Just for Sport

I always hoped that by 2008, the Cubs would have won the World Series.  Alas, they haven’t, and now I have to endure insufferable Cardinals fans and Cubs haters of all stripes (hey Brewers fans, bandwagon much?) chanting "100 years" and coming up with other creative, original, and relevant things to say about the situation all year long.  So in the year 2008 will I pick the Cubbies to win it all?  No way.  I may not subscribe to all the curses and jinxes, but I am still a Cubs fan, and I know better than that.  Not this year.

AL East

On some level, the AL East is the easiest division to pick year in and year out.  You can pencil in either the Yankees or the Red Sox as the division winner and walk away feeling okay about it.  I’m not sure that it’s that simple anymore.  In any other division, I like the Rays to challenge for the title.  I would love it if they did so this year, but I don’t think they have the pitching staff for it yet.  They will play spoiler, and that’s why I’m picking New York: The Red Sox play the Rays more down the stretch.  I like the Blue Jays as well, but it’s hard for me to see them breaking through.  This division boasts 4 good teams, but I think the Yanks and Sox will stay on top for at least one more year.

New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

AL Central

This division could easily become a two horse race early.  In my opinion, it is the weakest division in baseball.  I will drink the Kool-Aid on Detroit mainly because of the division.  In fact, I believe they will capture the highest record in the American League.  While all of the East teams beat up on each other, the Tigers get to play Chicago, Minnesota, and Kansas City over and over.  Detroit will clinch early and be well rested for the playoffs. 

Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City 

AL West

The major storylines in the AL West will be the battle for the division title between the Angels and the Mariners and the battle to stay out of the cellar between the A’s and the Rangers.  You could pick any combination of four teams in the entire league and the gap between the top two teams and the bottom two teams would not be as big as it is here.  The Angels are among the elite teams and have only gotten better with their free agent acquisitions.  The only suspect area is their starting pitching, especially with John Lackey injured.  The Mariners are young and eager.  This will be an exciting race, and I think the Angels win because of their experience.  The Mariners capture the Wild Card, beating out Boston and Cleveland with their incredibly weak September schedule. 

Los Angeles at Anaheim (Can we just go back to calling them the California Angels?)
Seattle - Wild Card
Texas
Oakland 

NL East

Last year, Jimmy Rollins predicted a division title for the Phillies, and they delivered.  It took an amazing stretch run coupled with a historic Mets collapse, but it happened.  There was one major difference between what happened last year and what will happen this year: the Mets didn’t have Johan Santana last year.  I like the Mets to win easily this year.  I also like the Braves to surprise some people and beat out the Phillies for second place.  As for the other teams, I don’t see much movement from the cellar.

New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington 

NL Central

The six-team division is really only a four-team race.  A couple of years ago, I thought the Pirates would be an up-and-comer, but they haven’t done anything to improve themselves.  I also don’t believe in the Cardinals this year.  Last year, they looked out of it, and made a late push, and I don’t like to pick against Tony LaRussa, but look at their roster.  Their outfield is terrible, they have no middle infield, and the rotation is sub-par.  They just don’t have the personnel to compete.  Of the four other teams, I think the Cubs and the Reds look the strongest.  The Cubs’ lineup is formidable and they are solid in the rotation and in the bullpen.  The Reds look good as well, but you must consider the Dusty Baker factor, especially considering the state of their bullpen (save for Cordero).  The other two teams have glaring weaknesses.  The Astros have no rotation after Roy Oswalt, although I believe they will surprise a lot of people and beat some good teams.  The Brewers’ bullpen is the definition of suspect, and they must rely on Ben Sheets to be healthy, which is no small task.  This isn’t relevant, but they also have loudmouth fans that overrate their young players.

Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh 

NL West

Like the AL East, the NL West boasts four very strong teams - in this case, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Diego.  I think a lot of people believe that Colorado’s run last year was a fluke, but I’m not one of them.  I think they are legit, and they will challenge for the division.  I would feel good about choosing any of these four to win the division or the Wild Card, but I’m choosing Arizona and Colorado, in that order, for their mix of veteran leadership and youthful enthusiasm.

Arizona
Colorado - Wild Card
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco 

Playoffs 

American League Divisional Series

Detroit over Seattle (Wild Card) in 4 games

Seattle’s youthfulness works against them, especially against such a seasoned team. 

New York over California in 5 games 

You can point to Anaheim’s win over New York in 2002 as a turning point in the Yankee dynasty, and since then, the Angels have had a mental edge over the Yankees.  However, I believe in Joe Girardi, and I think he’s going to turn the Yankees around.

National League Divisional Series

New York over Colorado (Wild Card) in 3 games

The Mets, with Santana, have a significant advantage in a short series.  If Pedro Martinez can regain his form or John Maine can live up to expectations, they will be almost unbeatable.

Arizona over Chicago in 5 games

A rematch of last year’s series will end up the same way.  Arizona has all kinds of weapons that most casual fans don’t even know about: Connor Jackson and Chris Young are just two of them.

ALCS

Detroit over New York in 6 games

This sets up all kinds of interesting storylines: Gary Sheffield versus the Yankees, Joe Girardi versus Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and the rematch of two teams who brawled during the regular season.  That would probably be the case no matter who the Yankees end up playing, I guess, but still interesting nonetheless.  These two teams are represented by a ton of playoff experience, and I think it will be hard-fought.  In the end, I think the pitching for the Tigers wins out.

NLCS

Arizona over New York in 7 games

The media will be abuzz about a Subway Series, but neither New York team will make it there.  If you haven’t figured it out by now, I really like Arizona this year.  I think the addition of Dan Haren puts them over the top, but they need a lot of things to go right.  Their young players must perform up to expectations, Randy Johnson must have a resurgence, and above all, they must find a closer they can rely on.

World Series

Arizona over Detroit in 6 games

Ok, so you can see why I’d be tempted to take the Cubs to go to the Series, right?  Arizona has to have all these things happen just right, New York has a history of collapsing and they have one solid pitcher (granted, he’s more than solid), and everybody else has their flaws, too.  But, um, I’m not picking them.  Not this year.  Arizona will win the World Series, NOT the Cubs.  It’s in writing.  I am NOT jinxing the Cubs this year, the 100 year anniversary of their last championship.  It’s Arizona all the way.

Convincing enough?  I sure hope so… 

Let’s dispense with the pleasantries; on to the predictions.

American League

Both of my AL picks are gone, including my World Series pick. This is a curse, in that I was wrong, but it is also a blessing, because I get to start over. So what did we learn from the ALDS’s (What’s the correct grammar here?)? I’ve got 5 observations:

1 – Minnesota and Oakland both have horrible stadiums. Both teams share with their respective football team, which is good for neither sport. The Metrodome is much more adaptable than McAfee Stadium at masking that fact, except for the walls that are made out of blue Saran Wrap. By contrast, the Tigers and the Yankees showdown featured two excellent stadiums.

2 – A-Rod was horrible, but so was the rest of the Yankee line-up, a fact which has left many questioning the leadership of the team. Many are pointing to Torre, but I think the responsibility falls on Derek Jeter. Maybe at one point, he was a good captain, but now I see him as a guy who thinks he’s untouchable by the media – and unfortunately, he is. He’s had a nonchalant attitude throughout the postseason, as if there’s nothing to worry about until the World Series. Just because you’re the Yankees doesn’t mean you get a free pass through the playoffs.

3 – Jeremy Bonderman was amazing in a pennant-clinching win for the Detroit Tigers. I never, ever thought I would write that sentence. You think it’s easy to predict what’s going to happen in a 162-game season and subsequent playoffs? That’s why you play the games.

4 – Moneyball finally won something. Actually, Frank Thomas, who is the anti-Moneyball, won something for an otherwise mediocre team. Billy Beane should send the White Sox a thank you card for treating Thomas like crap.

5 – I really should have paid attention to the abominable finish the Twins had to the regular season. I didn’t put much stock into the momentum factor when I made my prediction, a cardinal sin. It turns out that getting swept by the Devil Rays at the end of the season means you will probably get swept by a playoff team next. By the way, have you ever seen a more sorrowful home run trot than Justin Morneau’s in the 9th inning of Game 3? What a shame for him to make that error after an MVP type season.

So who advances to the World Series? It’s easy to justify either team. The Athletics were able to defeat Santana, the proven veteran, and Liriano, the rookie phenom, so why couldn’t they also beat Rogers and Verlander? On the other hand, the Tigers pitching shut down what many were calling “the greatest lineup ever assembled” rather handily. I believe the Tigers advance because of five (really four) factors: (1) Jim Leyland. (2) Curtis Granderson. (3) Comerica Park vs. McAfee Stadium. (4) A’s lack of a third pitcher.

National League

My two teams advanced, so I suppose that I am bound by my previous picks. This isn’t such a bad thing, but I’m a little uneasy. The Mets are still a very good team, but without Pedro, El Duque, and possibly now Cliff Floyd, it’s looking like the Cardinals might get a free pass. But first, what did we learn?

1 – Is there a bigger joke in the Major Leagues than the NL West? I was impressed that they got two teams into the postseason, but did either team have a shot? Neither one looked like they had played a big game all season long.

2 – Chris Young was the lone bright spot for the Padres, who really looked horrible against a team with no momentum. Young is going to win a Cy Young one day, especially if he can stay in San Diego and pitch at Petco Park.

3 – Speaking of individual performances, what about Albert Pujols? If he continues to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them through postseason after postseason, he will be considered one of the all-time greats.

4 – Every season, it seems that one team grabs the label of “Team of Destiny” and decides to own it. This season’s team is the Mets. Our pitchers are injured? We’ll just win. Everybody’s talking about the other team in our town? We’ll just win. Willie Randolph has this team playing to its full potential.

5 – Everybody on the Dodgers seemed to act like they didn’t belong in the playoffs. Even the fans had an air about them that said, “We really made it? What now?” There was one point in the last game when Grady Little went out to the mound, and the stadium went deathly silent. Everybody was waiting for something to get screwed up, and when you play afraid, you lose.

I picked the Mets, and I’m sticking to it. The Cardinals still have Pujols, but the Mets have a team, and that will be the difference. In my opinion, it’s not going to matter, since the National League is so much weaker than the American League on the whole. In the middle of the season, I decided that the Mets would be the only team that had a chance against an AL team. Once again, with their losses it won’t be a very competitive series. So you can see where my new World Series pick is going…Tigers over Mets. See you in a week or two.

It’s an amazing time for the sports fan. The NFL is at the quarter pole, hockey starts tomorrow, and the baseball playoffs get underway today. Also, there are several specific issues to address: Dusty Baker, Albert Haynesworth, and Tiger Woods. Did I mention that basketball’s not on the radar yet (and that’s a good thing)? I’m just kidding…sort of. I’ll try my best to have several posts over the next couple of days; lots of predictions, some recaps, and plenty of commentary. This post: MLB playoffs preview. I’ll look at the first round match-ups, and then predict winners all the way to the Series. I plan on posting between every round. Picks are in bold.

2006 First Round Match-ups

American League

Minnesota (96-66) vs. Oakland (93-69)

Let me put it simply: I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon that says that Oakland cannot win in the playoffs. They have no line-up, except for Frank Thomas, and one pitcher. Minnesota, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the league. They definitely have the pitching to get it done in the playoffs, they’re defensively sound, and they’re getting production from nearly every position.

Detroit (95-67) vs. New York (97-65)
Detroit had a very strong showing at the beginning of the season, but their recent slump hurts them. Additionally, their bullpen just won’t be enough. I’m not sold on Todd Jones. I just don’t think what the Tigers can come up with will be able to compete with the Yankees, who have few weaknesses. If a New York starter not named Wang can step up consistently and they get some help from the middle relief, it will be hard to stop them.

National League

San Diego (88-74) vs. St. Louis (83-78)
St. Louis comes into this thing in bad shape. They are reeling from that near-historic collapse, and their window of opportunity seems to be closing. This year’s surprise, San Diego, benefited from some strong trades this year, and that pitching staff could carry them. But, as long as St. Louis has Pujols, the window of opportunity is open. The Padre staff will have a lot to overcome here.

Los Angeles (88-74) vs. New York (97-65)
This is tough. The Mets blew away the rest of the National League this year, but news that Pedro’s out for the playoffs really hurts their chances. The Dodgers are riding a ton of second-half momentum and have tons of playoff experience. I feel like the winner of this series is going to take the pennant. In a short series, I’ll go with the talent.

Championship Series
AL
Minnesota over New York
NL
New York over St. Louis

World Series
Minnesota over New York