Just for Sport

Let’s dispense with the pleasantries; on to the predictions.

American League

Both of my AL picks are gone, including my World Series pick. This is a curse, in that I was wrong, but it is also a blessing, because I get to start over. So what did we learn from the ALDS’s (What’s the correct grammar here?)? I’ve got 5 observations:

1 – Minnesota and Oakland both have horrible stadiums. Both teams share with their respective football team, which is good for neither sport. The Metrodome is much more adaptable than McAfee Stadium at masking that fact, except for the walls that are made out of blue Saran Wrap. By contrast, the Tigers and the Yankees showdown featured two excellent stadiums.

2 – A-Rod was horrible, but so was the rest of the Yankee line-up, a fact which has left many questioning the leadership of the team. Many are pointing to Torre, but I think the responsibility falls on Derek Jeter. Maybe at one point, he was a good captain, but now I see him as a guy who thinks he’s untouchable by the media – and unfortunately, he is. He’s had a nonchalant attitude throughout the postseason, as if there’s nothing to worry about until the World Series. Just because you’re the Yankees doesn’t mean you get a free pass through the playoffs.

3 – Jeremy Bonderman was amazing in a pennant-clinching win for the Detroit Tigers. I never, ever thought I would write that sentence. You think it’s easy to predict what’s going to happen in a 162-game season and subsequent playoffs? That’s why you play the games.

4 – Moneyball finally won something. Actually, Frank Thomas, who is the anti-Moneyball, won something for an otherwise mediocre team. Billy Beane should send the White Sox a thank you card for treating Thomas like crap.

5 – I really should have paid attention to the abominable finish the Twins had to the regular season. I didn’t put much stock into the momentum factor when I made my prediction, a cardinal sin. It turns out that getting swept by the Devil Rays at the end of the season means you will probably get swept by a playoff team next. By the way, have you ever seen a more sorrowful home run trot than Justin Morneau’s in the 9th inning of Game 3? What a shame for him to make that error after an MVP type season.

So who advances to the World Series? It’s easy to justify either team. The Athletics were able to defeat Santana, the proven veteran, and Liriano, the rookie phenom, so why couldn’t they also beat Rogers and Verlander? On the other hand, the Tigers pitching shut down what many were calling “the greatest lineup ever assembled” rather handily. I believe the Tigers advance because of five (really four) factors: (1) Jim Leyland. (2) Curtis Granderson. (3) Comerica Park vs. McAfee Stadium. (4) A’s lack of a third pitcher.

National League

My two teams advanced, so I suppose that I am bound by my previous picks. This isn’t such a bad thing, but I’m a little uneasy. The Mets are still a very good team, but without Pedro, El Duque, and possibly now Cliff Floyd, it’s looking like the Cardinals might get a free pass. But first, what did we learn?

1 – Is there a bigger joke in the Major Leagues than the NL West? I was impressed that they got two teams into the postseason, but did either team have a shot? Neither one looked like they had played a big game all season long.

2 – Chris Young was the lone bright spot for the Padres, who really looked horrible against a team with no momentum. Young is going to win a Cy Young one day, especially if he can stay in San Diego and pitch at Petco Park.

3 – Speaking of individual performances, what about Albert Pujols? If he continues to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them through postseason after postseason, he will be considered one of the all-time greats.

4 – Every season, it seems that one team grabs the label of “Team of Destiny” and decides to own it. This season’s team is the Mets. Our pitchers are injured? We’ll just win. Everybody’s talking about the other team in our town? We’ll just win. Willie Randolph has this team playing to its full potential.

5 – Everybody on the Dodgers seemed to act like they didn’t belong in the playoffs. Even the fans had an air about them that said, “We really made it? What now?” There was one point in the last game when Grady Little went out to the mound, and the stadium went deathly silent. Everybody was waiting for something to get screwed up, and when you play afraid, you lose.

I picked the Mets, and I’m sticking to it. The Cardinals still have Pujols, but the Mets have a team, and that will be the difference. In my opinion, it’s not going to matter, since the National League is so much weaker than the American League on the whole. In the middle of the season, I decided that the Mets would be the only team that had a chance against an AL team. Once again, with their losses it won’t be a very competitive series. So you can see where my new World Series pick is going…Tigers over Mets. See you in a week or two.

It’s an amazing time for the sports fan. The NFL is at the quarter pole, hockey starts tomorrow, and the baseball playoffs get underway today. Also, there are several specific issues to address: Dusty Baker, Albert Haynesworth, and Tiger Woods. Did I mention that basketball’s not on the radar yet (and that’s a good thing)? I’m just kidding…sort of. I’ll try my best to have several posts over the next couple of days; lots of predictions, some recaps, and plenty of commentary. This post: MLB playoffs preview. I’ll look at the first round match-ups, and then predict winners all the way to the Series. I plan on posting between every round. Picks are in bold.

2006 First Round Match-ups

American League

Minnesota (96-66) vs. Oakland (93-69)

Let me put it simply: I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon that says that Oakland cannot win in the playoffs. They have no line-up, except for Frank Thomas, and one pitcher. Minnesota, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the league. They definitely have the pitching to get it done in the playoffs, they’re defensively sound, and they’re getting production from nearly every position.

Detroit (95-67) vs. New York (97-65)
Detroit had a very strong showing at the beginning of the season, but their recent slump hurts them. Additionally, their bullpen just won’t be enough. I’m not sold on Todd Jones. I just don’t think what the Tigers can come up with will be able to compete with the Yankees, who have few weaknesses. If a New York starter not named Wang can step up consistently and they get some help from the middle relief, it will be hard to stop them.

National League

San Diego (88-74) vs. St. Louis (83-78)
St. Louis comes into this thing in bad shape. They are reeling from that near-historic collapse, and their window of opportunity seems to be closing. This year’s surprise, San Diego, benefited from some strong trades this year, and that pitching staff could carry them. But, as long as St. Louis has Pujols, the window of opportunity is open. The Padre staff will have a lot to overcome here.

Los Angeles (88-74) vs. New York (97-65)
This is tough. The Mets blew away the rest of the National League this year, but news that Pedro’s out for the playoffs really hurts their chances. The Dodgers are riding a ton of second-half momentum and have tons of playoff experience. I feel like the winner of this series is going to take the pennant. In a short series, I’ll go with the talent.

Championship Series
AL
Minnesota over New York
NL
New York over St. Louis

World Series
Minnesota over New York