For the first time in my memory, two teams that I have followed closely will meet in the Super Bowl. Since I know both teams fairly well, I thought it might be fun to do a position-by-position comparison before the big game. For those of you who haven’t made your decision on the winner yet, this might be helpful. In a couple of days, I will post what I see as keys to the game for both teams, and a day or two after that I will make several predictions, one of which will be the winner of the game. Let’s get started with the most important position on the field…
QB
P. Manning
Grossman
The last time the Bears were in the Super Bowl, the opposing quarterback was Tony Eason, who isn’t exactly Peyton Manning. Manning, whose playoff shortcomings have been well-documented (and exaggerated), is capable of beating any defense. Of course, the Monsters of the Midway were able to make Drew Brees look foolish, and it’s possible they could do that to Peyton, too. The way to get to Manning is to effectively blitz and frustrate him early with takeaways. The Bears are capable of both, but Peyton looked pretty unflappable against his long-time nemesis last week. In Chicago, the question will always be, “Good Rex or Bad Rex?” The Bears defense is good enough that they can get by most opponents without needing a big game from their quarterback, but this is the Super Bowl. Yes, Trent Dilfer won one with the Ravens, but they were also playing against Kerry Collins, Jim Fassell, and the rest of the Giants. The key for Rex has always been getting the run game established. This is very doable against the Colts, but if they can stop the run and the defensive ends start flying around, it could be a long game for Rex. This is one of the more bipolar QB combos in recent Super Bowl memory. If there ends up being a noticeable difference between these two on February 4, it will be because Peyton will know the Bears defense much better than Rex knows the Colts defense.
RB
Addai/Rhodes
Jones/Benson
Despite opposition from their respective fan bases, each of these teams has stubbornly stuck to their platoon of runners. Both have obviously been successful. This is a growing trend in the NFL, and I won’t be surprised if almost every team is doing something similar in years to come. I think that most fans of the Colts (including myself) believe Joseph Addai should be the guy, but Dominic Rhodes has proven to be a good change of pace when Addai needs rest. The same thing applies to Jones and Benson. These two platoons are going up against two different run defenses, though, and it will be interesting to see how the running game gets used. In the Championship game, the Colts used the running game to grind out the clock in the middle of their comeback and keep the Patriots defense on the field. The Bears have a better run defense that New England, so that strategy may not be on the table. On the other side, Lovie may try to open up the game with a heavy run attack to see which Colts defense has shown up.
FB
Mungro
McKie
Both of these fullbacks are great blocking backs who have been utilized by their teams in the passing game. Either can be used to keep the defense honest, and one of them will probably be a target in the red zone. If you had to bet on which one would be used more, I would take Mungro, simply because he’s been utilized on a more consistent basis. Lovie might have a hard time trusting McKie with the ball in such an important game, but you never know when a defense is going to overlook somebody.
TE
Dallas Clark
Desmond Clark
The two Clarks (no relation) are two of the best tight ends in the league. Dallas has been criticized recently for his willingness to stay in and block, but unjustifiably so. He is often one of the most important people on the field for the Colts, namely when they run the stretch play. Desmond is also very important to his team, for much the same reasons. What’s intriguing is that Dallas is generally more of a nimble guy, while Desmond is just a hulking presence. Both will probably be utilized quite a bit, especially early. Desmond will be called upon to take on Bob Sanders, while Dallas will try to get one of the safeties in single coverage.
WR1
Harrison
Muhammad
Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. To compare him with Muhsin Muhammad is ridiculous. I haven’t made my pick yet (honestly), but when you line up the positions and compare them and find that most are pretty equal, the following positions jump out: QB and WR. That’s pretty dangerous if you’re a Bears fan. Still, Muhammad is capable of production, and you can’t totally write him off.
WR2
Wayne
Berrian
Reggie Wayne is probably the best number two receiver in the league. In fact, you could stick him on the Chicago Bears, and he would probably be number one. What’s amazing about both Harrison and Wayne is that they are quite willing to give up touches for the sake of the team. The reality is that by playing unselfishly, they both benefit. Wayne will probably line up against Nathan Vasher, which is as much of a mismatch that you will find in this game.
WR3
Moorehead
Davis
The one thing lacking for the Colts offense this year has been a solid number three guy. Moorehead is one of those guys who was supposed to be really good by now, but hasn’t quite broken in. He shows flashes of brilliance, but he’s not exactly the model of consistency. Davis, on the other hand, is a viable option for Rex Grossman. He will likely line up opposite Marlin Jackson, a terribly underrated player, so both of the third receivers figure to have to work very hard to make any kind of difference in this game.
OL
Glenn/Lilja/Saturday/Scott/Diem
Tait/Brown/Kreutz/Garza/Miller
Here’s a fact: You must have an outstanding offensive line to make the Super Bowl. This year’s teams provide no exception. I know little to none about the offensive line, but I know that based on reputation, Jeff Saturday and Olin Kreutz are the two best centers in the league. Both lines are outstanding in run and pass protection, and both will need to be this week.
DT
McFarland/Brock
Harris/Idonije
I know I’ve been praising Bob Sanders for boosting Indy’s defense, but Anthony McFarland is probably the best thing that happened to the Colts this year. He came in mid-stream and picked up on his old coach’s system in time to do what a defensive tackle needs to do in the Cover 2 – clog up the middle. There hasn’t been anybody capable of that job in Indy in the Tony Dungy era. The Bears, on the other hand, used to rely on Tank Johnson, who is under “house arrest,” but can somehow attend the game in Miami. Idonije and some other guys have been rotating through and done a very good job. I wonder if he’s seen an offensive line like the Colts’.
DE
Freeney/Mathis
Ogunleye/Brown
Not long ago, I listed Dwight Freeney on the NFL All-Overrated team. Why? Because he doesn’t stop the run. That doesn’t mean that he’s not a great pass rusher. He’s fast, and for some reason, tackles don’t seem to know how to handle his spin move. Ogunleye, however, is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He can get down the field and put pressure on the quarterback, but he can also pursue the run like most ends can’t.
LB
Morris/Brackett/June
Hillenmeyer/Urlacher/Briggs
The Chicago Bears have the best linebacker corps in the league. You can take the Ravens, I want the Bears. Ray Lewis is nasty, but so is Brian Urlacher. He can pursue sideline to sideline, and on the next play he will be double-covering a tight end with Danieal Manning or Todd Johnson. Urlacher is the single biggest obstacle to the Colts hoisting the Lombardi trophy, and he is the sole reason I still can’t decide who I’m going to pick. In other news, the much-maligned Rob Morris is actually part of the solution to Indy’s most recent defensive woes after being switched to starter in the playoffs.
CB
Harper/David
Tillman/Vasher
Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher get a lot of press – much more than Nick Harper or Jason David. I’m not sure Harper was in the national consciousness until his wife famously stabbed him the night before the Steelers game and Nick infamously didn’t cut outside on Ben Roethlisberger during that game. Still, he’s a very good corner. I understand the hype that Tillman gets, but I don’t quite get Nathan Vasher. If you remember, neither one of these guys could cover Steve Smith in last year’s playoffs, and if you ask me, Vasher hasn’t been the same since. Usually one of the other members of the secondary bails him out, or you would see a little more about him in the Chicago media and perhaps a little less about Rex Grossman.
SS
Bethea
Johnson
Andres Bethea has matured as the season progresses. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have often tried to pick on him, only to pay for it. He will have his hands full with the physical specimen that is Desmond Clark, but he seemed able to keep Todd Heap in check for the most part. Todd Johnson, however, had trouble with Jerramy Stevens in the Seattle game. Look for Peyton to go to Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht.
FS
Sanders
D. Manning
I have used this space to laud Bob Sanders for the impact he has had on the Colts run defense, but last Sunday, he proved that he is a boost to the pass defense as well. For my Dallas fans, I like to say that Sanders is Roy Williams, except that he can cover. Manning has also done a superb job this year. He made an impact early on in the season and has helped his team win a few close games. Playing for Chicago has allowed him to take calculated risks, most of which have paid off. He is a factor in the turnover game, and could play a major role.
Nickelback
Jackson
R. Manning, Jr.
Ricky Manning, Jr. was an adequate corner for Carolina last year, but has really flourished in his new role with his new team. The outstanding play of the rest of the secondary has allowed him to be in position for key interceptions throughout the year. Marlin Jackson received some attention last week for his fourth quarter pick of Tom Brady, which was the first time most people had heard of him. Actually, Jackson was drafted last year in the first round to help plug the holes in Indy’s soft defense. His presence has helped the Colts have one of the top passing defenses in the league. Both of these DBs are very effective and will help their respective defense in passing situations. If there are a lot of punts and field goals in this year’s Super Bowl, it will be because these guys were effective in shutting down multiple receiver sets on third down.
K
Vinatieri
Gould
Adam Vinatieri is certainly a very good kicker, but Robbie Gould is just about as good. Both can hit field goals from 45+ on a fairly consistent basis, and both are effective at locating kickoffs deep. When it comes down to a crucial situation at the end of a game, I’d feel better having Vinatieri out there, but that doesn’t mean that Gould couldn’t get it done, too.
P
Smith
Maynard
Let’s go with pure stats on this one. Hunter Smith punted 47 times in 2006 for a 44.4 average, with a long of 61. He was blocked once, had 5 touchbacks (10.6%), and 14 inside the 20 (29.8%). His net punting average was 35.3. Brad Maynard punted 77 times (much larger sample) in 2006 for a 44.2 average, with a long of 65. He was not blocked, had 7 touchbacks (9.1%), and 24 inside the 20 (31.2%). His net punting average was 37.6. Smith was not forced to make any tackles for his team this year, while Maynard was put in that situation three times. I couldn’t find any stats for this, but it doesn’t seem like either team gave up a punt return this year. Slight edge goes to Maynard for punting skills, although Chicago was forced to punt 1.63 times more than Indianapolis (almost an entire standard deviation, if I remember my statistics right).
On an unrelated note, I maintain that the best position to play in the National Football League would be punter. If you were to take the consensus best punter and consensus worst punter in the league (Can’t think of whom that might be? Point made.) and compared their statistics side by side, they wouldn’t be that different. They don’t have to deal with game ending situations like kickers do, and they maintain anonymity. I watched several Bears games this season and I still had to look up the punter’s name, regardless of the fact that he appeared 77 times.
KR/PR
Wilkins
Hester
To paraphrase that Bears radio announcer, Devin Hester is ridiculous. I don’t see Dungy giving him much of a chance. Lovie has no reason not to kick to Wilkins, but he has the capability of being a game-changer. Hester was drafted by the Bears in the hopes that he would be an effective returner, which makes this a good time to point out that both teams in Super Bowl XLI had very good drafts this year (and last year), coming up with guys who were able to have a significant impact right away. There’s no getting around it; teams must draft well (and not just early in the first round) to be successful in the NFL. By the way, if the Bears end up having to rely on Hester’s services in pass coverage, the Colts will have no problem putting six points on the board almost every drive. When he had to play nickel back for the suspended Ricky Manning, Jr. against St. Louis in Week 14, the Rams exploited the mismatch every time he was on the field.
There it is. Let me know if you disagree or if I have left anything out. Come back in a couple of days for more Super Bowl.
- Are they for real? As long as Young stays on the sideline, apparently.