My NFL 2006 Picks

2 Sep 2006

Division Champs:
NFC: Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Dallas
AFC: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, Miami

Wild Cards:
NFC: Tampa Bay, NY Giants
AFC: Pittsburgh, San Diego

Award Predictions:
Coach of the Year: Nick Saban
MVP: Marvin Harrison
Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
Offensive ROY: Mike Bell
Defensive ROY: Haloti Ngata
NFC Champ: Carolina
AFC Champ: Indianapolis
Super Bowl Champ: Indianapolis

Off-the-wall Predictions:
Most Improved Team: Arizona
Biggest Breakout Player: Philip Rivers
Biggest Bust: Vince Young
NFC Offensive POY: Shaun Alexander
NFC Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
AFC Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
AFC Defensive POY: Shawne Merriman
First Coach Fired: Andy Reid
First Quarterback Benched: Kurt Warner
First Kicker Fired: Jay Feely
Next Year’s #1 Pick: New Orleans
#1 Fantasy QB: Carson Palmer
#1 Fantasy RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
#1 Fantasy WR: Steve Smith
#1 Fantasy TE: Randy McMichael
#1 Fantasy K: John Kasay
#1 Fantasy DEF: Chicago
One Devastating Injury that will happen: Deion Branch will join his new team (or go back to the Patriots), have 1 or 2 big games, then get injured for the season.

I am prepared to defend any and all positions, so come with it.

The Solution to the Idiot Kicker Problem

1 Sep 2006

So I watched the Cowboys game last night. A few of us had a good time poking fun at the second-rate announcing team, etc. The best moment, though, had to be when the Idiot Kicker got up to win the game in overtime. I, being a bandwagon Colts fan, made a few disparaging comments about the last time ol’ Vandy was on the field (last year’s playoffs). I jokingly said, “I’m going to start calling him, ‘Wide Right.’” At that very instant, he pushed it right. We went crazy. He would go on to repeat the feat later on, and the Cowboys ended up tying. Sure, it was the preseason, but my Cowboy crazy friends were upset. The Idiot Kicker had stricken again.

Fast forward to this morning. I’m on espn.com watching the tiny little video they have in the corner, (I have no cable or anything right this second) and somebody’s interviewing Liquorface. The following exchange occurred:

Reporter: How long are you going to stew about these missed field goals?

(I’m secretly hoping that he breaks into tears, just like last year.)

Wide Right: I’m not going to stew about it; I’m just going to go out and kick a hundred field goals a day until I figure out what went wrong.

Whoa! You mean to tell me that professional kickers - people that kick a ball for hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars a year - only kick 100 field goals a day?!? And that’s when he’s having problems and trying to fix them!

Football fans get so upset with kickers sometimes. Seriously, when it’s your only job, you should do it well blablabla…how many times has that been said on Sunday afternoon? I think these guys are taking advantage of everybody. Let’s see…got a big game this weekend. It’s possible that my teammates will sacrifice their bodies, beat each other up for 59 minutes, and then the whole thing will come down to my ability to kick a ball. I think I’ll kick about 50 times or so and call it a day. Gotta be home when the exterminator comes over, and there’s some cleaning to do…

Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. However, I think it points to something that a lot of football fans actually believe, but won’t admit because they’re afraid of change. The kicking game (at least the field goal part) has got to go. This is the one point I agree with Skip Bayless on. I understand why the kicking game is the way it is. If you can’t get into the end zone, at least you get rewarded with three points (assuming your kicker doesn’t boot the ball into Ohio. No, I’m not going to leave it alone.). But why are we so intent on rewarding mediocrity? Shouldn’t a defense that makes a stand in the red zone get more than, “Well, we limited them to three points.” This argument doesn’t hold just a ton of water, but there’s still an element of truth to it. If there was no “celebration of mediocrity,” as I like to call it, there just wouldn’t be enough variation in the point system. If a team wins solely on the number of touchdowns they score, why not value them at one point each?

Instead, I would like to propose an alternative that still rewards a team for marching down the field, but doesn’t rely on one man’s ability to kick a ball far and straight. The first step is to identify a threshold, such as the opposing team’s 35 yardline. If the team on offense passes this threshold, they have a choice to make on fourth down. In the past, the choice would be to go for the first down or kick a field goal. Under the new system, a team could choose to attempt the “four-point conversion,” where the ball is placed on the 5 yardline and the offense has one opportunity to get the ball into the endzone. The try would be worth four points because (1) it would be successful less often, and (2) because teams would be forced to try a two-point conversion after touchdowns, making scores in multiples of seven virtually obsolete.

I understand that this would drastically change the game and its strategy. The team’s punter is probably going to be the kickoff starter, making kickoffs more interesting. As said before, two-point conversions would be mandatory. I believe that it makes the two-minute drill much more interesting. Defenses will have to decide how to guard the 35-yard threshold. Do you load up the line when a team gets close to defend against the four-point possibility, leaving you vulnerable to the more valuable touchdown? Entire new formations would be developed on both sides of the ball to try to adapt to these new, packed with pressure situations. Best of all, a game will never be decided by an Idiot Kicker who got liquored up and forgot where the goalpost was.

There are probably problems with my system. For instance, a 25 yard field goal is easier than a 50 yard field goal, so maybe the ball should be placed in different places close to the goal line based on where the offense stalled on the drive. Maybe my point system is a little simplistic and idealistic. Maybe I’m bitter because of last year’s playoffs. Maybe football fans like having a scapegoat such as the Idiot Kicker when they know their team never should have been in a situation to send the game into overtime (There’s another rule in professional football that has to be changed. Ugh. Take a cue from the college game). Maybe you’re too opposed to change. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s better than the one we’ve got now. You might not agree with me yet, but I think you will in Week 15 when your team’s playoff chances are doused by its own Idiot Kicker, who decided that 100 field goals a day was just too much for him.

These Three Things I Know Are True

2 May 2006

1. Everybody has an agenda, including Barry himself, about Barry Bonds.

I usually have a Tuesday night class, so tonight was the first time I was able to catch “Bonds on Bonds.” I wasn’t impressed. There are two things you have to say when talking about this show: (1) like any controversial issue, everybody, myself included, has a preconceived notion about it. More on this below. (2) Barry Bonds has complete creative control over the project, which means that every single second, from Barry comparing himself to Mohammed Ali to Mark Grace sticking up for an old friend, has been through the spin cycle. It’s like the SportsCenter commercial where Dwyane Wade gets to edit his own highlights. “Can we add a couple more defenders in right here and make it look better?” I have to admit that I turned on the show expecting to be cynical because I have already convicted Bonds in my mind. The fact that he is trying to cover up and suck up to the media and the fans after years of being a jerk makes it that much worse. To some extent this isn’t fair. I have certainly made my share of missteps, and it would be completely justifiable for some people to get on a blog and rip into me. The difference is that I haven’t betrayed the trust of a nation. There’s a scene in “The Great Gatsby” where Jay Gatsby introduces Nick Carraway to Meyer Wolfsheim, the gambler who fixed the 1919 World Series. Carraway narrates the following reaction:

The idea staggered me. I remembered, of course, that the World Series had been fixed in 1919, but if I had thought of it at all I would have thought of it as a thing that merely happened, the end of some inevitable chain. It never occured to me that one man could start to play with the faith of fifty million people - with the single-mindedness of a burglar blowing a safe.
“How did he happen to do that?” I asked after a minute.
“He just saw the opportunity.”

I’m about two-thirds of the way through “Game of Shadows,” and though Fainawaru-Wada and Williams have a pile of hard, incriminating facts, it’s evident that there’s a touch of bias as well. There’s nothing wrong with that; we all have it. I guess I’m just trying to say that I’m not sure what to do about Barry Bonds just yet, but I am convinced that it’s important. I do know that you can’t trust “Bonds on Bonds” at face value though, and that’s my point at the moment.

2. The Houston Texans made the right choice by taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush.

Tonight ESPN aired a draft wrap-up show, and the talking heads had Texans owner Bob McNair on to ask him some pointed questions. First of all, let me say that anybody who is aware of the media circus surrounding the NFL draft knows that any team that passed on Reggie Bush was begging to be crucified. (self-plug: I told you so.) That’s why I admire the pick of Mario Williams even more. McNair made three legitimate points about why they did what they did: (1) Last year, the Texans led at halftime 8 times (4 times going into the 4th quarter), and they lost every single one of those games. That’s not the offense’s fault; it’s the defense’s. They already have a 1,000 yard rusher in Domanick Davis; if Reggie even gets close to the hype and gets 1,500 it still wouldn’t have made a difference. The Texans need a playmaker on defense, not a guy who might be an upgrade over the one they already have. (2) The rest of the NFL has figured out that the way to beat Peyton Manning is to put pressure on him. Just ask the Steelers. The Texans have to play the Colts twice every year, and this pick gives them a legitimate chance to compete on the same field. (3) Barry Sanders only won one playoff game. To this day, the Detroit Lions continue to draft offense, and it hasn’t helped them yet. In the NFL, you have to be able to play on both sides of the ball. Ron Jaworski disputes this fact, but Jaworski has evidently forgotten two things: (1) he’s not dealing with his Arena team, where players play both ways, and (2) he has continually ripped the Indianapolis Colts for being all offense and no defense. For all of the talking heads, I have a prediction of my own: 2006 is the year that fans stop taking the “draft experts” seriously because Reggie Bush will be a big-time bust, and New Orleans will continue to be irrelevant.

3. Kobe Bryant is way over-hyped.

Today I sat around with some people and talked, in a positive manner, about Kobe Bryant. For those of you who know me and the people I associate with, this should be a surprise. I have never liked him, and it’s not just because he’s a veteran or has swagger. The main knock on Kobe has always been that he’s selfish. Whether or not you believe that he ran Shaq out of Los Angeles, it is an irrefutable fact that he hoists up way too many shots every game. Recently, however, he has been getting his teammates involved, which is an even bigger accomplishment when you consider his teammates. One of the talking heads on ESPN recently called him “the Mariano Rivera of basketball,” implying that he has an exceptional ability to close games. This is ironic if you consider that espn.com recently ran an article about clutch shooting. Much has been made of the Nike commercial where Michael Jordan states that he has let his teammates down 24 times. The fact is, Kobe has done the same thing many more times than that. In fact, with less than 24 seconds left and his team down by three points or less, Kobe has one of the lowest shooting percentages in the NBA. In a recent poll, 58.4% of fans said that Kobe had been the top performer of the first round of the playoffs. However, on the same page, there’s a link to a page that shows each player’s Player Efficiency Rating, or PER. PER is a statistic developed by John Hollinger to measure each player’s per-minute performance. 15.0 is supposed to be the standard average. For the 2004-05 season, Bryant finished a respectable 8th in PER with a 23.28. However, in this year’s playoffs, he is 39th with a 16.52, less than half of first-place Dirk Nowitzki’s 33.69. Supposed “slouch” teammate Lamar Odom is ranked 22nd with a 19.5. The only way the Lakers will continue to win is if Kobe continues the surprising trend of being a member of a team and doesn’t jack up 35 shots a game. Otherwise, the Los Angeles Kobes will lose to the team that plays in the Staples Center.

I Don’t Care About Your HS Video

16 Apr 2006

Note: This post originally appeared on January 3, 2006.

Last night, ESPN did a special piece about a highlight video that Reggie Bush’s high school put together. Ugh.

A couple of weeks ago on ESPN Radio, Colin Cowsherd (who is a typical ESPN employee - cheers shamelessly for any team from New York, LA, Chicago, and Boston and never gives anybody else a chance) was raving about how the Rose Bowl was already decided when he stopped and declared that in his opinion, this year’s USC team is the probably the greatest of all time. I almost called in. Thankfully, somebody else did. The caller from Houston told Cowsherd that Bush won the Heisman because ESPN is USC’s number one fan. Cowsherd, of course, cut off the caller right away and got very defensive and angry. “We just report the most intriguing stories!” he thundered. I laughed for probably ten minutes. It’s so funny that a team as good as Texas gets almost no chance from anybody to win this game. Mack Brown said it very well himself today in a press conference: “I would like to thank all of the members of the media. I don’t even have to make a pep talk.” Here are 5 reasons Texas will beat USC tomorrow night:

1) Reggie Bush isn’t as good as everybody makes him out to be. I compare him to Ki Jana Carter. He’s great when he’s around people who can’t tackle, but he won’t make it in the pros. Every single one of his highlight runs have come against poor tackling teams. Every single one of those runs gets at most five yards against a team that will tackle well. This leads me to my next point…

2) Texas’ defense is way better than any other defense USC has seen all year. This is one fact that the talking heads will actually concede, and I think the fact that USC hasn’t really been tested hurts them. You can’t rely on converting 4th and 9 versus this team.

3) USC’s defense is suspect, and Texas has all the weapons to beat them. As a matter of fact, I’d have to agree with Vince Young that position for position, UT’s offense is superb to USC’s. The two O-lines are easily the best two in the nation. Vince is better than Leinart. Charles can play with Bush. Tweedie, Sweed, Pittman, and Strong are much better weapons than what USC offers.

4) UT only really had one close game this year (Ohio State). There were a couple that were close for a half or so (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State), but ultimately they dominated those games as well. USC had trouble with Notre Dame, Fresno State, and lest we forget, Arizona State. The analysts will tell you that USC is simply a second-half team that lowers its intensity when it meets a lesser opponent. I see weakness. Here are the results for these three teams in bowl games: Arizona State barely survived Rutgers, 45-40 in the Insight Bowl. Fresno State lost to Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl. Tulsa isn’t exactly known for its offensive prowess, but they outgained Fresno State 430-421 despite only holding the ball for 21:40. Kind of puts Reggie Bush’s big day in perspective, eh? Finally, there’s Notre Dame. They got whipped by an Ohio State team that gave Texas everything they had earlier in the season. Keep in mind, Notre Dame was the team on the other side of the “epic” game between so-called giants. Notre Dame is one of the most overrated teams of 2005, yet it took an illegal push for USC to beat them. Texas has played better all year long; is there any reason to doubt that tomorrow’s game will be any different?

5) Matt Leinart is bored. I’m all about athletes finishing school, but if you watch the interviews that he’s given in the past weeks, he’s got that “been there, done that” attitude about the National Championship game. He used to get really emotional and fired up whenever he talked about upcoming games, but last time I saw him on TV, he stifled a yawn twice. Even if he can elevate his play at gametime, that kind of attitude is contagious. Look for his USC teammates to be flat and unmotivated. After all, they’ve already been crowned one of the greatest teams of all time. What is there to play for?

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