Just for Sport

Well, we’re down to the final four. Three of the teams left are teams I’ve been cheering for this year, and the other one is one I can’t stand. One of these teams will be the Super Bowl champion, and I think I will vomit if it is the Patriots. This is a tough week for picking winners, as most Championship weeks are. There’s so much build-up this time around, especially in the AFC. It will be fun to find out if both games can live up to their billing. Let’s start in the NFC.

Bears-Saints
I’ve been rooting for both teams this year, for very different reasons. ACU’s own Danieal Manning has been doing a great job in his rookie season starting at Free Safety for the Bears. One article I read at the beginning of the season (I’d link to it, but the article is no longer free) called him “a promising young player that covers like a cornerback and hits like a linebacker.” What an endorsement. I’ve also been cheering for the Saints because of the Katrina factor. When I was in the New Orleans area this summer, the fact that the team was coming back at all was a source of excitement. Nobody expected they’d do this well. Ultimately, I’d like the Saints to win because I think America needs to continue to hear stories from Hurricane Katrina. I think they will get it done. In a shootout, which is a possibility, the Bears won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. I’m not sure how high each team will go, but the Saints win by two field goals. Look for Drew Brees to frustrate Brian Urlacher.

Colts-Patriots
I’m scared about this weekend, for three reasons: (1) If the Colts can’t pull it off now, can they ever? (2) Earlier in the postseason, the Colts performed well partly because they felt they were underdogs. Now it might be tempting for them to come out and think that they deserve it. (3) Recent history aside, I’m still worried about the run defense. Having said that, I’m still confident. Even if Rodney Harrison is able to play, the Patriots’ secondary is still very beatable. I’m feeling a rant coming. If you don’t want to read it, skip the next paragraph.

It’s always driven me nuts that Tom Brady gets all the credit for the success of the Patriots. Weren’t they the team that chose to be introduced all together at the Super Bowl? Yet, when Adam Vinatieri or the Patriots defense win a game for the Patriots (or the ref calls a “tuck rule” or John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds or Donovan McNabb throws up on the final drive), Brady gets praised. “His” playoff record is 12-1. After last week’s game, which was horrible, Scott Van Pelt was moved to say, “In the end, Tom Brady was just better.” The Chargers missed a field goal! Sean Salisbury, who has always slurped up to Brady said, “This game shows why Tom Brady is the most clutch quarterback in playoff history.” Are you kidding me? Read what I wrote last week, and tell me if I was right.

In any case, I’m taking the Colts. It will be close for a half, but the Colts O will come out and put it away sometime in the early fourth quarter, making the RCA Dome a rockin’ place. All of this will set up…

Super Bowl XLI: Colts-Saints
Inevitably, this game would come to be known as “The Archie Manning Bowl.” So much publicity would surround the Manning family even I would get tired of it. Media circus aside, this would be a great game. Both teams, if they won this week, would come in with all kinds of momentum. Both offenses would have field days. Most importantly, both teams would really, truly feel like they needed the win. What a dream match-up.

I went 2-2 last week, although you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys should have won.  Good riddance.  So, two of my matchups stood up: Philadelphia @ New Orleans and Indianapolis @ Baltimore.  Let’s deal with those two first, because I’m flip-flopping on one of them (guess which one?).  Here we go:

NFC 

#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans

Apparently it doesn’t matter who Andy Reid puts out on the field; the Eagles just win football games.  But they won’t win this one.  In their regular season meeting, Sean Payton outcoached Reid in a close one that I was originally mad about.  The New Orleans Saints will play to win the game in the Superdome, and they will be successful.  I wish I could be there.

AFC

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore

Why am I changing my pick?  Two very important things happened last week that I, as a Colts fan, had been hoping for all year: 1 - Bob Sanders played.  I’ve always thought he was the difference maker on that defense, and it turns out that was true.  2 - Joseph Addai got the start.  Indy would have been good for 2 more wins this year if Tony Dungy hadn’t been so committed to Dominic Rhodes.  It was a smart move, though.  Addai is fresh, and it’s not like the Colts didn’t make it here.  The Ravens have been making stupid comments about Addai this week.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, you can’t get cocky against the Colts’ O.  Quick trivia question: What DB did Peyton beat to get his 49th TD pass a couple of years ago?  Chris McAllister.  By the way, Steve McNair isn’t the quarterback he was when he and Manning shared the MVP.

Two of the match-ups changed.  In the playoffs, match-ups are more important (usually) than how good a team is.

NFC

#4 Seattle @ #1 Chicago

Seattle seems to be the team that everybody’s overlooking.  I think that’s pretty justifiable, but it’s always dangerous.  The wild card in this game that a lot of people are talking about is Rex Grossman.  That’s the wrong place to put the emphasis.  If Seattle can establish the run game, get the Bears spread out, and exploit the corners, they will win.  It won’t happen.

AFC

#4 New England @ #1 San Diego

A lot of people are hyping this game up big-time.  The reasoning is that New England always does well in the postseason, they ended strong, bla bla bla.  Remember, those were relatively weak teams.  San Diego is not a weak team by any stretch.  Even if Bill Belichick were to live up to his genius label, it wouldn’t matter.  You cannot gameplan a tackle, and LT doesn’t just lie down for people.  To beat the Chargers, you have to have a passing game, and that’s the Pats weakness, Word Incarnate in Tom Brady notwithstanding.  Remember last week, when Peyton went 30/38 with one interception and two more because his receiver ran the wrong route?  Everybody talked about how horrible his game was.  Tom Brady will have a much worse game than that, but he’ll be praised for his performance if his defense can bail him out like in the past.

I haven’t posted my picks since Week 7 (schoolwork started to catch up to me), and since then I fell from 62-25 (.713) to 150-106 (.586). It’s not as bad as it looks, since I didn’t get my Week 12 picks in on time and went 0-16 that week. Anyway, I ended up tying with my father in our challenge after mounting a five week comeback. These picks have to be right, since we will be using the entire playoffs as a tiebreaker.

NFC Wild Card
#6 NY Giants @ #3 Philadelphia
These two split their regular season matchups, with the Giants winning in Week 2 and the Eagles taking it in Week 15. These teams know each other very well, which means a lot of what happens here will come down to coaching. In that case, I take Andy Reid over Tom Coughlin every time.

#5 Dallas @ #4 Seattle
A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure the Cowboys could go deep in the playoffs. Now it seems like the rest of the league is catching up to Romo, and the Seahawks make for a pretty tough first round opponent. They have what many believe to be the best home field advantage in the league. However, Mike Holmgren showed me something this week: He doesn’t believe in his team. Why else would he talk all week as if Shaun Alexander weren’t playing, and then give him the ball 29 times…and in a meaningless game against the Bucs? Sure, the Cowboys had something to play for and lost to a horrible team, but riding your players hard unnecessarily? This happens at least once every year, and that team invariably loses.

AFC Wild Card
#6 Kansas City @ #3 Indianapolis
This is Indy’s weakest year in a long time, but I can’t see them losing to Herm Edwards in the playoffs. Larry Johnson will certainly tear up that run defense, but Peyton will also carve up the Chief’s secondary. Ty Law can’t cover anybody, and you can bet that even if it is close, Herm will find a way to mismanage the clock and give it to the Colts. By the way, (and I don’t want to overstate this) if Bob Sanders can play, the run defense will be twice as good. I know that’s not saying a lot, but still.

#5 New York Jets @ #4 New England
Once again, these two teams split their regular season meetings. The Patriots fended off a Jets comeback in Week 2, and the Jets took Week 10 in a close one. Here’s my beef: The talking heads still speak of New England as if they were the perfect team. They’ve got terrific chemistry, any ball Tom Brady throws turns to gold, Belichick deserves a Nobel prize, they’ve got loads more class than anybody, etc. In the past year, they’ve shown me none of these qualities. In the first round last year, they kept their starters in a ran up the score against Jacksonville. Then karma caught up to them and they lost to the Broncos. They whined and whined about the Champ Bailey play. Maybe they were justified, but show me how that means they have class. Tom Brady can’t hit an open receiver (it’s not the receivers’ fault, stop giving him a free pass), and in Week 10 the Jets went into Gillette and beat the Pats in a game Belichick desperately wanted to win. And just when you hadn’t heard any whining in a while, all the players got up in arms over an injury to an injury-prone player (Harrison) that happened on a routine play. It’s bad news when that’s what the locker room is trying to rally around. The Jets defense gets it done in this one. Just as I wrote this, some guy on Cold Pizza said the “Jets had no chance to win” and “Tom Brady has been disrespected this year”. Give me a break.

NFC Divisional Playoff
#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans
Remember back in September, when everybody thought that the Falcons would come into the Superdome and ruin the Saints first home game? Then U2 came in and New Orleans played out of their minds in front of a rowdy crowd. The Saints have ridden that momentum all the way through the season, and Jeff Garcia is not going to be the person to take that away.

#5 Dallas @ #1 Chicago
After Dallas upsets Seattle on the road, they will face the *real* best home field advantage in the league. I’m sure a lot of people have Chicago one and done because of the inconsistent play of Rex Grossman, but the defense and special teams will more than make up for it against Dallas.

AFC Divisional Playoff
#5 NY Jets @ #1 San Diego
Mangini can get the Jets up for the game against New England, but San Diego is too talented to be overcome by willpower alone. The Jets have a good defense, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons; they may not even have to use them all.

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore
I’ve been dumping on Steve McNair all year long. I’m still not a believer, but he’s more than able to get it done against this defense. Unlike Kansas City, they have multiple weapons and will be able to drive the ball and keep Manning off the field.

NFC Championship
#2 New Orleans @ #1 Chicago
At different times this season, I have been a believer in each of these teams. I’m not completely sold on the Saints, but I believe in Drew Brees.

AFC Championship
#2 Baltimore @ #1 San Diego
This, I believe, is where McNair falters. San Diego’s secondary has always been suspect, but pressure from the other side of the ball will force Steve into mistakes.

Super Bowl XLI
New Orleans vs. San Diego
It will be a hard fought game, but LaDainian Tomlinson will emerge from his record-breaking season as the Super Bowl MVP. 34-28.

Welcome to the inaugural NFL All-Overrated Team. A good portion of our Monday Night Football get-togethers involve a lot of complaining about overrated players, especially when the Vikings play and the MNF crew won’t shut up about Brad Johnson. So, we decided to put our money where our mouth is and come up with a team full of these guys. This team was put together by a committee of five self-proclaimed experts in the field. Here’s the criteria:

1 - Current players only. In the words of Mark McGwire, “We’re not here to talk about the past.”

2 - This is not a lifetime achievement award, but it’s not just a 2006 thing, either. We tried to take into account the past 3-5 years. We do have some rookies and second and third year players, so take that with a grain of salt. Certainly, it’s possible that many rookies who have a lot of hype surrounding them will improve, but you can’t really leave them off the list. We wanted to include the entire league.

3 - In order to be overrated, a player must have a certain amount of “rated-ness.” This is not a bad players list. There are some players that we consider to be very good, but not necessarily worthy of all the hero worship. It may be that there is a major flaw in their game that gets downplayed, or that their stats don’t seem to back the perception.

4 - We limited the number of players per position. In some cases this turned out to be good, others not so much. Our initial list of quarterbacks encompassed almost half the league, but we really struggled to fill out the linebacker corps. We ended up with 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 4 DL, 3 LBs, 5 DBs, and 1 K. We didn’t do any offensive linemen, because we didn’t feel we knew enough about it.

5 - Once again, this team was picked by a committee. Not all of us agreed with all of the picks. In fact, each of us were dissatisfied with at least one choice during the process. I will be noting my grievances in the comments, and I will encourage the others to do the same. You, the reader, are encouraged to follow suit.

6 - The players are listed in alphabetical order. It’s not a depth chart.

QB
Brad Johnson
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger

Our quarterbacks are represented by two young guys and a really old one. We felt that Eli got too much press for being in the Manning family, and Roethlisberger is one of the guys that isn’t spectacular, but doesn’t make many mistakes. He gets way too much credit for the work his teammates do (Terry Bradshaw syndrome). Brad Johnson’s merits have already been discussed.

RB
Reggie Bush
Edgerrin James
LaMont Jordan

Reggie Bush was destined to be on this team the moment a columnist compared the draft to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. He’s not a good running back, and the committee believes he would be best served by switching to a WR. Edgerrin James is starting to make us believe that he was a “product of the system” in Indy. He’s not even one of the three best players in Arizona right now. LaMont Jordan has been a bust in every sense of the word. In fact, one of our own drafted him in the second round, only to drop him. He remains a free agent in our league.

WR
Ashley Lelie
Jerry Porter
Mike Williams

Williams, a former first round pick, ended up getting cut this offseason. Lelie, also a first rounder, had no catches this week and has not been the “downfield threat” he is billed to be. Porter has been a disappointment, as he cannot even get on the field. Contrary to popular opinion, the committee believes it wouldn’t make a difference, anyway.

TE
Kellen Winslow

Behind closed doors (and on the internet), I call him “The Mouth.” It seems like Winslow always has something to say in the locker room, but never seems to be able to say it on the field.

DL
Courtney Brown
Ebenezer Ekuban
Dwight Freeney
Jevon Kearse

We feature two Denver Broncos on our defensive line. Courtney Brown was supposed to be the next big thing, and a 70 tackle performance in his rookie season added fuel to the fire. He hasn’t even come close to replicating that success, but commentators remain convinced of his prowess. He recorded 24 tackles in 14 games last season, and has been unable to make it the field this year. Ebenezer was also supposed to be the second coming in Dallas, but ended up frustrating Cowboy fans with his inconsistent play. Nevertheless, the Broncos sung his praises when they signed him. They’ve received a slightly better performance from him this year, but Texans know he’s not deserving of the national attention. Everytime an announcer talks about Jevon Kearse, they mention his nickname: “The Freak.” Kearse may be a fine physical specimen, but his play isn’t fitting of a man of his stature and hype. Dwight Freeney rounds out our line. Freeney is certainly an important piece of Indy’s defense, often drawing double and triple teams in pass protection. However, he is completely ineffective against the run, a fact that’s often downplayed by announcers and commentators.

LB
Lavar Arrington
Napoleon Harris
Joey Porter

Napoleon Harris is the anchor of my defense on my Madden 07 team. The game certainly rates him very highly, as do many talking heads. What’s that, you say? Minnesota is ranked #1 against the run? Not because of Napoleon Harris. In fact, you could say that the MLB on this team is the weak spot. Joey Porter often gets a lot of press because he’s controversial. However, the perception seems to be that he is also a good player, which he is not. He is largely ineffective unless he is blitzing. A good blitzer does not a good linebacker make. Lavar Arrington, however, takes the cake. There have been numerous games in the last few years where Arrington has ended up with 0-2 tackles, yet he commanded a large contract in the offseason and seems to be a media favorite. Honestly, I would not want this individual playing linebacker on my favorite NFL Europe team.

DB
De’Angelo Hall
Quentin Jammer
Pacman Jones
Troy Polamalu
Charles Woodson

The AFC dominates our defensive backfield. Charles Woodson has long been perceived as an effective #1 corner, but nobody on the committee would take him for a #2. Troy Polamalu gets a lot of press for his ridiculous hair and hard hits, but he lacks the ability to cover a receiver one-on-one. Pacman Jones is a good returner, but hardly a #1 cornerback, contrary to perception. Quentin Jammer is often praised for his coverage skills, yet teams continue to pick on him in the red zone and on deep passes - effectively. Interestingly enough, De’Angelo Hall was labelled as an overrated Cornerback in this article. Anyone who refers to themself in the third person should be better at what they do than Hall is.

K
Mike Vanderjagt

I started calling Vanderjagt “Wide Right” after he kicked that ball into Canada during the playoff game against the Steelers last year. Since he’s been playing for the Cowboys, I’ve noticed a trend: No matter the situation, the Idiot Kicker’s kicks always end up right of center. Field goals either go wide right or sneak in on the right side, his kickoffs end up on the right side of the field (on the 10 yard line!), even the extra points end up on the right side of the goal. I don’t understand how you can kick for a living and not find a way to fix this. He’s completely unreliable, even from short distances, yet he continues to be lauded as “The NFL’s most accurate kicker.” This may be true statistically, but one cannot argue his overrated-ness. He is definitely not as valuable as advertised, evidenced by the Dallas Cowboys no longer needing his services.

The following two things come from the Beating a Dead Horse Department:

1 - Someone in the national media has finally woken up. Wait - Reggie Bush isn’t Michael Jordan? But he did so well against Fresno State and Arizona State…it was supposed to be a sure thing!

2 - The Red Sox have officially become the Yankees. Boston and New York should join together and form a super-team, so they can be the first ones to pay $85 million dollars to some 13 year-old in Belgium for exclusive draft rights in 2013.

The common link between the two issues I find myself writing about most often? You got it…sports teams and sportswriters overrate potential. I blame it on Lebron James, the one athlete of this generation to even come close to living up to the hype. The very moment he scored 25 points in his rookie debut, we should have seen it coming. All of a sudden everybody wants to jump on the next big athlete’s bandwagon. For as long as it’s been around, ESPN the Magazine has published an annual “Next” magazine, where a large majority of the ink is spent projecting which high schooler will be the next Michael Jordan, Walter Payton, or Albert Einstein. It had just gotten to be ridiculous when they got Lebron right, so it made sense that that would start a feeding frenzy. And this is what it has led to…Large-market teams willing to pay over $50 million dollars just to talk to somebody (By the way, this money doesn’t count toward the luxury tax, does it? Try to tell me that the Shared Revenue/Luxury Tax system works now…) and entire professional teams are ostracized in the media for picking the “wrong” player before a snap is even played. Five or so years ago, Tank McNamara spoofed the whole idea with a strip that portrayed a major shoe company executive approaching a pregnant woman with a large shoe contract for her unborn son. At the time, it seemed ridiculous. Now, the “experts” seem to be capable of determining how well a 14 year-old will perform in the professional sports arena with no room for error. Signing a fetus to a shoe contract now would seem to be prudent, as the young man’s stock can only rise. Get them while they’re cheap! It can only get worse if Reggie Bush can somehow right the ship and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gyroball is all Peter Gammons says it is. I’m personally rooting that they do, so that my wife and I can sign that Adidas contract in a couple of years.

I’m watching the UTEP-UAB game, and Jordan Palmer just made an amazing play. He dropped back to pass, felt the rush, broke two tackles, scrambled to his left (he’s right-handed) and completed a first down pass - on third down. Of course, the drive ended in a touchdown with a minute left to go in the first half. Yet the announcers for ESPN2 continued to debate the National Championship problem caused by the otherwise mediocre Rutgers Scarlet Knights. They didn’t even acknowledge the play. This has to be Reason #837 why I prefer professional football over its college counterpart: A great play was just shoved out of the way by controversy over the BCS - and the entire discussion had absolutely nothing to do with the game being shown! I was under the impression that I was watching a broadcast of a football game, not an opinion show about the Bogus College Sport. Soon, I will post about many of the reasons I see college football as inferior. Until then, be informed that a large portion of it has to do with the subjectivity of crowning a champion, and about how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer while we sit around and talk about the rich. That’s a metaphor - but it really happened.

I was playing for the seventh grade football team when I learned first-hand that the best team doesn’t always win. For the second game of the season, we played another small town team, and we were killing them. We were tackling harder, we were running the ball down their throats, and they couldn’t move the ball at all. There were a couple of breaks that just didn’t go our way. One of their players stripped the ball from our running back after he was already down, they ran back a kickoff, and kicked an onside kick at the end of the game and ran out the clock to seal the deal. Our coach was probably the maddest about the last one, because its apparently against the code of Jr. High coaches to run trick plays. Anyway, he gave us a speech about outplaying the other team but still being outscored, probably just to make us feel better. I took it to heart, however. I had played effectively on both sides of the ball, and I was upset most when the other team simply ran out the clock. We had won that game, but they got the W. Ever since then, my biggest complaint about the game of football has been the clock. As a matter of fact, I’ve never been a fan of the clock in any sport. It makes the winning team way too conservative. In my mind, if you’re not truly competing for the duration of the game, it’s a cheap win. This is one of many reasons that I prefer baseball. It’s never to a baseball team’s advantage to stop trying to score runs, or worse, for the losing team to let the other team score so they’ll actually have an opportunity at the end of the game. It’s also why I find college football’s overtime system to be far superior, and the current overtime format of hockey satisfying. Finally, it’s why I found myself getting mad at Sean Payton last week. The Saints actually kneeled the ball for the last two minutes in order to win the game. Why are we rewarding teams for being passive and not playing the game? I’m not really mad at Payton, though. He’s just coaching the game given the rules. I’m just bitter about the rules, because too many football games come down to [shudder] clock management. I know it will never change, and the NFL will never get rid of kickers, but this kind of play will never truly determine the best team, in my mind. Am I just a bitter person because I lost that game in seventh grade and had a losing record last week? Probably. But you know I have a point…

This week, the picks will be shorter. Two reasons: (A) my little rant above is enough space anyway, and (B) I need to get better about going with my instinct (see last week). So, here it is. Winners are in italics.

Last Week: 5-8 (.385)
Total: 62-25 (.713)

Carolina @ Cincinnati
Steve Smith is too good for a struggling Bengals team.

Detroit @ NY Jets
It’ll take more than one game for me to be sold on the Lions, especially on the road.

Green Bay @ Miami
I’m probably one of the few who still thinks Miami has a shot in that weak division.

Jacksonville @ Houston
With Indy looking vulnerable, the Jaguars have to be smelling blood.

New England @ Buffalo
I’ve been a believer in Losman before, and he’s made me look foolish. No more.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Only as long as Gruden doesn’t kneel the ball for a game-winning field goal - and he would never do that in a million years.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
No way Mike Vick gets it done against this defense.

San Diego @ Kansas City
Philip Rivers is going strong, and the Chiefs’ defense was exposed last week.

Denver @ Cleveland
It will only be a matter of time before somebody puts some points up on this defense, but the Browns aren’t the team to do it.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are hungover after last week’s collapse, but the Raiders are what the doctor ordered.

Minnesota @ Seattle
The addition (and good play) of Deion Branch has to make Seattle a Super Bowl favorite, if Shaun Alexander will ever come back.

Washington @ Indianapolis
McFarland gets his first test against Portis and the boys. Even if he fails, Peyton can beat the Redskins blindfolded.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Why all the Tiki Barber talk? To create a diversion from all of their other problems.

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 6, I’m 6-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland. W 13-3
Week 7: JACKSONVILLE, vs. Houston.

Generally, when I make my picks each week, I do my best to go with my instinct. I have found that overanalyzing a game can often make you miss the big picture. That’s why, when I got to this week’s games, I had a lot of trouble. There were only four or five games that I had a strong gut feel about, and that makes me nervous. Am I reading too much into Atlanta’s red zone stats? Is the fact that Detroit’s secondary horrible really enough for the Bills to win? This week was a lot tougher. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident that I can improve my record once again. You heard it here: 12-1. Which one will I get wrong? If I knew that, I wouldn’t get it wrong.

Last Week: 12-2 (.857)
Overall: 57-17 (.770)

Buffalo @ Detroit
What an ugly game to start off with. You think it’s easy to pick this game? Each team’s got an inconsistent quarterback. Both Kitna and Losman have been at the bottom and the top of their games at some point in this young season. Thus, I’m going with the quarterback who’s set up in the best position to win. Detroit’s secondary is horrible, so it’s got to be J.P. Losman and the Bills. Plus they’ve got Willis. Pick: Buffalo

Houston @ Dallas
It’s a shame that this game doesn’t happen more often. You might not think so now, but the next time these two meet, I believe the playing field will be more even. Don’t forget that Houston won its first game as a franchise against the ‘Boys. Not this week, though. Houston has a little bit of momentum and a bye week, but the Cowboys have Bill Parcells and something to prove. Pick: Dallas

Carolina @ Baltimore
Since I started writing this post, I have flip-flopped on this game twice. Part of me thinks that the loss of DeAngelo Williams really hurts the Panthers. The other part of me wants Steve McNair to fail so I can look really smart. Honestly, though, the Ravens have an awesome defense that can keep them in any game. Carolina’s defense is very good also, and should give McNair fits, but they will not be able to run and Jake Delhomme will struggle. Baltimore ekes it out at the end. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants @ Atlanta
Get ready for a shoot-out. Neither team has an outstanding defense, and both can light up the scoreboard, albeit in different ways. Atlanta’s rushing attack is potent as always, but getting rid of T.J. Duckett has, in my opinion, had more impact than people want to talk about. You want proof? The Falcons are last in the NFL in red zone offense. In a game where the two-minute drill is likely to make a difference, I’ll take Eli Manning over Mike Vick. Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee @ Washington
Which Washington team is going to show up? In my opinion, the one that beat Jacksonville. Why? Clinton Portis is getting better. More than that, though, they’re playing the Titans, an extremely young team that would probably be getting more notice as an extremely bad team if it weren’t for the Lions and the Raiders. Pick: Washington

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay
This one seems pretty simple. Aside from the game in New England, the Bengals have shown that they deserve their reputation as a team that could run up the score any given week – and they haven’t even gotten Chad Johnson really involved yet. I’m of the opinion that Bruce Gradkowski is actually an upgrade from Chris Simms, but Tampa Bay’s defense has been surprisingly inept thus far. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ St. Louis
St. Louis is quite possibly one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They don’t turn the ball overall, they’re balanced on offense, and their defense can shut teams down. Seattle will once again be without Shaun Alexander, which really hurts their chances. When the NFC West comes down to a difference of one or two games, this injury will prove to be one of great impact. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
At one point, I said something about not picking against the Saints in the Superdome this year. That rule worked out for me last week, when I wanted to pick the Bucs and didn’t. This week, though, I find it hard to pick against the red-hot Eagles, whom I believe to be in the top 5 in the league. Even if Westbrook doesn’t start (and who knows if he will?), Philly’s got the tools to overwhelm the Saints, even in the Superdome. Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego @ San Francisco
Philip Rivers’ coming-out party will continue this week. Expectations are continually being raised for the Chargers, and I see little chance of a let-down against an improving, but still mediocre team. Alex Smith still needs to prove himself to me. Pick: San Diego

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Damon Huard, not Dante Hall, is the X-Factor in this game. If he can continue to play out of his mind, he will send the defending champs to 1-4. Pittsburgh just looks bad right now, and it’s going to take a miracle to get out of that funk. And you know what? I’m loving it! My two younger brothers’ favorite teams (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) have a combined 1 win through Week 5, and it’s not looking like they’ll have any more next week. Pick: Kansas City

Miami @ NY Jets
These teams, on the whole, aren’t very good. The Jets played the Colts well, but don’t read too much into that, because so did the Titans. They promptly tanked against the Chiefs, proving that when they face a good defense, they can’t move the ball. For all the talk about Culpepper in Miami, people have missed that the Dolphins have a great defense that has actually kept them in games. With Harrington, I think they have a shot here. Pick: Miami

Oakland @ Denver
I’m not sure this needs an explanation. If Denver doesn’t win by at least 20, I will be sorely disappointed. Seriously. Pick: Denver

Chicago @ Arizona
This one seems pretty simple as well. Many are calling Chicago the most complete team in the NFL. I’m not worried about Chicago losing; what I want to know is: Will Daniael Manning get some credit during the stupid new MNF player intros? Will he get a pick? My answers are no and yes. Pick: Chicago

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 5, I’m 5-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland.

Sorry for my lack of an NHL preview post. As I started to do research, I realized that I know nothing about any team except for the Stars, and I don’t even know much about that. This weekend I’m in class, so maybe next week I’ll tackle the Stars and some more baseball stuff. For now, though, there are this week’s NFL picks.

Last Week’s Record: 11-3 (.786)
Overall: 45-15 (.667)

Buffalo @ Chicago
It’s simple: Buffalo is improving, and J.P. Losman is starting to look like a real quarterback. But Chicago looks really good, and it’s not going to be enough. Look for Grossman to play really well again. This stretch of really weak schedule is going to give this offense a lot of confidence, which can be dangerous in the post-season. Pick: Chicago

Cleveland @ Carolina
Carolina gets the benefit of facing Cleveland as a warm-up for the Ravens in Week 6. I picked up Charlie Frye for my fantasy team because he’s a fairly consistent quarterback statistically, but a borderline fantasy quarterback does not a good team make. I’m looking at this game to see how Carolina does so I can handicap next week’s game. They’ve looked good since the return of Steve Smith, and I want to know if it’s for real. Pick: Carolina

Detroit @ Minnesota
I’m not as high on Minnesota as a lot of people seem to be, but they’re still worlds better than the lowly Lions. Roy Williams has been very vocal this week, so experience says they will lose. The Brad Johnson love-fest will continue, at least for the MNF crew, but fans won’t be able to justify it for long. Pick: Minnesota

Miami @ New England
When I first looked at the season, I was convinced that this would be a key match-up that could potentially decide the AFC East. Now, it’s looking like this will be a blowout. Miami has a chance because there defense hasn’t been all that bad, and Tom Brady has no receivers, but Daunte and the boys don’t seem to have a shot. Pick: New England

St. Louis @ Green Bay
Here’s what you need to know about this match-up: St. Louis has eight interceptions (er, “gunslings”) through four games, and Brett Favre hasn’t lost his job yet. I don’t think it’s going to be too much longer before Aaron Rodgers gets his shot. If St. Louis can be effective with their run game, they should dominate the clock and the game. Pick: St. Louis

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Saints finish up their NFC South swing at home against the Bucs. At first glance, it’s easy to say that the Bucs will lose because they’ve got their back-up in. Please remember, though, that Chris Simms was the starter, and he was doing well. It’s obviously the system that’s working out for Tampa Bay quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Drew Brees is doing quite well, and the Saints will have a decided home field advantage. Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
I don’t think I know anybody who thinks Tennessee has a chance here. Vince Young, Kerry Collins, it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. Until somebody beats Indianapolis in a regular season game that matters (again, nobody has in the last 25 games), I will continue to pick them. Pick: Indianapolis

Washington @ NY Giants
The Giants have had two weeks to think about the load they dropped in Seattle. I don’t think it will be enough. Clinton Portis is getting his groove back, which opens up the field for Brunell. It’s tough for a team to come back after such a devastating loss, even after a bye week, and I can’t see Eli Manning pick up the team and carry them on his back. Pick: Washington

Kansas City @ Arizona
I’m not feeling Matt Leinart just yet. This game may be enough to prove the problem wasn’t Kurt Warner, but the offensive line. The Cardinals might give them a game, but they are going up against a very underrated defense. By the way, who would have thought that Damon Huard would do this well in place of Trent Green? Pick: Kansas City

NY Jets @ Jacksonville
Here are two teams on the rise that want to make a statement. Jacksonville had an impressive win against the Steelers two weeks ago, and New York almost pulled it off against Indy last week. This one should come down to the wire. I’m going with Jacksonville because of the home field advantage and questionable status of Laveranues Coles. Pick: Jacksonville

Oakland @ San Francisco
San Francisco is probably Oakland’s best chance to avoid the 0-16 season of ignominy that they seem to be destined for. San Francisco presents a relatively favorable match-up for the Raiders, but…it’s not going to happen. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas @ Philadelphia
A whole lot of ink has been wasted on T.O.’s return to Philly, creating a huge distraction from what ought to be a really good game between the top two teams in the NFC East. If distractions are a factor, I think they might bother Philly more. The entire team has to put up with this junk, and T.O. has always been able to handle criticism with a big game. All things being equal, I still think the Cowboys have an advantage. Westbrook isn’t going to be 100% (if he plays at all), and the Cowboys have what it takes to handle the Philly receivers. Pick: Dallas

Pittsburgh @ San Diego
I’ve gone back and forth on this game at least three times. These are great teams, but Roethlisberger has struggled, and Rivers hasn’t been tested. It’s tough to go against Cowher, because I don’t think Pittsburgh is a 1-3 team, but I believe that San Diego has the tools to take them out unless Big Ben plays out of his mind. Pick: San Diego

Baltimore @ Denver
It’s time for me to give Steve McNair some credit. Last week, I picked San Diego to win because I didn’t think McNair could get it done. Well, he did. I was wrong. Okay, now that we’ve got that out of the way, I don’t think McNair will get it done this week against the Broncos. The offensive line is way too suspect, and they haven’t been able to get the run game going. The defense is still very good, but not invincible. This team reminds me a lot of last year’s Bears. If the offense can score more than 14 points, they’ve got the win. Denver had a bye week to get ready, and you can bet that Mike Shanahan will try to control the clock and exploit some over-pursuit by the Ravens to wear them out in the thin air. Plummer has an anomalous game and the Broncos come out on top. Pick: Denver

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 4, I’m 4-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland.

This week I am starting what will hopefully become a Thursday tradition on this site by revealing my picks for this week’s NFL games. I don’t mess around with the spread, just who’s going to win. If it goes well, and my brothers don’t use this information against me in our Pick ‘Em league (which I am already dominating), it will become a weekly feature. Enjoy the picks, and let me know what you think.

Last Week: 13-1 (.929)
Through Week 3: 34-12 (.739)

Arizona @ Atlanta
This game is a case of two teams that are reeling. Arizona had all kinds of unreasonable expectations placed upon them before the season started, and they had a really tough loss this week. Kurt Warner’s play has caused a quarterback controversy, and Denny Green apparently doesn’t have any idea about how to handle it. Atlanta’s got it’s own problems. They were really set up to fail last Monday – and they did. It wasn’t just fate on the Saints side though; Vick and the boys contributed to their own demise. Vick has been characteristically inconsistent, and when the running game can’t pick them up, it’s game over. I really believe that the Falcons will be able to bounce back from a tough week better than the inexperienced Cardinals can. Pick: Atlanta

Dallas @ Tennessee
Another game, another quarterback controversy. The fact is that the Titans don’t have much chance of beating anybody right now, regardless of who’s under center. Kerry Collins gives them the best chance of winning right now, but not against the Cowboys, distractions aside. On a related note, I cannot believe the conclusions that the media was ready to jump to on Wednesday. When did news reporting agencies become rumor mills? Go to the primary source! Enough soapbox, on to the next game. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis @ New York Jets
Eric Mangini has done great things with the Jets, and Chad Pennington is playing out of his mind, but I have a rule: Don’t bet against the Colts during the regular season in a game that counts unless they give you a reason not to do so. In their last 24 games that mattered for standings or playoff seeding, Indianapolis has won all 24. They’re clicking on all cylinders, and the Jets aren’t going to be a team that can stand in their way. Pick: Indianapolis

Miami @ Houston
I could have sworn to you that Miami would have busted out last week. Several national columnists ripped Culpepper before the Dolphins took on the Titans, so I fully expected Daunte and the boys to come out and make a statement. Instead, they barely got past the hapless Titans. On the other side, I think it’s great for the Texans that they have a new coach. If Capers had called out the team in the media, it would have been same-old, same-old. Maybe with some new blood the veterans will start to pay attention. It may not seem like it, but I really think Houston is on the way up. So what happens when a bad team that is on the way up hosts a mediocre team that is on the way down? That’s right – upset. Pick: Houston

Minnesota @ Buffalo
There’s no doubt that Minnesota played Chicago, a very good team, well last week. What I do doubt is the MNF crew’s blind faith in Brad Johnson. Yes, he’s a solid veteran. He still doesn’t have anybody to throw to. I’m not exactly a J.P. Losman disciple, but the Bills did put up 475 total yards on the Jets last week. If they can hang on to the ball, they should prevail at home. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans @ Carolina
I can’t believe that the Saints are the only undefeated team in the NFC South. I had some serious doubts going into the season about Drew Brees in New Orleans, but he’s proven himself. I have to say this, because I’m so biased against Reggie Bush it makes me sick to listen to any of the talking heads worship him: Stop saying that he’s doing a great job! He’s averaging 41.7 yards/game on the ground. I could elaborate for several paragraphs; lucky for you I’m using discretion here. Now, about Carolina: I still can’t figure them out. Steve Smith’s mere presence on the field makes them infinitely better. New Orleans has been great, but playing defense against Charlie Frye, Brett Favre with no receivers, and Mike Vick is way different that playing defense against Jake Delhomme with a healthy Steve Smith on one side and Keyshawn on the other. Pick: Carolina

San Diego @ Baltimore
This is seriously the second-hardest game for me to pick this week. San Diego hasn’t had to do anything but run the ball to win, but Steve McNair hasn’t exactly been brilliant either. Both defenses match up really well against the other teams’ strengths. I’m going to attempt to take the easy way out and go with the team coming off the bye. San Diego’s extra week of rest may not exactly be crucial at this point in the season, but they do have one thing going for them: Baltimore only has two games of tape. Nobody, including the Ravens and maybe even the Chargers, knows what Philip Rivers can do. McNair’s been around for years, and Schottenheimer is great at schemes. Go with the bye! Pick: San Diego

San Francisco @ Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs used to be the Phoenix Suns of the NFL – lots of scoring, absolutely no defense. With Herm Edwards in charge and a new defense, that mentality is a thing of the past. No longer does the team have to rely entirely on the offense, which is a good thing when you have to start your backup quarterback. Damon Huard has been fairly solid, and he has the added benefit of handing the ball off to Larry Johnson. It’s tempting to go with the 49ers, a much improved team, as an upset, but key injuries and the fact that this game will be at Arrowhead makes the Chiefs too much of an obstacle. Pick: Chiefs

Detroit @ St. Louis
The Lions should no doubt be doing better than they have been so far this season. The key? I think it’s Kevin Jones. Detroit’s inability to run has put way too much pressure on Jon Kitna and the defense. St. Louis’ Front Four, on the other hand, has proven itself worthy of the all the hype. The Rams seem poised to take this one, but the offense must start converting in the red zone. Look for a rude homecoming welcome for Mike Martz this week. Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland @ Oakland
These are the games you hate to get stuck watching on Sunday: two pictures of football ineptitude facing off in what can only be a huge mess. This one will probably come down to who makes the least mistakes, and I can’t really think of a good reason to pick either team to win. I’m going to follow my instinct and go with the Browns, who played Baltimore close, over the Raiders, who haven’t played anybody close. Pick: Browns

Jacksonville @ Washington
The Jaguars have been on a rollercoaster. They handled the defending Super Bowl champions on Monday Night Football, only to get beaten by the division rival Colts again. On the positive side, it took a great special teams play for the Colts to pull it off, so the Jags should really feel good about themselves. Washington’s also feeling pretty good after putting away the Texans with Mark Brunell’s record-breaking performance. Both teams have something to prove and expectations to fill, so this should be a good one to watch. Washington should have a slight edge as the home team, but I think people still underrate Jacksonville. They are on the verge of being mentioned with the elite teams of the league, and it seems that they’ve figured out how to play those teams well. On the other hand, Washington is the kind of team that will beat the teams it is supposed to and maybe give the others a fight. I like Washington this year, but not against Jacksonville just yet. Pick: Jacksonville

New England @ Cincinnati
A good portion of Marvin Lewis’ week has been spent dealing with discipline problems, which is never good for a team. For an elite-status team, though, a DUI on a player that was suspended anyway shouldn’t have that much of an effect in a Week 4 game. Because of their success in recent years and even more recent vulnerability on both sides of the ball, New England seems like a team that other teams gear up to play for to make a statement. This makes their schedule that much harder, and I can’t see Cincinnati letting this one get away at home. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ Chicago
Here it is: The battle for NFC supremacy. Chicago started its season by beating each of its division foes, and Seattle, despite an ugly first week, proved that it still belongs up at the top of the conference. Both teams are riding a lot of momentum; Chicago from a 4th quarter turnover and subsequent improbable drive led by Rex Grossman, and Seattle from dropping 35 in the first half against the Giants. The defenses will undoubtedly play prominently, and there will be plenty of excitement from start to finish. I was inclined to pick Seattle until it came out that Shaun Alexander would not be playing. If Rex Grossman can remain confident and take care of his business, the Bears defense should be able to stop Seattle’s one-dimensional offense. Pick: Chicago

Green Bay @ Philadelphia
I have been surprised by the efficiency Philadelphia has played with on the offensive side of the ball thus far. They will face a weak and inexperienced Green Bay defense, and that will be the difference. Brett Favre looked great last week, and that’s good for him. I don’t expect him to be smiling and jumping up and down on a consistent basis, however. Philadelphia will play well under that Monday Night Lights. Pick: Philadelphia

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 3, I’m 3-0. Here’s the rundown:

Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10.
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee.