Just for Sport

Readers of this blog know that I cheer for many teams, but two teams are closer to me than any others: the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs. What follows is a pre-Spring Training preview of the 2007 season for the Rangers. I chose to do them first because I have tickets to the home opener at Ameriquest Field, so I am already excited and counting down the days (43!). Soon I will post a similarly formatted preview for the Cubs. As always feel free to agree or disagree with any and all assertions in the comments.

Five Things to Watch for in Spring Training

1. Will Eric Gagne be healthy?
If he is, the Rangers will have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Even without Gagne, Texas has guys like Kameron Loe and John Rheinecker that would be shoo-ins on other teams, but will have to fight for their spot on the 25-man roster this year. That can only be good.
2. Will the Rangers obtain a reliable backup catcher?
Some people within the Rangers organization are apparently slightly concerned about Miguel Ojeda as a backup. So am I. In my mind, the Rangers need to somehow acquire someone with some good solid experience that can step in and handle the staff. Catcher is by far the weakest link on this team.
3. What will Sammy look like, and how will it affect the Outfielder/DH situation?
I know that I’m biased as a Cubs fan, but I don’t like the Sosa deal. Everything Ron Washington was brought in for, Sammy is not. He’s not a good clubhouse presence, and he’s an attention-mongerer. Remember A-Rod? I worry about how the clubhouse leaders (still very young guys) will respond to Sammy’s presence. If he does make the club, one of the young, talented outfielders (probably Jason Botts) will have to spend even more time in Oklahoma City. Either Sosa needs to be out of this world amazing or he needs to go away.
4. Will the relaxed clubhouse atmosphere really result in more wins?
We’ll see this spring just how loose the guys seem. The problem with Buck is that many of the players got off to slow starts in previous years because there was an adjustment period. With a couple of key guys (Millwood, Teixeira) being notorious slow starters anyway, maybe a dose of Ron Washington can help this team pick up some wins in April and May so they won’t be out of it in September.
5. Who will be at the back end of the rotation?
Right now Robinson Tejeda is penciled in as the 4th starter (home opener!), but his spot is not exactly secure. The following guys (and possibly some more) will be competing for the final two spots: Josh Rupe, Kameron Loe, John Koronka, Edinson Volquez, and Bruce Chen. Will any of these guys step up and have an amazing spring, or will this season leave Rangers fans wishing for the days of a four-man rotation?

Evaluating Arrivals and Departures

Frank Cattalanotto
I didn’t really like Cat the first time around, but this time there’s a little more depth. When he gets injured this year, at least there will be somebody to step in for him.

Bruce Chen
When they first signed Chen, I thought he was the fifth starter. Now it looks as if he’ll be competing for a spot, and that’s good.

Eric Gagne
A healthy Eric Gagne makes the Rangers the favorites in the AL West. An unhealthy one means they could be fighting for their lives down the stretch.

Kenny Lofton
This was probably my favorite pick-up of the off-season. I know that he’s getting old, but Lofton is a reliable lead-off guy, and all he does is win. He provides invaluable veteran leadership that the team will need down the stretch. Gary Matthews, Jr. apologists will find themselves pleasantly surprised.

Brandon McCarthy
Last year, I was excited to have a legit third starter in Adam Eaton. He ended pitching well in maybe four games all year. If the pitching staff is to be improved, it’s right here with McCarthy.

Sammy Sosa
I don’t like it…right now. I’ll probably like it if Sammy can actually hit a few home runs steroid and cork free. As it stands right now, Sosa, who will be baseball’s all-time Strikeout King very soon, will be joining Brad “Swing-And-A-Miss” Wilkerson in the outfield. For the love of God, Ron, please don’t start those two on the same day. Ever.

Rod Barajas
It hurts to lose a guy like Barajas who can hit and handle pitchers. Laird has been groomed for the starting job, but now there is a lack of depth.

John Danks
I don’t know what to think about this. It seems like the team turned down very good trade offers for him, only to settle for McCarthy later on. Either way, this is one of those trades that will either make us look like geniuses or dimwits.

Mark DeRosa
His presence will certainly be missed. Daniels seemed to underrate him a little bit and let him get away, and I’m not sure that you can survive a 162 game schedule without a reliable utility infielder.

Adam Eaton
Good riddance. Go be injured for whatever other team you now play for.

Gary Matthews, Jr.
I hope for the Rangers’ sake that he was a one season wonder, because he could end up hurting us as part of the Angels. The one positive to come out of letting him go is the acquisition of Kenny Lofton.

Overall Impressions
Rotation
The pitching rotation will always be a question in Arlington as long as they don’t do anything about that crazy wind tunnel. Jon Daniels has plenty of guys competing for a job, but there is still a lack of big names.

Bullpen
As I stated before, this bullpen has the potential to be the best in the majors. They had an off year last year, so history says that they’re due.

Infield
Teixeira and Young are among the best of their respective positions. Blalock has shown flashes of brilliance. If Kinsler can avoid the sophomore slump, they should be solid. There will be major problems if any of them are injured, as Joaquin Arias seems to be the best choice for a backup. If I were Daniels, I’d wait and see what Gagne did. If he was all right, I’d dangle Akinori Otsuka, a proven closer, out on the market for a reliable catcher and a good infielder with a bat. Don’t settle for just anything, either, Jon, and for goodness’ sake, don’t get rid of Blalock.

Outfield
As long as I’m pretending to be high-ranking members of the Rangers organization, if I were Ron Washington, I’d run Cattalanotto, Lofton, and Nelson Cruz out into the field as many days out of the year as I could, and I would use Jason Botts as a DH. Sosa and Wilkerson would sit on the bench, or better yet, play in Oklahoma City. Of course, you never know who’s going to get injured or come to Spring Training twenty pounds too heavy, so how well this outfield will perform is anybody’s guess.

Prediction
The presence of Ron Washington, some veteran leadership from Kenny Lofton, and enough depth for Jon Daniels to pull a good deadline deal make for an improved Texas Rangers team. Wash is supposedly going to turn Blalock into a god at third base again, and Teixeira is talking like last year’s crawling start is out of the realm of possibility. The rotation looks to be stronger, too, which will always help. Last year’s team was 80-82, so I see them in the 88-92 win range, enough to win the division over a weaker A’s team, the geriatric Angels, and the inferior Mariners.

By the way, remember how I was going to start using my own team nicknames, TMQ-style? I would like to introduce the AL West to you: Texas Chuck Norrisses, Oakland Circus Elephants (from the logo of the late 80s/early 90s), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of America, and Seattle Compasses (also from an early 90s logo). More teams to follow.

Every year, there is a short time (this year, it’s 12 days) which I refer to as the Sports Black Hole - it is the time between the Super Bowl and The Day when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. During this Black Hole period, hockey and, to a lesser extent, basketball tide me over. Perhaps, then, this is the best time for me to write a bit about each. First, though, I want to mention the thing that is helping me cope with the Black Hole this year - umpiring.

On February 5th, the day after the Super Bowl, I stepped behind the plate for the first time and called balls and strikes. I also took my position in the field and performed umpiring duties there. It was a fairly uneventful game. I got to call a play at the plate. My strike zone was a little too small for the hometown fans, but it was consistent. We did blow a call or two. There was an infield fly that went uncalled, and a ball that should have been called foul was called fair. Nevertheless, the game went on. I am looking forward to a year (and hopefully more) of umpiring. I am proud to take this role in America’s Pasttime.

As for hockey, I have this to say: Sportswriters and television commentators need to grow up. Most of them speak as if they have been personally slighted by the NHL. Hockey? We don’t cover that inferior sport. These people are paid to cover sports, yet they only cover the ones they enjoy personally. Unfortunately, I have not been able to see as much hockey as I would like this year, although I did attend my first NHL game in October. It seems as if the NHL is committing suicide by allowing the majority of their games to be broadcast on a crappy network that’s apparently too good to be broadcast on satellite.

Having said that, this season has been an exciting one. For Stars fans, it has been frustrating. I was at the game where Steve Ott broke his leg, and that seemed to set off a steady stream of injuries that have crippled the Stars all season. Add an inconsistent Marty Turco to the equation, and it makes me more nervous as we approach the end of the season. I had all kinds of optimism going into last year’s playoffs, and it all got squelched in the first round. I don’t know if I can handle another collapse. Stay tuned…

As for basketball, I’d like to get everything I have to say about the regular season (both pro and college) in one post. So, here are my mid-February Final Four picks. As always, you never know who’s going to end up in what region, so I tried my best to come up with four teams that are fairly spread apart. I’ve got two fairly obvious picks and two underdogs, listed here in alphabetical order:

Florida
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Texas A&M

In the pros, I see only six legitimate contenders for a Finals berth: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago. If you forced me to pick right now, I would say Dallas vs. Detroit, although anything can happen in the West. I’ll probably have more to say when the regular season is up, but not until then.

On Friday, watch for a preview of both the Rangers and the Cubs.

TSN reported yesterday that the NHL is considering realigning its teams. The league, which is currently in a six division format, is thinking about switching to just four divisions. The six division format has always been doomed from its inception. At least it’s an even number, but not when you crown division champions and are stuck with the problem of deciding which teams face each other, etc. It’s better in hockey than it is in baseball, though, because Western Conference teams face Eastern Conference teams all the time.

Baseball, ironically enough, reacted to its four division “problem” by switching to a six division format, then switching Milwaukee from one league to another. It was a simple enough solution: even number of teams in each league, and nobody even cares about Milwaukee anyway, right? Well, except for the commissioner. Anyway, the American League now has 14 teams, and the National League has 16. Why not round it out? The NCAA tournament starts with 64 teams, not 62.

It’s time for baseball to take a clue from the NFL: We need four divisions in each league, with an equal amount of teams. This would provide more competitive balance, a simpler schedule, and possibly more playoff teams. I’ll admit that I’m biased on this topic because I have a vested interest in the two divisions (AL West and NL Central) that have an abnormal amount of teams. In an age where the schedule makers are concerned about balance of schedule, the schedule is very unbalanced for the ten teams (1/3 of the league) in these two divisions.

In order to divide the teams into eight divisions of four teams each, two more teams are required. Both would have to be in the AL, unless the Brewers were to move back over (not advised). Before I talk about where the new teams should be located, let’s talk about the realignment of the National League, because we know where all those teams are. My proposed plan takes into account mostly geography, but also does its best not to split up truly historical rivalries – recent ones don’t count as much because they’re mostly based on recent success, which is pretty spotty when you’re trying to set up a system that should last for a while.

NL North
Chicago
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis

NL South
Atlanta
Arizona
Houston
Florida

NL West
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

NL East
New York
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Washington

This method ensures that each team resides in a division that is actually descriptive of their location. The South division is probably most problematic, because it is large in scope and a hodgepodge of all three current divisions. At least the problem of the Pirates in the Central division is solved. Travel issues for each team are improved or at least the same, with the possible exception of the Diamondbacks. Rivalries such as LA-San Fran and Chicago-St. Louis are preserved.

Before we realign the American League, we must first address the issue of expansion. What cities should get the new teams? Here are the candidates.

Locations that were in contention for the Expos franchise: Arlington (Va.), Las Vegas, Monterrey (Mexico), Norfolk (Va.), Portland

Locations that have professional teams other than baseball: Buffalo, Calgary, Charlotte, Columbus, Edmonton, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Long Island (Uniondale), Memphis, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey (East Rutherford), New Orleans, Oklahoma City (kind of), Orlando, Ottawa, Portland, Raleigh-Durham, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Jose, Vancouver

Other locations that might be capable of supporting a pro team: Albuquerque, Anchorage, Austin, Birmingham, Boise, Honolulu, Little Rock, Louisville, Omaha, San Juan, Tulsa, probably a bunch of Canadian cities (forgive me if I’ve forgotten any…if they’re not already on this overly extensive list, it ain’t happening)

Let’s assume, for the sake of my sanity, that new teams would be picked based solely on their geographical location in order to make realignment easier. Here’s what the American League might look like:

AL North
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Minnesota

AL South
Kansas City
Tampa Bay
Texas
New Team A, perhaps New Orleans or Nashville

AL West
Anaheim
Oakland
Seattle
New Team B, perhaps Portland or Las Vegas

AL East
Baltimore
Boston
New York
Toronto

Once again, travel is made easier for almost every team, again with the possible exception of Tampa Bay and Texas. Of course, Texas is no longer in a West Coast-only division, and Tampa Bay isn’t always going North, so it makes more sense nevertheless. Friends that I have proposed this system to maintain that my bias for Texas led to the considerably weak AL South, but these teams do not have to be perennially bad. A few years ago, the North division would have been considered very weak as well. Again, historic rivalries are preserved, for the most part.

Possible Problems
Any time the league is expanded (let alone realigned), the integrity of the game is called into question. One has to consider schedule expansion, although this is highly unlikely.
Nevertheless, the introduction of more teams means that the talent pool is going to be watered down a bit, calling statistics into question in an era where they are already on very shaky ground. However, these questions always end up being temporal. It is much more important to have an equality between the leagues, especially if so much emphasis is being placed on a “balanced schedule.” How can the schedule be balanced if the numbers are wrong?

The playoff question, in my mind, is the biggest obstacle to a realignment. Right now four teams from each league make it, meaning under a new system there would be no wild card. One thing I appreciate about the current playoff system is that only good teams make the playoffs. To be sure, some very good teams are often left out, but at least half the league doesn’t make it in, a la NBA or NHL. The reality is, though, that the player’s association has actually been pushing to let more teams in. Last year, they proposed a system where ultimately eight teams make it in, but there’s a play-in round. Certainly this and other proposals would have to be considered if MLB wanted to continue allowing Wild Card teams to make the playoffs. In my mind, whatever they came up with would be worth the switch to an eight division format – as long as they keep the playoff pool relatively shallow. I still want end of season pennant races to mean something.

There are several other logistic problems inherent with expansion. Ownership groups would have to be assembled, stadiums would have to built (I withdraw my nomination of New Orleans if they use the Superdome), minor league affiliations would have to be made, etc. It’s clear that such a system couldn’t happen overnight. But Mr. Selig is clearly on his way out. The new commissioner could start things off on the right foot by announcing a five-year or seven-year plan to expand and realign baseball, for the better integrity of the game.

Got a different plan for realignment, or an improved playoff system? Don’t think baseball should be realigned? Want to lobby for a specific city to get a team? Post a comment!

A few days ago, I posted about overrated football players. Today, we visit the world of baseball. Again, this work was done by a committee of five (and sometimes four). (Note: There will not be posts about basketball or hockey. Only one of our number knows enough about hockey to say anything valuable, and you could fill up four or five rosters of overrated players in the NBA.) We ended up with a five-man rotation, three closers, three catchers, five outfielders, two managers, and two each of the rest of the positions. There was much more contention involved in the creation of this team than in the NFL version. Many lively debates broke out, and several compromises were made. The same basic rules applied here. This time I’m not going to try to explain why we picked every single player, just provide commentary where it is warranted. Watch the comments, I’ll have at least a couple about picks that I disagree with.

SP
John Lackey
Chan Ho Park
Jeff Weaver
David Wells
Jaret Wright

Perhaps as residents of Abilene, Texas, we are biased, but John Lackey is overrated around here. Locals talk about him as if he were the second coming. The man has had one really good start, and it happened to be in Game 7 of the World Series. Otherwise, he’s a thug.

Closers
Francisco Cordero
Jason Isringhausen
Brad Lidge

One of the funniest things about my recent visit to Minute Maid Park was the 12 year old kid behind me yelling for “Lights Out Lidge!” only to see him blow something like his third save in a week - against the Diamondbacks.

C
Mike Piazza
2/3 of the Molina Family

Mike Piazza gets credit for playing the catcher position, but it’s more like he takes up space back there. He’s a one-dimensional player, simple as that. Which 2/3, you ask? That’s up to you to decide.

1B
Jason Giambi
Richie Sexson

The fact that Giambi won an MVP is a joke.

2B
Marcus Giles
Jeff Kent

We’re just not a fan of the ’stache.

3B
Adrian Beltre
Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is certainly a good player, but not, as some might say, the best active player. Not at all.

SS
Bobby Crosby
Derek Jeter

This was by far the most crowded position. We settled on probably the worst player ever to be listed as a preseason pick for MVP (Crosby) and on Mr. Overrated himself.

OF
Johnny Damon
J.D. Drew
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Juan Pierre

We wanted six outfielders, but couldn’t get past seven. So, we simply cut the weakest two. What we got is a pretty good list of overrated players, perhaps captained by Jim Edmonds, the biggest flopper in baseball if such a thing can exist.

Manager
Dusty Baker
Lou Piniella

I cringed when I realized that our picks were the last two managers of the Cubs. We couldn’t believe it this offseason when Lou Piniella emerged as the consensus best manager available. Here’s how you tell: My friends made fun of me when they found out the Cubs had hired Piniella.

Yes, I included Mark McGwire. No, I did not include Jose Canseco. Maybe I am too sentimental, and that’s why I have Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy. At least I have Gwynn and Ripken, who appear to be the only consensus guys this year. I am prepared to back up each of my picks. Here they are:

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Orel Hershiser
Tommy John
Wally Joyner
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Cal Ripken Jr.

The following two things come from the Beating a Dead Horse Department:

1 - Someone in the national media has finally woken up. Wait - Reggie Bush isn’t Michael Jordan? But he did so well against Fresno State and Arizona State…it was supposed to be a sure thing!

2 - The Red Sox have officially become the Yankees. Boston and New York should join together and form a super-team, so they can be the first ones to pay $85 million dollars to some 13 year-old in Belgium for exclusive draft rights in 2013.

The common link between the two issues I find myself writing about most often? You got it…sports teams and sportswriters overrate potential. I blame it on Lebron James, the one athlete of this generation to even come close to living up to the hype. The very moment he scored 25 points in his rookie debut, we should have seen it coming. All of a sudden everybody wants to jump on the next big athlete’s bandwagon. For as long as it’s been around, ESPN the Magazine has published an annual “Next” magazine, where a large majority of the ink is spent projecting which high schooler will be the next Michael Jordan, Walter Payton, or Albert Einstein. It had just gotten to be ridiculous when they got Lebron right, so it made sense that that would start a feeding frenzy. And this is what it has led to…Large-market teams willing to pay over $50 million dollars just to talk to somebody (By the way, this money doesn’t count toward the luxury tax, does it? Try to tell me that the Shared Revenue/Luxury Tax system works now…) and entire professional teams are ostracized in the media for picking the “wrong” player before a snap is even played. Five or so years ago, Tank McNamara spoofed the whole idea with a strip that portrayed a major shoe company executive approaching a pregnant woman with a large shoe contract for her unborn son. At the time, it seemed ridiculous. Now, the “experts” seem to be capable of determining how well a 14 year-old will perform in the professional sports arena with no room for error. Signing a fetus to a shoe contract now would seem to be prudent, as the young man’s stock can only rise. Get them while they’re cheap! It can only get worse if Reggie Bush can somehow right the ship and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gyroball is all Peter Gammons says it is. I’m personally rooting that they do, so that my wife and I can sign that Adidas contract in a couple of years.

Note: Sorry to those of you who have commented in the past. I didn’t realize that all comments were going to moderation mode. Comments you make should show up now.

For as long as I can remember I’ve been a baseball bigamist. I claim both the Chicago Cubs and the Texas Rangers as “my team.” I’ve explained this to more people than I can count, but I’ll do it again here. When I was growing up at home, I would always watch the Cubs on WGN during the day. I loved listening to Harry Caray, especially when he did the seventh inning stretch. There were players I liked: Ryne Sandberg, because of the hard-nosed way he always played second base; and Mark Grace, because I had his rookie card and he seemed like a good player to support. Of course, there’s Wrigley Field, the greatest sports venue in the country. A lot of my friends think I believe that because I’m a Cubs fan - really, I’m a Cubs fan because I love Wrigley Field. There’s the old-time scoreboard that’s so prominent in center field, ivy grows on the fences, and people watch the games from the rooftops. That’s probably the biggest factor - the Cubs could be one of the worst teams in baseball (and in the early 90’s this was never far from the truth) and the ballpark would be packed. People would show up for the experience of the game - when they sang “Take Me Out to the Ballgame,” they meant it. You have to understand that in the early 90’s in North Texas, I lived among a bunch of bandwagon Cowboy fans, so a team with such a strong following appealed to me.

There was also the Rangers. I learned about baseball from watching the Rangers with my Dad. We would sit on the couch and watch the game, and he would tell me what a hit-and-run was and why the pitcher had a rosin bag. We kept score, even if we were watching from home. In my scorebook many important events were immortalized, including a grand slam by Pete Incaviglia that was probably one of the most clutch hits in Rangers history (not a lot to choose from, I know). My first Major League game was at Arlington Stadium. The Rangers played the Oakland Athletics. Bobby Witt was pitching, and we lost. I remember cheering for Nolan Ryan to come in from the bullpen, believing it could actually happen.

That’s probably a little too much sidetrack. The point is supposed to be for me to point out that in the 2006 offseason, the Cubs and Rangers are going two opposite directions, starting their respective managerial hires. The Cubs organization is somehow deluded into thinking that grabbing the biggest name on the market is going to make them a winner. Getting Dusty Baker out of there was the right move - I’ll never forgive him for pitching Prior and Wood over 200 innings each in 2003 - but Lou Piniella isn’t the direction we need to be going. Maybe this team needs a little fire, but I think it needs somebody who can manage in the National League more than that. Also, we need a lead-off hitter and a bullpen.

I have some optimism for the 2007 Rangers. If we can somehow convince Matthews to come back and land one or two more pitchers (Matsuzaka, please!), we’re going to be okay. The more I hear about Ron Washington, the better. First off, I like the idea of taking people away from the Athletics. But this article makes me do backflips. You mean guys like Barry Zito, Jermaine Dye, and Torii Hunter are talking about the Texas Rangers because of our new manager?!?! Jon Daniels is even cooler than I thought! Maybe the Rangers could become the Tigers of the 04-05 offseason: all of the good free agents collectively decide to join one team because of its potential for growth. Hey, Jason Schmidt, we’ve got Barry Zito and the best infield in baseball. You want in on this?

Anyway, this offseason is a crazy one for me. I read that both of my teams put in bids for Matsuzaka, so unlike most fans, I’ve got about a 2-in-7 chance that my team will land him, rather than a 1-in-7 chance. Things are looking up for both teams (honestly, how can it get any worse than last year for the Cubs?). It would help if they would stop making useless trades with each other. Nevin for Hairston? Stop torturing me.

Okay, before I go, some input is required. I’m thinking about pulling a TMQ and nicknaming all of the sports teams I write about based on their mascot, team logo, collective persona, or other trait. My idea for the Rangers is: Texas Chuck Norrises. Perhaps the Cubs could be Windy City/B - until they win the World Series, in which they could be Windy City/A. Thoughts?

Let’s dispense with the pleasantries; on to the predictions.

American League

Both of my AL picks are gone, including my World Series pick. This is a curse, in that I was wrong, but it is also a blessing, because I get to start over. So what did we learn from the ALDS’s (What’s the correct grammar here?)? I’ve got 5 observations:

1 – Minnesota and Oakland both have horrible stadiums. Both teams share with their respective football team, which is good for neither sport. The Metrodome is much more adaptable than McAfee Stadium at masking that fact, except for the walls that are made out of blue Saran Wrap. By contrast, the Tigers and the Yankees showdown featured two excellent stadiums.

2 – A-Rod was horrible, but so was the rest of the Yankee line-up, a fact which has left many questioning the leadership of the team. Many are pointing to Torre, but I think the responsibility falls on Derek Jeter. Maybe at one point, he was a good captain, but now I see him as a guy who thinks he’s untouchable by the media – and unfortunately, he is. He’s had a nonchalant attitude throughout the postseason, as if there’s nothing to worry about until the World Series. Just because you’re the Yankees doesn’t mean you get a free pass through the playoffs.

3 – Jeremy Bonderman was amazing in a pennant-clinching win for the Detroit Tigers. I never, ever thought I would write that sentence. You think it’s easy to predict what’s going to happen in a 162-game season and subsequent playoffs? That’s why you play the games.

4 – Moneyball finally won something. Actually, Frank Thomas, who is the anti-Moneyball, won something for an otherwise mediocre team. Billy Beane should send the White Sox a thank you card for treating Thomas like crap.

5 – I really should have paid attention to the abominable finish the Twins had to the regular season. I didn’t put much stock into the momentum factor when I made my prediction, a cardinal sin. It turns out that getting swept by the Devil Rays at the end of the season means you will probably get swept by a playoff team next. By the way, have you ever seen a more sorrowful home run trot than Justin Morneau’s in the 9th inning of Game 3? What a shame for him to make that error after an MVP type season.

So who advances to the World Series? It’s easy to justify either team. The Athletics were able to defeat Santana, the proven veteran, and Liriano, the rookie phenom, so why couldn’t they also beat Rogers and Verlander? On the other hand, the Tigers pitching shut down what many were calling “the greatest lineup ever assembled” rather handily. I believe the Tigers advance because of five (really four) factors: (1) Jim Leyland. (2) Curtis Granderson. (3) Comerica Park vs. McAfee Stadium. (4) A’s lack of a third pitcher.

National League

My two teams advanced, so I suppose that I am bound by my previous picks. This isn’t such a bad thing, but I’m a little uneasy. The Mets are still a very good team, but without Pedro, El Duque, and possibly now Cliff Floyd, it’s looking like the Cardinals might get a free pass. But first, what did we learn?

1 – Is there a bigger joke in the Major Leagues than the NL West? I was impressed that they got two teams into the postseason, but did either team have a shot? Neither one looked like they had played a big game all season long.

2 – Chris Young was the lone bright spot for the Padres, who really looked horrible against a team with no momentum. Young is going to win a Cy Young one day, especially if he can stay in San Diego and pitch at Petco Park.

3 – Speaking of individual performances, what about Albert Pujols? If he continues to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them through postseason after postseason, he will be considered one of the all-time greats.

4 – Every season, it seems that one team grabs the label of “Team of Destiny” and decides to own it. This season’s team is the Mets. Our pitchers are injured? We’ll just win. Everybody’s talking about the other team in our town? We’ll just win. Willie Randolph has this team playing to its full potential.

5 – Everybody on the Dodgers seemed to act like they didn’t belong in the playoffs. Even the fans had an air about them that said, “We really made it? What now?” There was one point in the last game when Grady Little went out to the mound, and the stadium went deathly silent. Everybody was waiting for something to get screwed up, and when you play afraid, you lose.

I picked the Mets, and I’m sticking to it. The Cardinals still have Pujols, but the Mets have a team, and that will be the difference. In my opinion, it’s not going to matter, since the National League is so much weaker than the American League on the whole. In the middle of the season, I decided that the Mets would be the only team that had a chance against an AL team. Once again, with their losses it won’t be a very competitive series. So you can see where my new World Series pick is going…Tigers over Mets. See you in a week or two.

It’s an amazing time for the sports fan. The NFL is at the quarter pole, hockey starts tomorrow, and the baseball playoffs get underway today. Also, there are several specific issues to address: Dusty Baker, Albert Haynesworth, and Tiger Woods. Did I mention that basketball’s not on the radar yet (and that’s a good thing)? I’m just kidding…sort of. I’ll try my best to have several posts over the next couple of days; lots of predictions, some recaps, and plenty of commentary. This post: MLB playoffs preview. I’ll look at the first round match-ups, and then predict winners all the way to the Series. I plan on posting between every round. Picks are in bold.

2006 First Round Match-ups

American League

Minnesota (96-66) vs. Oakland (93-69)

Let me put it simply: I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon that says that Oakland cannot win in the playoffs. They have no line-up, except for Frank Thomas, and one pitcher. Minnesota, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the league. They definitely have the pitching to get it done in the playoffs, they’re defensively sound, and they’re getting production from nearly every position.

Detroit (95-67) vs. New York (97-65)
Detroit had a very strong showing at the beginning of the season, but their recent slump hurts them. Additionally, their bullpen just won’t be enough. I’m not sold on Todd Jones. I just don’t think what the Tigers can come up with will be able to compete with the Yankees, who have few weaknesses. If a New York starter not named Wang can step up consistently and they get some help from the middle relief, it will be hard to stop them.

National League

San Diego (88-74) vs. St. Louis (83-78)
St. Louis comes into this thing in bad shape. They are reeling from that near-historic collapse, and their window of opportunity seems to be closing. This year’s surprise, San Diego, benefited from some strong trades this year, and that pitching staff could carry them. But, as long as St. Louis has Pujols, the window of opportunity is open. The Padre staff will have a lot to overcome here.

Los Angeles (88-74) vs. New York (97-65)
This is tough. The Mets blew away the rest of the National League this year, but news that Pedro’s out for the playoffs really hurts their chances. The Dodgers are riding a ton of second-half momentum and have tons of playoff experience. I feel like the winner of this series is going to take the pennant. In a short series, I’ll go with the talent.

Championship Series
AL
Minnesota over New York
NL
New York over St. Louis

World Series
Minnesota over New York

As the title might suggest, I hate getting wrapped up in all of the New York-Boston hoopla. Let’s face it - the rivalry is overrated, and while I have been well-documented in my hatred of the Yankees, I have never subscribed to the school that says if you hate the Yankees, you must cheer for the Sox. The Red Sox have turned into the Yankees, and I honestly don’t see how a card-carrying Yankee hater can root for them. Nevertheless, whenever the two teams get together, I generally root for the lesser of the two evils. Today, though, I’m (gasp) rooting for the Yankees.

Why? Because of David Freakin’ Ortiz. I’m sick of sportswriters (especially ones that write for a company based in New England) writing things like, “Anybody who’s watched a Red Sox game this year knows who the MVP is.” Let me tell you, watching Boston play doesn’t really define MVP for me, unless you’re talking about Jason Varitek, the one player who can spark that team. An MVP doesn’t throw his team under the bus by saying, “Come hit in this line-up and see what kind of numbers you get.” So the rest of the team doesn’t do it for you? What about Manny, your best friend, who has hit behind you all year? The Red Sox have such a ridiculous payroll; it’s absurd to insinuate that the rest of the line-up isn’t up to snuff. Maybe Ortiz should switch places with Jermaine Dye or Magglio Ordonez or Frank Thomas and see what his statistics look like. I know one statistic that would stay the same: .000, as in Fielding Percentage.

Any part-time player that would be rendered useless by switching leagues doesn’t even deserve consideration for Most Valuable Player. A player is only valuable as long as he is on the field. Anybody who takes the field helps his team for 27 outs, plus however many at-bats he gets, plus however many hits/walk the other team gets. If every team averages 9 hits/walks per game (a very conservative estimate), then a full-time player is on the field for 40 of the game’s 72 plate appearances. A DH is “on the field” (Consider this: if a designated hitter doesn’t reach base in a game, he will never have set foot inside the foul lines) for 4 of those 72 plate appearances.

Maybe David Ortiz should spend all the time he spends on the bench considering a different method for winning the MVP he apparently wants so much: stop complaining about reporters and other players and pick up your glove.