Just for Sport

Note: This post originally appeared on April 2, 2006.

Well, the Indians and White Sox are only in the fourth inning (on a rain delay), and in the three and half innings since the season started, every sportswriter’s second favorite “sleeper” pick has already lost their ace (Sabathia) to injury. So much for predictions. I have a few of my own, and I hope to add to them. First I’ll react to some of the things I’ve seen on espn.com and in The Mag, then make some more predictions. Ready? Let’s roll.

ESPN The Magazine released their top-to-bottom division predictions, and I believe that they’re all over the map. For starters, they predicted the Athletics to win the AL West and in the same paragraph, mentioned the idea that Billy Beane might be trying to move Barry Zito. The back half of their rotation is bad enough; they can’t afford to lose their ace. More reactions:

- Nobody at ESPN can write about the Rangers without mentioning the amount of home runs at Ameriquest. Nothing wrong with that, but they rarely ever mention that 65.6% of them were hit by the Rangers. They have power, and nobody gives them credit because there’s a stigma about the ballpark.

- Harold Reynolds, John Kruk, Peter Gammons, and Steve Phillips all picked the Cardinals to win the pennant on Baseball Tonight earlier. Tim Kurkjian picked them to win the division in The Mag. I think they just assume that they will win because they have in the past, but this offseason they lost Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Matt Morris, and Mark Grudzielanek and did virtually nothing to replace them. People seem to forget the 6.21 ERA that Ponson put up last year, not to mention the horrible demeanor that can wreck what is usually a professional clubhouse. I’m also not buying that Scott Rolen is back until I see it. The only thing that gives them a shot is Pujols.

- I can’t believe people think the Astros will succeed again. They added absolutely nobody to help their putrid offense, and Biggio isn’t getting any younger. At some point his aggressive play will catch up with him in the form of injury. It’s a shame, but it’s reality. The only way they break .500 is if Clemens comes back. It will be justice for the way they treated Bagwell.

- Everybody’s favorite sleeper is the Brewers. Again, this is based on a late run they made last season. But, Overbay’s not there anymore and Ben Sheets is injured. They have a bunch of rookies, no bullpen (except Turnbow, but somebody’s got to get him the ball) or bench, and only three legit starters. This is going to be a huge bust.

- Okay, call me a homer (I am), but nobody’s giving the Cubbies a chance because Wood and Prior are on the DL again. I saw an interview with Mark Prior recently, and he’s got the exact right attitude for someone who has to come back and prove himself all over again. And he’s not injury-prone - they’ve all been freak occurrences. As for Wood…I don’t know. Maybe he can be effective from the bullpen again. The bottom line is that nobody’s talking about the addition of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, and that Ronnie Cedeno is poised to break out. They’ve got a platoon of infielders that can be effective off the bench or traded. I see things looking up for them, not in fourth of fifth place in the Central like everybody’s saying.

- I’m tired of people picking the Braves “because I picked against them last year and got burned.” They have a total of two pitchers - bullpen included. You might be able to convince me of Chris Reitsma, but not yet. I love Francoeur and all those guys, but it’s not happening. The Mets have done too much.

Peter Gammons has his picks for individual awards out, and I can’t say I’m impressed. Here’s what he picked:

AL MVP: Bobby Crosby
This has to be an April Fool’s joke. I know that the media loves him and he plays hard, but he’s not an MVP. Steve Phillips points to the A’s record last year with and without him while he was injured, but being a good clubhouse presence doesn’t win you the MVP. Last year he played 84 games and had 9 HRs and 38 RBIs. If you were generous in your calculations, you would discover that he was on pace for 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. A look at his ‘04 stats confirm that this is not atypical (22 & 64). These aren’t even Moneyball numbers. Even Pujols had to wait until his fifth year in the league to win, (Crosby’s in his fourth) and Bobby is not even in Pujols’ league. Peter should have gone with Teixeira or A-Rod. He should also remove Grady Sizemore from his list.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
You can’t argue with this. What you can dispute is Chipper Jones on the runner-up list with Derrek Lee conspicuously absent. Chipper hit his prime…maybe 10 years ago? Not happening.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Unfortunately for Beckett, the Red Sox won’t be scoring as many runs this year. I just don’t see anybody who goes on the DL at least once every year for a blister contending. Santana or Halladay would have been better picks. You can’t really expect Gammons to write a column without predicting something outrageous for the Red Sox, though.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Nice sleeper pick.

Okay, hopefully the rain delay will end soon. My picks for individual awards:
MVP: Mark Teixeira (AL), Albert Pujols (NL)
Cy Young: Bartolo Colon (AL), Carlos Zambrano (NL)
Reliever of the Year: BJ Ryan (AL), Chad Cordero (NL)
Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johjima (AL), Matt Murton (NL)
Rookie Pitcher of the Year: I just looked over a list of eligible players and recognized maybe three names. No prediction. Here’s hoping for Edison Volquez and Angel Guzman.
Comeback Player of the Year (Position Player): Magglio Ordonez (AL), Barry Bonds (NL)
Comeback Player of the Year (Pitcher): Zack Greinke (AL), Mark Prior (NL)

Playoff Picks Revisted:
Here are my playoff teams that I picked a couple of months ago:

Mets
Cubs
Dodgers
Cardinals (WC)

Yankees
Indians
Rangers
Athletics (WC)

I reserve the right to change my picks, because it’s my blog and I was able to catch a few spring training games on TV. I’m going to leave the NL alone, but my AL picks get an overhaul. I have become increasingly less convinced about the Indians and more convinced about the Blue Jays. I’ve got the Blue Jays in the East, the White Sox in the Central (I was skeptical about Jim Thome, but it looks like it really was Philly that was the problem), and the West stays the same.

Ten Bold Predictions for 2006:
I was 1/2 for 10 last year (still an outside shot that Bonds retires at 715. Griffey almost made the season). They’re supposed to be bold, so no backing down.

1. David Wright will finish in the top 5 in MVP balloting. Oh yeah, bold…okay, top 3.
2. Roger Clemens will wait until the end of May to make his decision, making everybody think Astros…but he ends up with the Rangers.
3. Manny Ramirez will get injured messing around in the outfield, forcing David Ortiz to play in the field, effectively ending MVP conversations about him.
4. Nomar Garciaparra will end up playing second base for the Yankees.
5. Carl Crawford will demand a trade and end up in…Kansas City. The Royals will subsequently pass the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central.
6. Dontrelle Willis will lead the NL in ERA but struggle to stay above .500. 12 wins for D-Train.
7. Tony LaRussa will retire after this season.
8. Bobby Jenks gets roughed up sometime early in the season, loses the closer role, and slips into anonymity as his weight approaches 350 pounds.
9. League leaders in home runs: Paul Konerko and Cliff Floyd.
10. This year’s big name to get nailed for steroids: Milton Bradley.

Rain delay’s still not over, so…there’s still a chance that prediction number 8 comes true tonight. Happy baseball!