly inconsistent.
20. Indianapolis (1-2, 11) - Man, their run defense looks horrible. 
21. Miami (1-2, 28) - They know they won’t be able to get away with the Single Wing again next week, right?  What’s that, they’re playing the Merriman-less Chargers?  Yeah, they’ve got a shot.
22. Carolina (2-1, 13) - Look, I know they have a good record, but I just don’t believe.
23. Seattle (1-2, 29) - Signs of life?  No, just playing against the Rams.  Show me something against a team that plays in the NFL.
24. Oakland (1-2, 28) - They move up because other teams are bad, not because they’re good.
25. New Orleans (1-2, 20) - So I guess the Saints reaching the NFC Championship a couple of years ago really was an anomaly.
26. New York Jets (1-2, 26) - Wait, so Brett Favre throws a lot of interceptions?
27. Houston (0-2, 22) - Turns out it wasn’t David Carr’s fault after all.  Oops.
28. Detroit (0-3, 25) - But hey, Matt Millen is gone!
29. Cleveland (0-3, 18) - The Browns (26) have somehow scored less points than the Rams (29).
30. Cincinnati (0-3, 30) - On further review, I was way too optimistic about this team’s chances.
31. Kansas City (0-3, 32) - Name one positive thing about their season so far.  Yeah, I can’t do it either.
32. St. Louis (0-3, 31) - They already have a point spread of -87.

Predictions

Picks are winners only - no spread.  Home teams are in all caps.

Last Week: 11-5(.688),  Season: 26-21 (.553)

Atlanta over CAROLINA - Michael Turner and the Falcons will make a statement this week by beating Carolina in their house with a dominant running game.

CINCINNATI over Cleveland - Both teams are terrible, but they play in Cincinnati, so…

JACKSONVILLE over Houston - A team that pressures the quarterback well against a team that can’t protect theirs.  Advantage: Jaguars.

Denver over KANSAS CITY - This division matchup is usually pretty competitive, and I don’t think the Chiefs are going to roll over, but they still don’t have the personnel to pull this off.

San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS - I would likely pick the Saints if Colston and Shockey were healthy.  But they’re not, so I won’t.

Arizona over NEW YORK JETS - This week features two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (Brett Favre & Kurt Warner) facing off against each other.  Don’t be fooled: This game will be more about who has the better weapons.  Kurt Warner wins.

TAMPA BAY over Green Bay - Call me crazy, but I think Aaron Rodgers will struggle this week against Gruden’s defense.

TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are pretty similar - both teams like to run and both have great defenses. Tennessee is slightly more balanced, however.  Minnesota wants to throw, but doesn’t have quite the weapons that the Titans do.

San Diego over OAKLAND - On the surface, this game looks like a sure blowout, but let’s not forget that LDT is still not 100% and the Chargers had a short week.  Good thing for them they’re playing the Raiders.

Buffalo over ST LOUIS - The Bills are on the way up and the Rams are on the way down.  Easy money.

DALLAS over Washington - The Redskins need to run the ball if they’re going to have a chance.  Too bad the Cowboys have an excellent run defense.

Philadelphia over CHICAGO - The Eagles put pressure on the quarterback better than anybody.  Poor Kyle Orton.

PITTSBURGH over Baltimore - This game will be more competitive than you think, but I like the Steelers at home on Monday night.

From now on, power rankings will appear on Tuesday and predictions on Thursday, when possible.  Team Record and Last Week’s Ranking appear in parentheses.

1. Dallas (2-0, 3) - Beat a very good Philadelphia team.  The offense looks unstoppable, as long as they don’t stop themselves.
2. New England (2-0, 6) - No Brady?  Who cares?  He was just a game manager anyway.
3. Pittsburgh (2-0, 1) - They barely hung on against a team they should have trashed.  Oh, and there was the weather and something about a bum shoulder?  If Roethlisberger heals up, they stay close to the top all season.  If not…look at the division they play in.  They’ll still be here.
4. Philadelphia (1-1, 2) - Lost a heartbreaker to a division rival.  They’re still one of the teams to beat.
5. Denver (2-0, 4) - So the refs gave them the game.  Did you see Brandon Marshall?
6. New York Giants (2-0, 9) - They seem to have a never-ending supply of defensive linemen.
7. Green Bay (2-0, 11) - People are starting to believe.  So am I.
8. Tennessee (2-0, 14) - That defense is awesome.  Imagine if they still had Pacman Adam Jones.
9. Arizona (2-0, 10) - They haven’t been tested yet.  That’s not their fault, but let’s see where they stand in a few weeks.
10. Buffalo (2-0, 8.) - Looking good, so far.  Haven’t played anybody, so far.
11. Indianapolis (1-1, 20) - In the second half on Sunday they showed signs of life for the first time since they won the Super Bowl.  Sure, their offensive line has been torn to shreds and their bread-and-butter play has been shelved for now, but look at the schedule: Jacksonville comes to town next week followed by a much-needed bye.
12. San Diego (0-2, 18) - By far the best 0-2 team.  They’ve been robbed twice, but they still go in the right column in the standings.
13. Carolina (2-0, 15) - And they get Steve Smith back next week.
14. Washington (1-1, 25) - The 4th best team in the best division in the NFL.  Still not that bad.
15. Chicago (1-1, 5) - The good Bears and the bad Bears showed up on Sunday.  So which one will show up this week?
16. Baltimore (1-0, 16) - They stay in the same spot, as do the Texans.
17. Tampa Bay (1-1, 27) - Playing Cincinnati makes any team look good.
18. Cleveland (0-2, 26) - If they want to repeat last year’s success, they’ll need to start winning this week.
19. San Francisco (1-1, 23) - They showed some guts this week.
20. New Orleans (1-1, 12) - New Orleans needs to find someone who can run up the middle.
21. Minnesota (0-2, 17) - Learn how to finish drives and teams won’t come back on you.
22. Houston (0-1, 22) - At least they didn’t have to play in Milwaukee.
23. Atlanta (1-1, 7) - Quick, name more than 3 players on their defense.
24. Jacksonville (0-2, 19) - This was supposed to be their year?
25. Detroit (0-2, 21) - Calvin Johnson is a beast.  He’s on a bad team.
26. New York Jets (1-1, 13) - Mangini ran up the middle three straight times on the goal line?  He is Mangenius no more.
27. Miami (0-2, 24) - They’re not any better than last year.
28. Oakland (1-1, 31) - Poor Darren McFadden is stuck.
29. Seattle (0-2, 29) - J.T. O’Sullivan passed for 321 yards on this defense.
30. Cincinnati (0-2, 28) - Bad news: You have to play another elite defense this week.
31. St. Louis (0-2, 32) - Embarassing, but at least it was against a good team this time. 
32. Kansas City (0-2, 30) - When you lose to the #31 team by 15 points, you automatically get last place.

For one week only, the power rankings are based on record; that is to say that the Top 16 are all 1-0.

1. Pittsburgh - Looks great on both sides of the ball.  Roethlisberger is growing into a truly great quarterback.
2. Philadelphia - They looked dominant last week.  It’s hard to conceive a team that wouldn’t look dominant against the Rams.
3. Dallas - The offense was incredibly efficient - then again, since when has Cleveland had a defense?
4. Denver - Imagine how much better they’ll be with Brandon Marshall.
5. Chicago - The Bears of ‘06 are back - with a better running back.
6. New England - Matt Cassel is the new Tom Brady - overratedness to follow?
7. Atlanta - Not every week will be this easy for Matt Ryan.
8. Buffalo - Can Trent Edwards keep it up?
9. New York Giants - They are still the champs, just without the D-Line that won it for them.
10. Arizona - Better than you think.
11. Green Bay - Rodgers was moderately impressive against a good team.
12. New Orleans - Reggie Bush is finally starting to live up to a portion of his billing.  Can he keep it up?
13. New York Jets - They got lucky against the Dolphins and now we’re supposed to believe?
14. Tennessee - Did somebody say, "QB issues?"
15. Carolina - Got lucky on the final play.  They won’t be this high on the rankings next week.
16. Baltimore - There’s room for Joe Flacco to grow.
17. Minnesota - I still believe in the Vikes, but Tarvaris needs to step up.
18. San Diego - They can overcome the Merriman injury, but only if the offense is much better.
19. Jacksonville - Another team hurting from injuries.
20. Indianapolis - And another.
21. Detroit - They still need a defense.
22. Houston - Offensive line issues - still.
23. San Francisco - The Mike Martz era gets off to a rocky start…it’s the personnel, stupid.
24. Miami - They look better with Chad Pennington, but they’re not there yet.
25. Washington - Coach Zorn didn’t even have a 2-minute drill in place last week.  Um, this is the NFL?
26. Cleveland - They need to be more competitive against the league’s top teams if they’re going to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke.
27. Tampa Bay - This week’s benching of Jeff Garcia proves that Jon Gruden is evil.
28. Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is off to a terrible start.
29. Seattle - Lost to Buffalo by 24 points.  Need I say more?
30. Kansas City - Am I the only one that remembers how bad Brodie Croyle was at Alabama?
31. Oakland - I feel bad for Lane Kiffin.  Then again, who in their right mind takes this job?
32. St. Louis - Just. Bad.  The worst part is, they have the talent to be much better.

Predictions: CIN over TEN, GB over DET, NO over WAS, KC over OAK, CHI over CAR, NYG over STL, JAX over BUF, MIN over IND, SF over SEA, ATL over TB, ARI over MIA, SD over DEN, NE over NYJ, ARI over MIA, PIT over CLE, PHI over DAL

I had an NFL preview written here, but I lost it.  So frustrating.  I’m not rewriting it.  Instead, have a shortened version.  Perhaps I’ll elaborate a little more later on, but not tonight.

Week 1 Predictions: NYG over WAS, CIN over BAL, JAX over TEN, NYJ over MIA, NE over KC, NO over TB, PHI over STL, PIT over HOU, DET over ATL, SEA over BUF, ARI over SF, DAL over CLE, SD over CAR, IND over CHI, MIN over GB, DEN over OAK

Predicted Standings

The first time I did this, I included win-loss records and even had them all added up so that there was an even number of wins and losses.  Not this time.  Wild card teams get a nice little *.

AFC East

1. New England
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore

AFC South

1. Indianapolis
2. Jacksonville*
3. Houston
4. Tennessee

AFC West

1. San Diego
2. Denver*
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City

NFC East

1. Dallas
2. Philadelphia*
3. New York Giants
4. Washington

NFC North

1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay*
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

NFC South

1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta

NFC West

1. Arizona
2. Seattle
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis

Wild Card: IND over DEN, JAX over PIT, PHI over ARI, GB over NO

Divisional Round: NE over JAX, IND over SD, MIN over PHI, DAL over GB

Championships: NE over IND, DAL over MIN

Super Bowl: DAL over NE

I always hoped that by 2008, the Cubs would have won the World Series.  Alas, they haven’t, and now I have to endure insufferable Cardinals fans and Cubs haters of all stripes (hey Brewers fans, bandwagon much?) chanting "100 years" and coming up with other creative, original, and relevant things to say about the situation all year long.  So in the year 2008 will I pick the Cubbies to win it all?  No way.  I may not subscribe to all the curses and jinxes, but I am still a Cubs fan, and I know better than that.  Not this year.

AL East

On some level, the AL East is the easiest division to pick year in and year out.  You can pencil in either the Yankees or the Red Sox as the division winner and walk away feeling okay about it.  I’m not sure that it’s that simple anymore.  In any other division, I like the Rays to challenge for the title.  I would love it if they did so this year, but I don’t think they have the pitching staff for it yet.  They will play spoiler, and that’s why I’m picking New York: The Red Sox play the Rays more down the stretch.  I like the Blue Jays as well, but it’s hard for me to see them breaking through.  This division boasts 4 good teams, but I think the Yanks and Sox will stay on top for at least one more year.

New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

AL Central

This division could easily become a two horse race early.  In my opinion, it is the weakest division in baseball.  I will drink the Kool-Aid on Detroit mainly because of the division.  In fact, I believe they will capture the highest record in the American League.  While all of the East teams beat up on each other, the Tigers get to play Chicago, Minnesota, and Kansas City over and over.  Detroit will clinch early and be well rested for the playoffs. 

Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City 

AL West

The major storylines in the AL West will be the battle for the division title between the Angels and the Mariners and the battle to stay out of the cellar between the A’s and the Rangers.  You could pick any combination of four teams in the entire league and the gap between the top two teams and the bottom two teams would not be as big as it is here.  The Angels are among the elite teams and have only gotten better with their free agent acquisitions.  The only suspect area is their starting pitching, especially with John Lackey injured.  The Mariners are young and eager.  This will be an exciting race, and I think the Angels win because of their experience.  The Mariners capture the Wild Card, beating out Boston and Cleveland with their incredibly weak September schedule. 

Los Angeles at Anaheim (Can we just go back to calling them the California Angels?)
Seattle - Wild Card
Texas
Oakland 

NL East

Last year, Jimmy Rollins predicted a division title for the Phillies, and they delivered.  It took an amazing stretch run coupled with a historic Mets collapse, but it happened.  There was one major difference between what happened last year and what will happen this year: the Mets didn’t have Johan Santana last year.  I like the Mets to win easily this year.  I also like the Braves to surprise some people and beat out the Phillies for second place.  As for the other teams, I don’t see much movement from the cellar.

New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington 

NL Central

The six-team division is really only a four-team race.  A couple of years ago, I thought the Pirates would be an up-and-comer, but they haven’t done anything to improve themselves.  I also don’t believe in the Cardinals this year.  Last year, they looked out of it, and made a late push, and I don’t like to pick against Tony LaRussa, but look at their roster.  Their outfield is terrible, they have no middle infield, and the rotation is sub-par.  They just don’t have the personnel to compete.  Of the four other teams, I think the Cubs and the Reds look the strongest.  The Cubs’ lineup is formidable and they are solid in the rotation and in the bullpen.  The Reds look good as well, but you must consider the Dusty Baker factor, especially considering the state of their bullpen (save for Cordero).  The other two teams have glaring weaknesses.  The Astros have no rotation after Roy Oswalt, although I believe they will surprise a lot of people and beat some good teams.  The Brewers’ bullpen is the definition of suspect, and they must rely on Ben Sheets to be healthy, which is no small task.  This isn’t relevant, but they also have loudmouth fans that overrate their young players.

Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh 

NL West

Like the AL East, the NL West boasts four very strong teams - in this case, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Diego.  I think a lot of people believe that Colorado’s run last year was a fluke, but I’m not one of them.  I think they are legit, and they will challenge for the division.  I would feel good about choosing any of these four to win the division or the Wild Card, but I’m choosing Arizona and Colorado, in that order, for their mix of veteran leadership and youthful enthusiasm.

Arizona
Colorado - Wild Card
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco 

Playoffs 

American League Divisional Series

Detroit over Seattle (Wild Card) in 4 games

Seattle’s youthfulness works against them, especially against such a seasoned team. 

New York over California in 5 games 

You can point to Anaheim’s win over New York in 2002 as a turning point in the Yankee dynasty, and since then, the Angels have had a mental edge over the Yankees.  However, I believe in Joe Girardi, and I think he’s going to turn the Yankees around.

National League Divisional Series

New York over Colorado (Wild Card) in 3 games

The Mets, with Santana, have a significant advantage in a short series.  If Pedro Martinez can regain his form or John Maine can live up to expectations, they will be almost unbeatable.

Arizona over Chicago in 5 games

A rematch of last year’s series will end up the same way.  Arizona has all kinds of weapons that most casual fans don’t even know about: Connor Jackson and Chris Young are just two of them.

ALCS

Detroit over New York in 6 games

This sets up all kinds of interesting storylines: Gary Sheffield versus the Yankees, Joe Girardi versus Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and the rematch of two teams who brawled during the regular season.  That would probably be the case no matter who the Yankees end up playing, I guess, but still interesting nonetheless.  These two teams are represented by a ton of playoff experience, and I think it will be hard-fought.  In the end, I think the pitching for the Tigers wins out.

NLCS

Arizona over New York in 7 games

The media will be abuzz about a Subway Series, but neither New York team will make it there.  If you haven’t figured it out by now, I really like Arizona this year.  I think the addition of Dan Haren puts them over the top, but they need a lot of things to go right.  Their young players must perform up to expectations, Randy Johnson must have a resurgence, and above all, they must find a closer they can rely on.

World Series

Arizona over Detroit in 6 games

Ok, so you can see why I’d be tempted to take the Cubs to go to the Series, right?  Arizona has to have all these things happen just right, New York has a history of collapsing and they have one solid pitcher (granted, he’s more than solid), and everybody else has their flaws, too.  But, um, I’m not picking them.  Not this year.  Arizona will win the World Series, NOT the Cubs.  It’s in writing.  I am NOT jinxing the Cubs this year, the 100 year anniversary of their last championship.  It’s Arizona all the way.

Convincing enough?  I sure hope so… 

Here it is: the 2007 NFL preview, division by division.

AFC East

1. New York Jets (12-4) 

I know I will be labeled a Pats hater, but there’s no denying that Bill Belichick’s "genius" was exposed last year.  Mangini has their number, and a close division almost always comes down to head-to-head matchups.

2. New England (11-5)

Randy Moss was supposed to make a huge difference in Oakland, too. 

3. Miami (8-8)

I’m not a believer in Trent Green, but I am a believer in their defense. 

4. Buffalo (4-12)

The loss of Willis McGahee will make a bigger impact than thought. 

AFC North

1. Baltimore (12-4)

I really like Baltimore this year…except that they have a walking injury at quarterback.   

2. Cincinnati (10-6)

Remember when Carson Palmer and the Bengals were going to go deep in the playoffs and then Palmer got his knee blown out?  Yeah, me too. 

3. Pittsburgh (8-8)

Coaching change doesn’t make much of a difference.  Roethlisberger is a game manager and not much more, and the sooner the Steelers figure this out, the better. 

4. Cleveland (3-13)

A bad team that just hasn’t done anything to make itself better.  Jamal Lewis is supposed to be their big improvement?  No. 

AFC South

1. Indianapolis (12-4)

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing about the Colts.  Super Bowl Letdown, losses on defense, the list goes on.  Listen - they’ll be fine.  As someone who has watched the Colts carefully for the last several years, I will tell you that the losses at cornerback were actually a good thing, and I think Thursday’s game against the Saints proved that.  Who did Peyton pick on all game long?  Jason David and Nick Harper. 

2. Jacksonville (10-6)

I was ready to say that this would be the year Jacksonville would compete for the division title…and then they cut Byron Leftwich.  Look, David Garrard was a nice change of pace, but he’s not going to lead you to the promised land. 

3. Tennessee (7-9)

I’m really high on Vince Young, but that defense minus Pacman Jones is not really a defense. 

4. Houston (5-11) 

I’ve watched lots of Texans games since they came into the league because of where I live, and let me tell you something: it was a mistake to get rid of David Carr.  On many occasions, he was the only player who showed up to the game.  I hope Matt Schaub enjoys the view from his backside. 

AFC West

1. San Diego (13-3)

Coaching change: does it really matter with that kind of talent? 

2. Denver (11-5)

Their defense is AMAZING.  If Jay Cutler can live up to his potential, this will be a good football team. 

3. Kansas City (7-9)

7-9 may be a little optimistic, especially when Brodie Croyle is competing for the quarterback spot.  Doesn’t anybody remember how bad he sucked at Alabama?  That team won games with a score of 6-3 because their defense was so good.  Kansas City’s defense?  Not that good. 

4. Oakland (3-13) 

I just don’t see it turning around. 

NFC East

1. Dallas (12-4)

This was the toughest division to pick for me because Dallas and Philly are so close.  Whoever wins the head-to-heads will take it, and I like Dallas when matched up against the Eagles. 

2. Philadelphia (11-5)

But watch out if McNabb can stay healthy all year… 

3. New York Giants (6-10)

This team should scrap together a few wins, but it won’t be because of Eli Manning. 

4. Washington (3-13)

Worst defense in the league = 3-13.  Or worse. 

NFC North

1. Chicago (12-4)

Chicago still plays in the worst division in the NFL. 

2. Green Bay (8-8)

I think they will overachieve this year.  Why?  Brett Favre will announce his retirement in Week 4.

3. Detroit (6-10)

They should improve, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, people. 

4. Minnesota (4-12) 

When you’re depending on Tarvaris Jackson, you’ve got problems that run deep.  Maybe it’s time to ask about who is making the personnel decisions up there. 

NFC South

1. New Orleans (13-3)

Their defense is a liability, but look at their schedule.  Drew Brees always starts slow and finishes strong. 

2. Atlanta (8-8)

A lot of people think their season is lost, but does nobody remember about all of the games Mike Vick LOST for them in the past few years? 

3. Carolina (5-11)

Their win-loss record goes up if they get that bum Delhomme out and put David Carr in. 

4. Tampa Bay (3-13)

One thing’s for certain in Tampa Bay: Jon Gruden will get 2 hours of sleep a night, yell at people on national television, and still lose a lot of games. 

NFC West

1. Arizona (10-6)

This is my sleeper pick this year.  Matt Leinart has had time to gel with Boldin and Fitzgerald.  They have a new coach, a new defense, a new offensive line (and O-line coach to go with it), and a decent schedule. 

2. St. Louis (8-8)

Scott Linehan is a good coach, but you how does that help you tackle? 

3. Seattle (7-9)

Look, I could be really wrong about this, but Seattle is severely overrated this year.  This might be the oldest team in the NFL.  Could someone check on that?

4. San Francisco (6-10) 

I need to see more from Alex Smith before I give San Fran any credit. 

 

Playoffs:

Wildcard

Patriots over Ravens, Jets over Broncos 

Bears over Rams, Eagles over Cardinals 

Divisional Round

Chargers over Patriots, Colts over Jets

Cowboys over Bears, Eagles over Saints 

Championship

Colts over Chargers 

Cowboys over Eagles

Super Bowl

Colts 31, Cowboys 22 

First, here’s how the first round shaped up for me:
1 – 26 wins, 6 losses. My previous first round best was 23-9.
2 – I had a perfect East bracket, and missed only 1 in the South.
3 – Most importantly, all 16 of my Sweet 16 teams are still in it.

Thoughts moving forward:
1 – I wish I would have drunk the Kool-Aid on Winthrop. I saw a couple of games early on in the season where I was impressed with Notre Dame’s big men, but it just didn’t translate. It’s kind of hard to play the whole second half in foul trouble, but the Eagles played a good game as well.
2 – I mentioned that all of my second round picks are still in, and I’m not flip-flopping on any of them. I don’t think any of the changed match-ups are very significant. I’m a little worried about Wisconsin against UNLV, but I think their first half dud against TAMUCC might have woken them up.
3 – I should have seen the Duke collapse coming. I picked them because A) It seemed like everybody was picking them to lose, and I didn’t want to get caught up in the hype, B) I overestimated Paulus, and C) I’m not that high on Virginia Commonwealth. Good win for them, but get ready for a letdown against Pitt.

My Second Round Upsets:
5 Virginia Tech over 4 Southern Illinois
9 Michigan State over 1 North Carolina
6 Vanderbilt over 3 Washington State
5 Tennessee over 4 Virginia
7 Nevada over 2 Memphis

Well, the tournament starts in about an hour, so it’s about time to reveal picks. I played it pretty safe this year; in years’ past I’ve been horrible at predicting upsets. Speaking of upsets, here are the first rounders that I picked:

9 Purdue over 8 Arizona
12 Old Dominion over 5 Butler
10 Georgia Tech over 7 UNLV
9 Villanova over 8 Kentucky
9 Michigan State over 8 Marquette

I actually picked no upsets in the South. This doesn’t usually happen, but it’s not like I’ve ever gotten an entire quarter of the bracket completely right anyway. Elite Eight:

Florida
Wisconsin
Kansas
UCLA
Texas
Georgetown
Ohio State
Texas A&M

I have Florida beating UCLA, and Georgetown beating Texas A&M. Florida repeats with a 79-73 win over the Hoyas.

I also made another bracket where I picked the most ridiculous scenarios I could think of, because heaven knows something is going to happen that nobody thought of. The final four from that bracket consists of Winthrop, Gonzaga, George Washington, and Long Beach State. If it looks like my bracket is going to be busted early, I’ll be rooting for these guys.

Well, we’re down to the final four. Three of the teams left are teams I’ve been cheering for this year, and the other one is one I can’t stand. One of these teams will be the Super Bowl champion, and I think I will vomit if it is the Patriots. This is a tough week for picking winners, as most Championship weeks are. There’s so much build-up this time around, especially in the AFC. It will be fun to find out if both games can live up to their billing. Let’s start in the NFC.

Bears-Saints
I’ve been rooting for both teams this year, for very different reasons. ACU’s own Danieal Manning has been doing a great job in his rookie season starting at Free Safety for the Bears. One article I read at the beginning of the season (I’d link to it, but the article is no longer free) called him “a promising young player that covers like a cornerback and hits like a linebacker.” What an endorsement. I’ve also been cheering for the Saints because of the Katrina factor. When I was in the New Orleans area this summer, the fact that the team was coming back at all was a source of excitement. Nobody expected they’d do this well. Ultimately, I’d like the Saints to win because I think America needs to continue to hear stories from Hurricane Katrina. I think they will get it done. In a shootout, which is a possibility, the Bears won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. I’m not sure how high each team will go, but the Saints win by two field goals. Look for Drew Brees to frustrate Brian Urlacher.

Colts-Patriots
I’m scared about this weekend, for three reasons: (1) If the Colts can’t pull it off now, can they ever? (2) Earlier in the postseason, the Colts performed well partly because they felt they were underdogs. Now it might be tempting for them to come out and think that they deserve it. (3) Recent history aside, I’m still worried about the run defense. Having said that, I’m still confident. Even if Rodney Harrison is able to play, the Patriots’ secondary is still very beatable. I’m feeling a rant coming. If you don’t want to read it, skip the next paragraph.

It’s always driven me nuts that Tom Brady gets all the credit for the success of the Patriots. Weren’t they the team that chose to be introduced all together at the Super Bowl? Yet, when Adam Vinatieri or the Patriots defense win a game for the Patriots (or the ref calls a “tuck rule” or John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds or Donovan McNabb throws up on the final drive), Brady gets praised. “His” playoff record is 12-1. After last week’s game, which was horrible, Scott Van Pelt was moved to say, “In the end, Tom Brady was just better.” The Chargers missed a field goal! Sean Salisbury, who has always slurped up to Brady said, “This game shows why Tom Brady is the most clutch quarterback in playoff history.” Are you kidding me? Read what I wrote last week, and tell me if I was right.

In any case, I’m taking the Colts. It will be close for a half, but the Colts O will come out and put it away sometime in the early fourth quarter, making the RCA Dome a rockin’ place. All of this will set up…

Super Bowl XLI: Colts-Saints
Inevitably, this game would come to be known as “The Archie Manning Bowl.” So much publicity would surround the Manning family even I would get tired of it. Media circus aside, this would be a great game. Both teams, if they won this week, would come in with all kinds of momentum. Both offenses would have field days. Most importantly, both teams would really, truly feel like they needed the win. What a dream match-up.

I went 2-2 last week, although you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys should have won.  Good riddance.  So, two of my matchups stood up: Philadelphia @ New Orleans and Indianapolis @ Baltimore.  Let’s deal with those two first, because I’m flip-flopping on one of them (guess which one?).  Here we go:

NFC 

#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans

Apparently it doesn’t matter who Andy Reid puts out on the field; the Eagles just win football games.  But they won’t win this one.  In their regular season meeting, Sean Payton outcoached Reid in a close one that I was originally mad about.  The New Orleans Saints will play to win the game in the Superdome, and they will be successful.  I wish I could be there.

AFC

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore

Why am I changing my pick?  Two very important things happened last week that I, as a Colts fan, had been hoping for all year: 1 - Bob Sanders played.  I’ve always thought he was the difference maker on that defense, and it turns out that was true.  2 - Joseph Addai got the start.  Indy would have been good for 2 more wins this year if Tony Dungy hadn’t been so committed to Dominic Rhodes.  It was a smart move, though.  Addai is fresh, and it’s not like the Colts didn’t make it here.  The Ravens have been making stupid comments about Addai this week.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, you can’t get cocky against the Colts’ O.  Quick trivia question: What DB did Peyton beat to get his 49th TD pass a couple of years ago?  Chris McAllister.  By the way, Steve McNair isn’t the quarterback he was when he and Manning shared the MVP.

Two of the match-ups changed.  In the playoffs, match-ups are more important (usually) than how good a team is.

NFC

#4 Seattle @ #1 Chicago

Seattle seems to be the team that everybody’s overlooking.  I think that’s pretty justifiable, but it’s always dangerous.  The wild card in this game that a lot of people are talking about is Rex Grossman.  That’s the wrong place to put the emphasis.  If Seattle can establish the run game, get the Bears spread out, and exploit the corners, they will win.  It won’t happen.

AFC

#4 New England @ #1 San Diego

A lot of people are hyping this game up big-time.  The reasoning is that New England always does well in the postseason, they ended strong, bla bla bla.  Remember, those were relatively weak teams.  San Diego is not a weak team by any stretch.  Even if Bill Belichick were to live up to his genius label, it wouldn’t matter.  You cannot gameplan a tackle, and LT doesn’t just lie down for people.  To beat the Chargers, you have to have a passing game, and that’s the Pats weakness, Word Incarnate in Tom Brady notwithstanding.  Remember last week, when Peyton went 30/38 with one interception and two more because his receiver ran the wrong route?  Everybody talked about how horrible his game was.  Tom Brady will have a much worse game than that, but he’ll be praised for his performance if his defense can bail him out like in the past.