Just for Sport

Well, we’re down to the final four. Three of the teams left are teams I’ve been cheering for this year, and the other one is one I can’t stand. One of these teams will be the Super Bowl champion, and I think I will vomit if it is the Patriots. This is a tough week for picking winners, as most Championship weeks are. There’s so much build-up this time around, especially in the AFC. It will be fun to find out if both games can live up to their billing. Let’s start in the NFC.

Bears-Saints
I’ve been rooting for both teams this year, for very different reasons. ACU’s own Danieal Manning has been doing a great job in his rookie season starting at Free Safety for the Bears. One article I read at the beginning of the season (I’d link to it, but the article is no longer free) called him “a promising young player that covers like a cornerback and hits like a linebacker.” What an endorsement. I’ve also been cheering for the Saints because of the Katrina factor. When I was in the New Orleans area this summer, the fact that the team was coming back at all was a source of excitement. Nobody expected they’d do this well. Ultimately, I’d like the Saints to win because I think America needs to continue to hear stories from Hurricane Katrina. I think they will get it done. In a shootout, which is a possibility, the Bears won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. I’m not sure how high each team will go, but the Saints win by two field goals. Look for Drew Brees to frustrate Brian Urlacher.

Colts-Patriots
I’m scared about this weekend, for three reasons: (1) If the Colts can’t pull it off now, can they ever? (2) Earlier in the postseason, the Colts performed well partly because they felt they were underdogs. Now it might be tempting for them to come out and think that they deserve it. (3) Recent history aside, I’m still worried about the run defense. Having said that, I’m still confident. Even if Rodney Harrison is able to play, the Patriots’ secondary is still very beatable. I’m feeling a rant coming. If you don’t want to read it, skip the next paragraph.

It’s always driven me nuts that Tom Brady gets all the credit for the success of the Patriots. Weren’t they the team that chose to be introduced all together at the Super Bowl? Yet, when Adam Vinatieri or the Patriots defense win a game for the Patriots (or the ref calls a “tuck rule” or John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds or Donovan McNabb throws up on the final drive), Brady gets praised. “His” playoff record is 12-1. After last week’s game, which was horrible, Scott Van Pelt was moved to say, “In the end, Tom Brady was just better.” The Chargers missed a field goal! Sean Salisbury, who has always slurped up to Brady said, “This game shows why Tom Brady is the most clutch quarterback in playoff history.” Are you kidding me? Read what I wrote last week, and tell me if I was right.

In any case, I’m taking the Colts. It will be close for a half, but the Colts O will come out and put it away sometime in the early fourth quarter, making the RCA Dome a rockin’ place. All of this will set up…

Super Bowl XLI: Colts-Saints
Inevitably, this game would come to be known as “The Archie Manning Bowl.” So much publicity would surround the Manning family even I would get tired of it. Media circus aside, this would be a great game. Both teams, if they won this week, would come in with all kinds of momentum. Both offenses would have field days. Most importantly, both teams would really, truly feel like they needed the win. What a dream match-up.

The following two things come from the Beating a Dead Horse Department:

1 - Someone in the national media has finally woken up. Wait - Reggie Bush isn’t Michael Jordan? But he did so well against Fresno State and Arizona State…it was supposed to be a sure thing!

2 - The Red Sox have officially become the Yankees. Boston and New York should join together and form a super-team, so they can be the first ones to pay $85 million dollars to some 13 year-old in Belgium for exclusive draft rights in 2013.

The common link between the two issues I find myself writing about most often? You got it…sports teams and sportswriters overrate potential. I blame it on Lebron James, the one athlete of this generation to even come close to living up to the hype. The very moment he scored 25 points in his rookie debut, we should have seen it coming. All of a sudden everybody wants to jump on the next big athlete’s bandwagon. For as long as it’s been around, ESPN the Magazine has published an annual “Next” magazine, where a large majority of the ink is spent projecting which high schooler will be the next Michael Jordan, Walter Payton, or Albert Einstein. It had just gotten to be ridiculous when they got Lebron right, so it made sense that that would start a feeding frenzy. And this is what it has led to…Large-market teams willing to pay over $50 million dollars just to talk to somebody (By the way, this money doesn’t count toward the luxury tax, does it? Try to tell me that the Shared Revenue/Luxury Tax system works now…) and entire professional teams are ostracized in the media for picking the “wrong” player before a snap is even played. Five or so years ago, Tank McNamara spoofed the whole idea with a strip that portrayed a major shoe company executive approaching a pregnant woman with a large shoe contract for her unborn son. At the time, it seemed ridiculous. Now, the “experts” seem to be capable of determining how well a 14 year-old will perform in the professional sports arena with no room for error. Signing a fetus to a shoe contract now would seem to be prudent, as the young man’s stock can only rise. Get them while they’re cheap! It can only get worse if Reggie Bush can somehow right the ship and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gyroball is all Peter Gammons says it is. I’m personally rooting that they do, so that my wife and I can sign that Adidas contract in a couple of years.

I was playing for the seventh grade football team when I learned first-hand that the best team doesn’t always win. For the second game of the season, we played another small town team, and we were killing them. We were tackling harder, we were running the ball down their throats, and they couldn’t move the ball at all. There were a couple of breaks that just didn’t go our way. One of their players stripped the ball from our running back after he was already down, they ran back a kickoff, and kicked an onside kick at the end of the game and ran out the clock to seal the deal. Our coach was probably the maddest about the last one, because its apparently against the code of Jr. High coaches to run trick plays. Anyway, he gave us a speech about outplaying the other team but still being outscored, probably just to make us feel better. I took it to heart, however. I had played effectively on both sides of the ball, and I was upset most when the other team simply ran out the clock. We had won that game, but they got the W. Ever since then, my biggest complaint about the game of football has been the clock. As a matter of fact, I’ve never been a fan of the clock in any sport. It makes the winning team way too conservative. In my mind, if you’re not truly competing for the duration of the game, it’s a cheap win. This is one of many reasons that I prefer baseball. It’s never to a baseball team’s advantage to stop trying to score runs, or worse, for the losing team to let the other team score so they’ll actually have an opportunity at the end of the game. It’s also why I find college football’s overtime system to be far superior, and the current overtime format of hockey satisfying. Finally, it’s why I found myself getting mad at Sean Payton last week. The Saints actually kneeled the ball for the last two minutes in order to win the game. Why are we rewarding teams for being passive and not playing the game? I’m not really mad at Payton, though. He’s just coaching the game given the rules. I’m just bitter about the rules, because too many football games come down to [shudder] clock management. I know it will never change, and the NFL will never get rid of kickers, but this kind of play will never truly determine the best team, in my mind. Am I just a bitter person because I lost that game in seventh grade and had a losing record last week? Probably. But you know I have a point…

This week, the picks will be shorter. Two reasons: (A) my little rant above is enough space anyway, and (B) I need to get better about going with my instinct (see last week). So, here it is. Winners are in italics.

Last Week: 5-8 (.385)
Total: 62-25 (.713)

Carolina @ Cincinnati
Steve Smith is too good for a struggling Bengals team.

Detroit @ NY Jets
It’ll take more than one game for me to be sold on the Lions, especially on the road.

Green Bay @ Miami
I’m probably one of the few who still thinks Miami has a shot in that weak division.

Jacksonville @ Houston
With Indy looking vulnerable, the Jaguars have to be smelling blood.

New England @ Buffalo
I’ve been a believer in Losman before, and he’s made me look foolish. No more.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Only as long as Gruden doesn’t kneel the ball for a game-winning field goal - and he would never do that in a million years.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
No way Mike Vick gets it done against this defense.

San Diego @ Kansas City
Philip Rivers is going strong, and the Chiefs’ defense was exposed last week.

Denver @ Cleveland
It will only be a matter of time before somebody puts some points up on this defense, but the Browns aren’t the team to do it.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are hungover after last week’s collapse, but the Raiders are what the doctor ordered.

Minnesota @ Seattle
The addition (and good play) of Deion Branch has to make Seattle a Super Bowl favorite, if Shaun Alexander will ever come back.

Washington @ Indianapolis
McFarland gets his first test against Portis and the boys. Even if he fails, Peyton can beat the Redskins blindfolded.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Why all the Tiki Barber talk? To create a diversion from all of their other problems.

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 6, I’m 6-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland. W 13-3
Week 7: JACKSONVILLE, vs. Houston.

1. Everybody has an agenda, including Barry himself, about Barry Bonds.

I usually have a Tuesday night class, so tonight was the first time I was able to catch “Bonds on Bonds.” I wasn’t impressed. There are two things you have to say when talking about this show: (1) like any controversial issue, everybody, myself included, has a preconceived notion about it. More on this below. (2) Barry Bonds has complete creative control over the project, which means that every single second, from Barry comparing himself to Mohammed Ali to Mark Grace sticking up for an old friend, has been through the spin cycle. It’s like the SportsCenter commercial where Dwyane Wade gets to edit his own highlights. “Can we add a couple more defenders in right here and make it look better?” I have to admit that I turned on the show expecting to be cynical because I have already convicted Bonds in my mind. The fact that he is trying to cover up and suck up to the media and the fans after years of being a jerk makes it that much worse. To some extent this isn’t fair. I have certainly made my share of missteps, and it would be completely justifiable for some people to get on a blog and rip into me. The difference is that I haven’t betrayed the trust of a nation. There’s a scene in “The Great Gatsby” where Jay Gatsby introduces Nick Carraway to Meyer Wolfsheim, the gambler who fixed the 1919 World Series. Carraway narrates the following reaction:

The idea staggered me. I remembered, of course, that the World Series had been fixed in 1919, but if I had thought of it at all I would have thought of it as a thing that merely happened, the end of some inevitable chain. It never occured to me that one man could start to play with the faith of fifty million people - with the single-mindedness of a burglar blowing a safe.
“How did he happen to do that?” I asked after a minute.
“He just saw the opportunity.”

I’m about two-thirds of the way through “Game of Shadows,” and though Fainawaru-Wada and Williams have a pile of hard, incriminating facts, it’s evident that there’s a touch of bias as well. There’s nothing wrong with that; we all have it. I guess I’m just trying to say that I’m not sure what to do about Barry Bonds just yet, but I am convinced that it’s important. I do know that you can’t trust “Bonds on Bonds” at face value though, and that’s my point at the moment.

2. The Houston Texans made the right choice by taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush.

Tonight ESPN aired a draft wrap-up show, and the talking heads had Texans owner Bob McNair on to ask him some pointed questions. First of all, let me say that anybody who is aware of the media circus surrounding the NFL draft knows that any team that passed on Reggie Bush was begging to be crucified. (self-plug: I told you so.) That’s why I admire the pick of Mario Williams even more. McNair made three legitimate points about why they did what they did: (1) Last year, the Texans led at halftime 8 times (4 times going into the 4th quarter), and they lost every single one of those games. That’s not the offense’s fault; it’s the defense’s. They already have a 1,000 yard rusher in Domanick Davis; if Reggie even gets close to the hype and gets 1,500 it still wouldn’t have made a difference. The Texans need a playmaker on defense, not a guy who might be an upgrade over the one they already have. (2) The rest of the NFL has figured out that the way to beat Peyton Manning is to put pressure on him. Just ask the Steelers. The Texans have to play the Colts twice every year, and this pick gives them a legitimate chance to compete on the same field. (3) Barry Sanders only won one playoff game. To this day, the Detroit Lions continue to draft offense, and it hasn’t helped them yet. In the NFL, you have to be able to play on both sides of the ball. Ron Jaworski disputes this fact, but Jaworski has evidently forgotten two things: (1) he’s not dealing with his Arena team, where players play both ways, and (2) he has continually ripped the Indianapolis Colts for being all offense and no defense. For all of the talking heads, I have a prediction of my own: 2006 is the year that fans stop taking the “draft experts” seriously because Reggie Bush will be a big-time bust, and New Orleans will continue to be irrelevant.

3. Kobe Bryant is way over-hyped.

Today I sat around with some people and talked, in a positive manner, about Kobe Bryant. For those of you who know me and the people I associate with, this should be a surprise. I have never liked him, and it’s not just because he’s a veteran or has swagger. The main knock on Kobe has always been that he’s selfish. Whether or not you believe that he ran Shaq out of Los Angeles, it is an irrefutable fact that he hoists up way too many shots every game. Recently, however, he has been getting his teammates involved, which is an even bigger accomplishment when you consider his teammates. One of the talking heads on ESPN recently called him “the Mariano Rivera of basketball,” implying that he has an exceptional ability to close games. This is ironic if you consider that espn.com recently ran an article about clutch shooting. Much has been made of the Nike commercial where Michael Jordan states that he has let his teammates down 24 times. The fact is, Kobe has done the same thing many more times than that. In fact, with less than 24 seconds left and his team down by three points or less, Kobe has one of the lowest shooting percentages in the NBA. In a recent poll, 58.4% of fans said that Kobe had been the top performer of the first round of the playoffs. However, on the same page, there’s a link to a page that shows each player’s Player Efficiency Rating, or PER. PER is a statistic developed by John Hollinger to measure each player’s per-minute performance. 15.0 is supposed to be the standard average. For the 2004-05 season, Bryant finished a respectable 8th in PER with a 23.28. However, in this year’s playoffs, he is 39th with a 16.52, less than half of first-place Dirk Nowitzki’s 33.69. Supposed “slouch” teammate Lamar Odom is ranked 22nd with a 19.5. The only way the Lakers will continue to win is if Kobe continues the surprising trend of being a member of a team and doesn’t jack up 35 shots a game. Otherwise, the Los Angeles Kobes will lose to the team that plays in the Staples Center.