NFL Week 4 Power Rankings and Predictions

27 Sep 2008

Power Rankings

Record and last week’s rank are in parentheses.

  1. Dallas (3-0, 1) - This isn’t a mystery.  There are few elite teams this year, and Dallas is one of them.
  2. Philadelphia (2-1, 4) - They can be competitive in any kind of game against any team.
  3. Tennessee (3-0, 8) - Are they for real?  As long as Young stays on the sideline, apparently.
  4. Denver (3-0, 5) - Jay Cutler continues to impress.
  5. New York Giants (3-0, 6) - Good teams survive scares from less talented teams.  The Giants are a good team.
  6. Buffalo (3-0, 10) - Ditto for the Bills.  And look who they get to play this week.  A hint: They’re at #32 on this list.
  7. Pittsburgh (2-1, 3) - Plenty of injuries to go around, but they are deep enough - and well-coached enough - to overcome it.
  8. New England (2-1, 2) - They got killed.  They have a bye week this week and play San Francisco next.  Think it’ll happen twice in a row?
  9. Green Bay (2-1, 7) - There’s no shame in losing to the best team in the league, especially when you play in the NFC North.
  10. Baltimore (2-0, 16) - Big test this week against the Steelers.  Winner gets control of the division.
  11. San Diego (1-2, 12) - The absence of Shawn Merriman still worries me.
  12. Washington (2-1, 14) - Jason Campbell is beginning to look like a legitimate quarterback.
  13. San Francisco (2-1, 19) - Who saw this coming?
  14. Tampa Bay (2-1, 17) - They were saved by a bad penalty.  Still, look at what division they play in. 
  15. Arizona (2-1, 9) - Ken Whisenhunt is the man.
  16. Atlanta (2-1, 23) - Look, it’s not hard.  Give Michael Turner the ball and keep your defense off the field.
  17. Minnesota (1-2, 21) - Adrian Peterson was limited and they actually won.  I have a bad feeling about my fantasy team now.
  18. Jacksonville (1-2, 24) - They’re mediocre.  What else can you say?
  19. Chicago (1-2, 15) - I know I’m beating a dead horse, but…they’re horribly inconsistent.
  20. Indianapolis (1-2, 11) - Man, their run defense looks horrible. 
  21. Miami (1-2, 28) - They know they won’t be able to get away with the Single Wing again next week, right?  What’s that, they’re playing the Merriman-less Chargers?  Yeah, they’ve got a shot.
  22. Carolina (2-1, 13) - Look, I know they have a good record, but I just don’t believe.
  23. Seattle (1-2, 29) - Signs of life?  No, just playing against the Rams.  Show me something against a team that plays in the NFL.
  24. Oakland (1-2, 28) - They move up because other teams are bad, not because they’re good.
  25. New Orleans (1-2, 20) - So I guess the Saints reaching the NFC Championship a couple of years ago really was an anomaly.
  26. New York Jets (1-2, 26) - Wait, so Brett Favre throws a lot of interceptions?
  27. Houston (0-2, 22) - Turns out it wasn’t David Carr’s fault after all.  Oops.
  28. Detroit (0-3, 25) - But hey, Matt Millen is gone!
  29. Cleveland (0-3, 18) - The Browns (26) have somehow scored less points than the Rams (29).
  30. Cincinnati (0-3, 30) - On further review, I was way too optimistic about this team’s chances.
  31. Kansas City (0-3, 32) - Name one positive thing about their season so far.  Yeah, I can’t do it either.
  32. St. Louis (0-3, 31) - They already have a point spread of -87.
Predictions

Picks are winners only - no spread.  Home teams are in all caps.

Last Week: 11-5(.688),  Season: 26-21 (.553)

Atlanta over CAROLINA - Michael Turner and the Falcons will make a statement this week by beating Carolina in their house with a dominant running game.

CINCINNATI over Cleveland - Both teams are terrible, but they play in Cincinnati, so…

JACKSONVILLE over Houston - A team that pressures the quarterback well against a team that can’t protect theirs.  Advantage: Jaguars.

Denver over KANSAS CITY - This division matchup is usually pretty competitive, and I don’t think the Chiefs are going to roll over, but they still don’t have the personnel to pull this off.

San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS - I would likely pick the Saints if Colston and Shockey were healthy.  But they’re not, so I won’t.

Arizona over NEW YORK JETS - This week features two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (Brett Favre & Kurt Warner) facing off against each other.  Don’t be fooled: This game will be more about who has the better weapons.  Kurt Warner wins.

TAMPA BAY over Green Bay - Call me crazy, but I think Aaron Rodgers will struggle this week against Gruden’s defense.

TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are pretty similar - both teams like to run and both have great defenses. Tennessee is slightly more balanced, however.  Minnesota wants to throw, but doesn’t have quite the weapons that the Titans do.

San Diego over OAKLAND - On the surface, this game looks like a sure blowout, but let’s not forget that LDT is still not 100% and the Chargers had a short week.  Good thing for them they’re playing the Raiders.

Buffalo over ST LOUIS - The Bills are on the way up and the Rams are on the way down.  Easy money.

DALLAS over Washington - The Redskins need to run the ball if they’re going to have a chance.  Too bad the Cowboys have an excellent run defense.

Philadelphia over CHICAGO - The Eagles put pressure on the quarterback better than anybody.  Poor Kyle Orton.

PITTSBURGH over Baltimore - This game will be more competitive than you think, but I like the Steelers at home on Monday night.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

16 Sep 2008

From now on, power rankings will appear on Tuesday and predictions on Thursday, when possible.  Team Record and Last Week’s Ranking appear in parentheses.

  1. Dallas (2-0, 3) - Beat a very good Philadelphia team.  The offense looks unstoppable, as long as they don’t stop themselves.
  2. New England (2-0, 6) - No Brady?  Who cares?  He was just a game manager anyway.
  3. Pittsburgh (2-0, 1) - They barely hung on against a team they should have trashed.  Oh, and there was the weather and something about a bum shoulder?  If Roethlisberger heals up, they stay close to the top all season.  If not…look at the division they play in.  They’ll still be here.
  4. Philadelphia (1-1, 2) - Lost a heartbreaker to a division rival.  They’re still one of the teams to beat.
  5. Denver (2-0, 4) - So the refs gave them the game.  Did you see Brandon Marshall?
  6. New York Giants (2-0, 9) - They seem to have a never-ending supply of defensive linemen.
  7. Green Bay (2-0, 11) - People are starting to believe.  So am I.
  8. Tennessee (2-0, 14) - That defense is awesome.  Imagine if they still had Pacman Adam Jones.
  9. Arizona (2-0, 10) - They haven’t been tested yet.  That’s not their fault, but let’s see where they stand in a few weeks.
  10. Buffalo (2-0, 8.) - Looking good, so far.  Haven’t played anybody, so far.
  11. Indianapolis (1-1, 20) - In the second half on Sunday they showed signs of life for the first time since they won the Super Bowl.  Sure, their offensive line has been torn to shreds and their bread-and-butter play has been shelved for now, but look at the schedule: Jacksonville comes to town next week followed by a much-needed bye.
  12. San Diego (0-2, 18) - By far the best 0-2 team.  They’ve been robbed twice, but they still go in the right column in the standings.
  13. Carolina (2-0, 15) - And they get Steve Smith back next week.
  14. Washington (1-1, 25) - The 4th best team in the best division in the NFL.  Still not that bad.
  15. Chicago (1-1, 5) - The good Bears and the bad Bears showed up on Sunday.  So which one will show up this week?
  16. Baltimore (1-0, 16) - They stay in the same spot, as do the Texans.
  17. Tampa Bay (1-1, 27) - Playing Cincinnati makes any team look good.
  18. Cleveland (0-2, 26) - If they want to repeat last year’s success, they’ll need to start winning this week.
  19. San Francisco (1-1, 23) - They showed some guts this week.
  20. New Orleans (1-1, 12) - New Orleans needs to find someone who can run up the middle.
  21. Minnesota (0-2, 17) - Learn how to finish drives and teams won’t come back on you.
  22. Houston (0-1, 22) - At least they didn’t have to play in Milwaukee.
  23. Atlanta (1-1, 7) - Quick, name more than 3 players on their defense.
  24. Jacksonville (0-2, 19) - This was supposed to be their year?
  25. Detroit (0-2, 21) - Calvin Johnson is a beast.  He’s on a bad team.
  26. New York Jets (1-1, 13) - Mangini ran up the middle three straight times on the goal line?  He is Mangenius no more.
  27. Miami (0-2, 24) - They’re not any better than last year.
  28. Oakland (1-1, 31) - Poor Darren McFadden is stuck.
  29. Seattle (0-2, 29) - J.T. O’Sullivan passed for 321 yards on this defense.
  30. Cincinnati (0-2, 28) - Bad news: You have to play another elite defense this week.
  31. St. Louis (0-2, 32) - Embarassing, but at least it was against a good team this time. 
  32. Kansas City (0-2, 30) - When you lose to the #31 team by 15 points, you automatically get last place.

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings & Predictions

14 Sep 2008

For one week only, the power rankings are based on record; that is to say that the Top 16 are all 1-0.

  1. Pittsburgh - Looks great on both sides of the ball.  Roethlisberger is growing into a truly great quarterback.
  2. Philadelphia - They looked dominant last week.  It’s hard to conceive a team that wouldn’t look dominant against the Rams.
  3. Dallas - The offense was incredibly efficient - then again, since when has Cleveland had a defense?
  4. Denver - Imagine how much better they’ll be with Brandon Marshall.
  5. Chicago - The Bears of ‘06 are back - with a better running back.
  6. New England - Matt Cassel is the new Tom Brady - overratedness to follow?
  7. Atlanta - Not every week will be this easy for Matt Ryan.
  8. Buffalo - Can Trent Edwards keep it up?
  9. New York Giants - They are still the champs, just without the D-Line that won it for them.
  10. Arizona - Better than you think.
  11. Green Bay - Rodgers was moderately impressive against a good team.
  12. New Orleans - Reggie Bush is finally starting to live up to a portion of his billing.  Can he keep it up?
  13. New York Jets - They got lucky against the Dolphins and now we’re supposed to believe?
  14. Tennessee - Did somebody say, "QB issues?"
  15. Carolina - Got lucky on the final play.  They won’t be this high on the rankings next week.
  16. Baltimore - There’s room for Joe Flacco to grow.
  17. Minnesota - I still believe in the Vikes, but Tarvaris needs to step up.
  18. San Diego - They can overcome the Merriman injury, but only if the offense is much better.
  19. Jacksonville - Another team hurting from injuries.
  20. Indianapolis - And another.
  21. Detroit - They still need a defense.
  22. Houston - Offensive line issues - still.
  23. San Francisco - The Mike Martz era gets off to a rocky start…it’s the personnel, stupid.
  24. Miami - They look better with Chad Pennington, but they’re not there yet.
  25. Washington - Coach Zorn didn’t even have a 2-minute drill in place last week.  Um, this is the NFL?
  26. Cleveland - They need to be more competitive against the league’s top teams if they’re going to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke.
  27. Tampa Bay - This week’s benching of Jeff Garcia proves that Jon Gruden is evil.
  28. Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is off to a terrible start.
  29. Seattle - Lost to Buffalo by 24 points.  Need I say more?
  30. Kansas City - Am I the only one that remembers how bad Brodie Croyle was at Alabama?
  31. Oakland - I feel bad for Lane Kiffin.  Then again, who in their right mind takes this job?
  32. St. Louis - Just. Bad.  The worst part is, they have the talent to be much better.
Predictions: CIN over TEN, GB over DET, NO over WAS, KC over OAK, CHI over CAR, NYG over STL, JAX over BUF, MIN over IND, SF over SEA, ATL over TB, ARI over MIA, SD over DEN, NE over NYJ, ARI over MIA, PIT over CLE, PHI over DAL

MLB Power Rankings at the All Star Break

13 Jul 2008

I started doing a power ranking on July 1 at the other blog I told you about.  It was meant to be a collaborative effort, but while we’ve talked about working together, it hasn’t happened yet.  To avoid monopolizing the space over there, I will be posting my personal power ranking here on a weekly basis.  Look for a preview of the second half sometime later this week.  Last week’s rankings are in parentheses.

  1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2)
  2. Chicago Cubs (6)
  3. Boston Red Sox (4)
  4. New York Mets (20)
  5. Minnesota Twins (5)
  6. Chicago White Sox (3)
  7. Tampa Bay Rays (1)
  8. St. Louis Cardinals (7)
  9. Florida Marlins (12)
  10. Texas Rangers (14)
  11. Milwaukee Brewers (11)
  12. Philadelphia Phillies (13)
  13. New York Yankees (10)
  14. Oakland Athletics (8)
  15. Toronto Blue Jays (15)
  16. Detroit Tigers (9)
  17. Cincinnati Reds (22)
  18. Atlanta Braves (21)
  19. Arizona Diamondbacks (16)
  20. Los Angeles Dodgers (24)
  21. Houston Astros (18)
  22. Pittsburgh Pirates (23)
  23. Cleveland Indians (25)
  24. Kansas City Royals (19)
  25. San Francisco Giants (26)
  26. Baltimore Orioles (17)
  27. Colorado Rockies (30)
  28. San Diego Padres (28)
  29. Seattle Mariners (29)
  30. Washington Nationals (27)

Fun With Google

9 Jun 2008

One cool thing about running a blog on this site is that you can see how people get to your site.  Mostly people get here by typing in the address directly (totally cool that people actually do that, given the irregularity of the updates), but sometimes people actually link here (even cooler).  One other way, though, is by searching Google.  It’s sometimes cool to see the different searches that this blog shows up on.  Some that I see a lot are a player’s or team’s name followed by the word "overrated," which lead the searcher to the ever-popular posts about overrated players.  I mentioned Tank McNamara once, so apparently anytime someone searches for the popular comic, my site pops up, and I occasionally get visitors for that.  A lot of times people ask questions, like "When did the Texas Rangers last win a pennant?" (the answer: Never.  1 win in 3 playoff appearances does not equal a pennant.) or "What are the NFL teams in alphabetical order?"  This is the typical stuff.

Every once in a while, though, there are searches that make me laugh out loud.  There have been three recently that had that effect on me, and I wanted to share them with you:

1: Google: dallas cowboys players who refer to themselves in third person

JFS actually shows up 2nd on the results list for this one!

2: Google: baseball bigamist

Again, we’re #2. 

3: Google: donovan mcnabb super bowl vomit

#3 this time, although Google actually links to the "New Orleans Saints" category.  Who knew? 

If you’re one of the Googlers who stumbled this way, welcome, and I hope you found what you’re looking for. 

The Baseball Quarterpole

16 May 2008

Interleague play starts tomorrow, which means at least one thing: Baseball records and statistics start to mean something.  Up until now, it’s all about positioning.  Sometimes the Pirates or the Royals stay close to the top of the division a couple of weeks in, but unless they make it to the quarterpole with a respectable record, it doesn’t matter.  Obviously, things can always change, but at this time of the year you can put some stock into trends and statistics.  Here are some observations about the state of the Majors:

American League 

East - As of today, the Rays are in first place in the AL East.  Who knew?  We did.  Will they keep it up?  A strong pitching staff, a surprise closer, and some young upstart players say they will probably stay in the race longer than most think.

Central - Our chosen AL representative, the Detroit Tigers, sit in last place in the Central, 6 games back of first.  Can they turn it around?  Only if their starting pitching delivers.   Minnesota and Chicago hover around .500, and both teams could go either way.  This will likely be a competitive division deep into September.

West - The Mariners do not look good at all.  The loss of Erik Bedard coupled with the offense acting their age is a recipe for last place in the league’s smallest division.  The A’s are off to a surprising start and the Rangers can’t decide if they’re a basement team or a contender - the end result will likely be a record around .500, which will be an accomplishment for this team.

Statistics and Trends to Note: 

  • The Rays own the best home record at 16-8 as well as the best overall record.  Their 24-17 record puts them on pace for 95 wins.
  • Only two teams have a winning record away from home: California and Oakland.  Could it be because they both get to play the Rangers and Mariners more than anybody else?
  • The team with the worst record is Seattle, at 16-26.   They are on pace for a 62-100 season.
  • The Tigers are 5-1 vs. LHPs and 11-24 vs RHPs.  Too many right-handed bats in the lineup?
  • The Red Sox have scored by far the most runs: 216.  The next highest total is owned by Texas, with 200.  However, the Rangers have also given up an AL-high 229.  Puts the Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton trade in perspective, huh?

National League

East - The Marlins are the surprise team of the NL.  Has anybody mentioned that the have the league’s lowest payroll?  Meanwhile, the Mets are stuck around .500 and reportedly have chemistry issues.  The Braves play inconsistently, so it looks like the Phillies stand poised to benefit from a Marlins collapse - if it happens.

Central - It would be easy to say "I told you so."  So I’m going to do it.  The Cubs looks like they’re in control (for now), Houston is playing better than everybody thought, and the Brewers are tied for fourth with…Pittsburgh.  The only surprise in our mind is that St. Louis is playing so well, and they don’t even have key pieces of their rotation pitching at the moment.  If Carpenter and Mulder come in and pitch well, they could run away with the division.  On the other hand, they could struggle to find their mid-season form and create all kinds of chemistry issues.  The top three teams are separated by 2 games, so anything could happen, but it seems clear that by the All-Star break there will be only 3 serious contenders in this six-team division.

West - It looked like four teams would contend for the West division title, but only two appear to have a shot.  The Diamondbacks are red-hot as expected, and the Dodgers look good as well.  Only three teams in the entire league are 9 or more games back of first place, and they all call the NL West home.  

Statistics and Trends to Note:

  • The Diamondbacks boast the best record in either league at 26-15, which puts them on pace for 103 wins.
  • Three teams have home records over .700: The Braves (14-4), the Cubs(17-7), and the Diamondbacks (17-7).  The Braves are 6-16 on the road, however, making them and even .500 overall.
  • San Diego has the worst record in either league at 15-27, which gives them an expected loss total of 104.
  • All three teams at the bottom of the NL West have given up 200 or more runs.  The Rockies share the league "lead" with the Pirates.  The Padres have an already dismal run differential of -60.
  • The best run differential belongs to the Cubs, at +68.  They also boast the most runs total at 238, while the Braves have given up the least runs: 154. 
  • Atlanta, which sports a .500 record, is 1-11 in 1-run games.  Amazingly, the Reds are 8-3 despite sole possession of last place in the NL Central.

The Best Games of the Last 10 Years

4 Feb 2008

Last night we were all graced with one of the great football games in recent memory.  It surely goes down as one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen.  If I had to choose the five greatest games in all sports in the last ten years without spending a bunch of time thinking about it or researching, they would go as follows:

5 - 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Boise State over Oklahoma, 43-42 (OT).  This makes the list for me because (A) I hate Oklahoma - see sidebar, (B) Nobody thought Boise State would stick it to OU for three and half quarters, much less pull the upset, and (C) Those last couple of plays - The Hook and Lateral and The Statue of Liberty.  Instant classic.

4 - Super Bowl XLII, New York Giants over New England, 17-14.  Not many people predicted a low-scoring game, much less a close one.  The three lead changes in the 4th quarter plus Eli Manning’s escape/David Tyree’s catch (Do we have a name for that yet?) made it a great game anyway.  The storyline behind the game (destroying the perfect season, etc.) put it on the list.

3 - 2004 AL Championship Series, Games 4 & 5, Boston over New York.  Game 4: 6-4 (12 innings).  Game 5: 5-4 (14 innings).  I think it’s fair to lump these two together because it was really the series that was impressive.  Also, Game 5 started 16 hours after Game 4 ended.  These games were great not only because nobody had ever come back from a 3-0 deficit before, but because the Yankees had so thoroughly dominated the series up until that point.  The way they won those games was just fantastic.

2 - 2006 Rose Bowl, Texas over USC, 41-38.  This one was just like last night’s game, except with 4 times the scoring.  USC were the overwhelming favorites, and Texas overcame the odds in the Championship Game, with Vince Young scoring the winning touchdown on 4th down.

1 - 1998 NBA Finals, Game 6, Chicago over Utah, 87-86. Michael Jordan hits "The Shot" (Does that play have a name?  What is it?) in his last game in a Bulls uniform to cap off a 45-point performance and the Bulls 6th Championship.

There are some others that perhaps mean more to me than the greater sports world:

1999 Stanley Cup Finals, Game 6, Dallas over Buffalo, 2-1 (Triple OT).  Creasegate.  Modano plays 55 minutes with a cast on his arm.

June 29, 2007, Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee, 6-5.  The Cubs rally from a 5-0 deficit to win on Aramis’ walkoff home run.  This game also turned the tide in the division race.

2007 NL Wild Card Tiebreaker Game, Colorado over San Diego, 9-8 (13 innings).  This was a great game even before the 13th inning.  Plenty of offense early, followed by dominant pitching and stellar defense.  There was a grand slam and a killer error that allowed the game to go into extras in the first place.  The Padres got 2 in the 13th, and the game was thought over.  But the Cinderella Rockies beat the odds and killed Trevor Hoffman.  The play at the plate, which is consistently the best play in sports, capped it all off. 

2006 NL Championship, Game 6, Florida over Chicago Cubs, 8-3.  I hate this game, but for the Marlins, this was a GREAT game.  Cubs fans, please don’t blame Bartman.  Blame Baker.

2007 AFC Championship Game, Indianapolis over New England, 38-34.  If this game was the Super Bowl, it might have made the list.  The Colts looked dead in the water, behind 21-3, then rallied to beat the team that had been keeping them down in dramatic fashion.

Feel free to disagree or suggest some other games. 

I’m too dumb to embed YouTube videos, so here’s a couple of links:

Great Play

Best Commercial