I always hoped that by 2008, the Cubs would have won the World Series. Alas, they haven’t, and now I have to endure insufferable Cardinals fans and Cubs haters of all stripes (hey Brewers fans, bandwagon much?) chanting "100 years" and coming up with other creative, original, and relevant things to say about the situation all year long. So in the year 2008 will I pick the Cubbies to win it all? No way. I may not subscribe to all the curses and jinxes, but I am still a Cubs fan, and I know better than that. Not this year.
AL East
On some level, the AL East is the easiest division to pick year in and year out. You can pencil in either the Yankees or the Red Sox as the division winner and walk away feeling okay about it. I’m not sure that it’s that simple anymore. In any other division, I like the Rays to challenge for the title. I would love it if they did so this year, but I don’t think they have the pitching staff for it yet. They will play spoiler, and that’s why I’m picking New York: The Red Sox play the Rays more down the stretch. I like the Blue Jays as well, but it’s hard for me to see them breaking through. This division boasts 4 good teams, but I think the Yanks and Sox will stay on top for at least one more year.
New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore
AL Central
This division could easily become a two horse race early. In my opinion, it is the weakest division in baseball. I will drink the Kool-Aid on Detroit mainly because of the division. In fact, I believe they will capture the highest record in the American League. While all of the East teams beat up on each other, the Tigers get to play Chicago, Minnesota, and Kansas City over and over. Detroit will clinch early and be well rested for the playoffs.
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City
AL West
The major storylines in the AL West will be the battle for the division title between the Angels and the Mariners and the battle to stay out of the cellar between the A’s and the Rangers. You could pick any combination of four teams in the entire league and the gap between the top two teams and the bottom two teams would not be as big as it is here. The Angels are among the elite teams and have only gotten better with their free agent acquisitions. The only suspect area is their starting pitching, especially with John Lackey injured. The Mariners are young and eager. This will be an exciting race, and I think the Angels win because of their experience. The Mariners capture the Wild Card, beating out Boston and Cleveland with their incredibly weak September schedule.
Los Angeles at Anaheim (Can we just go back to calling them the California Angels?)
Seattle - Wild Card
Texas
Oakland
NL East
Last year, Jimmy Rollins predicted a division title for the Phillies, and they delivered. It took an amazing stretch run coupled with a historic Mets collapse, but it happened. There was one major difference between what happened last year and what will happen this year: the Mets didn’t have Johan Santana last year. I like the Mets to win easily this year. I also like the Braves to surprise some people and beat out the Phillies for second place. As for the other teams, I don’t see much movement from the cellar.
New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington
NL Central
The six-team division is really only a four-team race. A couple of years ago, I thought the Pirates would be an up-and-comer, but they haven’t done anything to improve themselves. I also don’t believe in the Cardinals this year. Last year, they looked out of it, and made a late push, and I don’t like to pick against Tony LaRussa, but look at their roster. Their outfield is terrible, they have no middle infield, and the rotation is sub-par. They just don’t have the personnel to compete. Of the four other teams, I think the Cubs and the Reds look the strongest. The Cubs’ lineup is formidable and they are solid in the rotation and in the bullpen. The Reds look good as well, but you must consider the Dusty Baker factor, especially considering the state of their bullpen (save for Cordero). The other two teams have glaring weaknesses. The Astros have no rotation after Roy Oswalt, although I believe they will surprise a lot of people and beat some good teams. The Brewers’ bullpen is the definition of suspect, and they must rely on Ben Sheets to be healthy, which is no small task. This isn’t relevant, but they also have loudmouth fans that overrate their young players.
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
NL West
Like the AL East, the NL West boasts four very strong teams - in this case, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Diego. I think a lot of people believe that Colorado’s run last year was a fluke, but I’m not one of them. I think they are legit, and they will challenge for the division. I would feel good about choosing any of these four to win the division or the Wild Card, but I’m choosing Arizona and Colorado, in that order, for their mix of veteran leadership and youthful enthusiasm.
Arizona
Colorado - Wild Card
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Playoffs
American League Divisional Series
Detroit over Seattle (Wild Card) in 4 games
Seattle’s youthfulness works against them, especially against such a seasoned team.
New York over California in 5 games
You can point to Anaheim’s win over New York in 2002 as a turning point in the Yankee dynasty, and since then, the Angels have had a mental edge over the Yankees. However, I believe in Joe Girardi, and I think he’s going to turn the Yankees around.
National League Divisional Series
New York over Colorado (Wild Card) in 3 games
The Mets, with Santana, have a significant advantage in a short series. If Pedro Martinez can regain his form or John Maine can live up to expectations, they will be almost unbeatable.
Arizona over Chicago in 5 games
A rematch of last year’s series will end up the same way. Arizona has all kinds of weapons that most casual fans don’t even know about: Connor Jackson and Chris Young are just two of them.
ALCS
Detroit over New York in 6 games
This sets up all kinds of interesting storylines: Gary Sheffield versus the Yankees, Joe Girardi versus Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and the rematch of two teams who brawled during the regular season. That would probably be the case no matter who the Yankees end up playing, I guess, but still interesting nonetheless. These two teams are represented by a ton of playoff experience, and I think it will be hard-fought. In the end, I think the pitching for the Tigers wins out.
NLCS
Arizona over New York in 7 games
The media will be abuzz about a Subway Series, but neither New York team will make it there. If you haven’t figured it out by now, I really like Arizona this year. I think the addition of Dan Haren puts them over the top, but they need a lot of things to go right. Their young players must perform up to expectations, Randy Johnson must have a resurgence, and above all, they must find a closer they can rely on.
World Series
Arizona over Detroit in 6 games
Ok, so you can see why I’d be tempted to take the Cubs to go to the Series, right? Arizona has to have all these things happen just right, New York has a history of collapsing and they have one solid pitcher (granted, he’s more than solid), and everybody else has their flaws, too. But, um, I’m not picking them. Not this year. Arizona will win the World Series, NOT the Cubs. It’s in writing. I am NOT jinxing the Cubs this year, the 100 year anniversary of their last championship. It’s Arizona all the way.
Convincing enough? I sure hope so…