Just for Sport

Note: On Monday, I broke down the Colts and Bears by position. Today, I give five keys that must happen for each team to win. Friday, I will give my pick and make some other predictions concerning Super Bowl XLI.

Colts
1. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes must be able to run inside as well as they run the stretch play.
It’s no secret that the Colts bread and butter run play is the stretch. The problem with that this week is that Brian Urlacher is arguable the most mobile middle linebacker in the league. The Colts were able to (somewhat) neutralize Ray Lewis by running straight at him. The good thing for the Colts is that they know they can do it; they just have to execute.
2. Peyton must spread the ball around.
There’s no question that the Bears will be ready for Harrison and Wayne. But can they be ready for all of the other weapons?
3. Bob Sanders must establish himself as a run stopper.
If he can do this, he will lift a mighty heavy burden off of the rest of the defense. If he cannot, the Bears will most certainly take advantage, run it down the middle all game, and chew up clock.
4. The defense must get at least two takeaways.
You almost have to believe that the Bears will be able to get at least two, so the Colts will have to keep pace and give Peyton enough opportunities.
5. Adam Vinatieri and Hunter Smith must kick away from Devin Hester.
There were at least two games that I can think of right now that Hester won for the Bears, simply because the opposing coach was too proud to tell his punter to angle the ball out of bounds. The Colts will not be able to afford to give the Bears any kind of momentum whatsoever, and kicking the ball to this year’s most prolific returner would do just that. Lost in all the talk about their defense is the fact that their special teams were pretty bad, too.

Bears
1. Lovie Smith must run the ball early.
Let me temper this: don’t be too stubborn. That’s the mistake Herm Edwards and Brian Billick made. Not only must Lovie call run plays, but Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson better get in there and break some tackles and gain some yards. If the Bears can’t establish the run, the Colts will get the ball more, which is never a recipe for success.
2. Rex Grossman must protect the ball.
If Rex turns it over, the Colts will capitalize. I don’t care how confident the kid is on media day, if he coughs it up, the momentum will be on the Colts’ side.
3. The defense must put pressure on Peyton.
The tried and true way to beat the Colts is to force Peyton into mistakes. The Bears run a pretty basic defense with not very much blitzing, so the front four will have to do the job.
4. Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman must contain Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
If they can’t, it won’t matter if Peyton spreads the ball around. If you allow these two to run free, the Colts will win 9 times out of 10.
5. The Bears must get on the board first.
We saw the Bears come back on the Arizona Cardinals, but they were the Cardinals. If you give points to the Colts, they will step on your throat and finish you. “If you want to crown ‘em, crown ‘em!”

For the first time in my memory, two teams that I have followed closely will meet in the Super Bowl. Since I know both teams fairly well, I thought it might be fun to do a position-by-position comparison before the big game. For those of you who haven’t made your decision on the winner yet, this might be helpful. In a couple of days, I will post what I see as keys to the game for both teams, and a day or two after that I will make several predictions, one of which will be the winner of the game. Let’s get started with the most important position on the field…

QB
P. Manning
Grossman

The last time the Bears were in the Super Bowl, the opposing quarterback was Tony Eason, who isn’t exactly Peyton Manning. Manning, whose playoff shortcomings have been well-documented (and exaggerated), is capable of beating any defense. Of course, the Monsters of the Midway were able to make Drew Brees look foolish, and it’s possible they could do that to Peyton, too. The way to get to Manning is to effectively blitz and frustrate him early with takeaways. The Bears are capable of both, but Peyton looked pretty unflappable against his long-time nemesis last week. In Chicago, the question will always be, “Good Rex or Bad Rex?” The Bears defense is good enough that they can get by most opponents without needing a big game from their quarterback, but this is the Super Bowl. Yes, Trent Dilfer won one with the Ravens, but they were also playing against Kerry Collins, Jim Fassell, and the rest of the Giants. The key for Rex has always been getting the run game established. This is very doable against the Colts, but if they can stop the run and the defensive ends start flying around, it could be a long game for Rex. This is one of the more bipolar QB combos in recent Super Bowl memory. If there ends up being a noticeable difference between these two on February 4, it will be because Peyton will know the Bears defense much better than Rex knows the Colts defense.

RB
Addai/Rhodes
Jones/Benson

Despite opposition from their respective fan bases, each of these teams has stubbornly stuck to their platoon of runners. Both have obviously been successful. This is a growing trend in the NFL, and I won’t be surprised if almost every team is doing something similar in years to come. I think that most fans of the Colts (including myself) believe Joseph Addai should be the guy, but Dominic Rhodes has proven to be a good change of pace when Addai needs rest. The same thing applies to Jones and Benson. These two platoons are going up against two different run defenses, though, and it will be interesting to see how the running game gets used. In the Championship game, the Colts used the running game to grind out the clock in the middle of their comeback and keep the Patriots defense on the field. The Bears have a better run defense that New England, so that strategy may not be on the table. On the other side, Lovie may try to open up the game with a heavy run attack to see which Colts defense has shown up.

FB
Mungro
McKie

Both of these fullbacks are great blocking backs who have been utilized by their teams in the passing game. Either can be used to keep the defense honest, and one of them will probably be a target in the red zone. If you had to bet on which one would be used more, I would take Mungro, simply because he’s been utilized on a more consistent basis. Lovie might have a hard time trusting McKie with the ball in such an important game, but you never know when a defense is going to overlook somebody.

TE
Dallas Clark
Desmond Clark

The two Clarks (no relation) are two of the best tight ends in the league. Dallas has been criticized recently for his willingness to stay in and block, but unjustifiably so. He is often one of the most important people on the field for the Colts, namely when they run the stretch play. Desmond is also very important to his team, for much the same reasons. What’s intriguing is that Dallas is generally more of a nimble guy, while Desmond is just a hulking presence. Both will probably be utilized quite a bit, especially early. Desmond will be called upon to take on Bob Sanders, while Dallas will try to get one of the safeties in single coverage.

WR1
Harrison
Muhammad

Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest wide receivers to play the game. To compare him with Muhsin Muhammad is ridiculous. I haven’t made my pick yet (honestly), but when you line up the positions and compare them and find that most are pretty equal, the following positions jump out: QB and WR. That’s pretty dangerous if you’re a Bears fan. Still, Muhammad is capable of production, and you can’t totally write him off.

WR2
Wayne
Berrian

Reggie Wayne is probably the best number two receiver in the league. In fact, you could stick him on the Chicago Bears, and he would probably be number one. What’s amazing about both Harrison and Wayne is that they are quite willing to give up touches for the sake of the team. The reality is that by playing unselfishly, they both benefit. Wayne will probably line up against Nathan Vasher, which is as much of a mismatch that you will find in this game.

WR3
Moorehead
Davis

The one thing lacking for the Colts offense this year has been a solid number three guy. Moorehead is one of those guys who was supposed to be really good by now, but hasn’t quite broken in. He shows flashes of brilliance, but he’s not exactly the model of consistency. Davis, on the other hand, is a viable option for Rex Grossman. He will likely line up opposite Marlin Jackson, a terribly underrated player, so both of the third receivers figure to have to work very hard to make any kind of difference in this game.

OL
Glenn/Lilja/Saturday/Scott/Diem
Tait/Brown/Kreutz/Garza/Miller

Here’s a fact: You must have an outstanding offensive line to make the Super Bowl. This year’s teams provide no exception. I know little to none about the offensive line, but I know that based on reputation, Jeff Saturday and Olin Kreutz are the two best centers in the league. Both lines are outstanding in run and pass protection, and both will need to be this week.

DT
McFarland/Brock
Harris/Idonije

I know I’ve been praising Bob Sanders for boosting Indy’s defense, but Anthony McFarland is probably the best thing that happened to the Colts this year. He came in mid-stream and picked up on his old coach’s system in time to do what a defensive tackle needs to do in the Cover 2 – clog up the middle. There hasn’t been anybody capable of that job in Indy in the Tony Dungy era. The Bears, on the other hand, used to rely on Tank Johnson, who is under “house arrest,” but can somehow attend the game in Miami. Idonije and some other guys have been rotating through and done a very good job. I wonder if he’s seen an offensive line like the Colts’.

DE
Freeney/Mathis
Ogunleye/Brown

Not long ago, I listed Dwight Freeney on the NFL All-Overrated team. Why? Because he doesn’t stop the run. That doesn’t mean that he’s not a great pass rusher. He’s fast, and for some reason, tackles don’t seem to know how to handle his spin move. Ogunleye, however, is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He can get down the field and put pressure on the quarterback, but he can also pursue the run like most ends can’t.

LB
Morris/Brackett/June
Hillenmeyer/Urlacher/Briggs

The Chicago Bears have the best linebacker corps in the league. You can take the Ravens, I want the Bears. Ray Lewis is nasty, but so is Brian Urlacher. He can pursue sideline to sideline, and on the next play he will be double-covering a tight end with Danieal Manning or Todd Johnson. Urlacher is the single biggest obstacle to the Colts hoisting the Lombardi trophy, and he is the sole reason I still can’t decide who I’m going to pick. In other news, the much-maligned Rob Morris is actually part of the solution to Indy’s most recent defensive woes after being switched to starter in the playoffs.

CB
Harper/David
Tillman/Vasher

Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher get a lot of press – much more than Nick Harper or Jason David. I’m not sure Harper was in the national consciousness until his wife famously stabbed him the night before the Steelers game and Nick infamously didn’t cut outside on Ben Roethlisberger during that game. Still, he’s a very good corner. I understand the hype that Tillman gets, but I don’t quite get Nathan Vasher. If you remember, neither one of these guys could cover Steve Smith in last year’s playoffs, and if you ask me, Vasher hasn’t been the same since. Usually one of the other members of the secondary bails him out, or you would see a little more about him in the Chicago media and perhaps a little less about Rex Grossman.

SS
Bethea
Johnson

Andres Bethea has matured as the season progresses. In fact, opposing quarterbacks have often tried to pick on him, only to pay for it. He will have his hands full with the physical specimen that is Desmond Clark, but he seemed able to keep Todd Heap in check for the most part. Todd Johnson, however, had trouble with Jerramy Stevens in the Seattle game. Look for Peyton to go to Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht.

FS
Sanders
D. Manning

I have used this space to laud Bob Sanders for the impact he has had on the Colts run defense, but last Sunday, he proved that he is a boost to the pass defense as well. For my Dallas fans, I like to say that Sanders is Roy Williams, except that he can cover. Manning has also done a superb job this year. He made an impact early on in the season and has helped his team win a few close games. Playing for Chicago has allowed him to take calculated risks, most of which have paid off. He is a factor in the turnover game, and could play a major role.

Nickelback
Jackson
R. Manning, Jr.

Ricky Manning, Jr. was an adequate corner for Carolina last year, but has really flourished in his new role with his new team. The outstanding play of the rest of the secondary has allowed him to be in position for key interceptions throughout the year. Marlin Jackson received some attention last week for his fourth quarter pick of Tom Brady, which was the first time most people had heard of him. Actually, Jackson was drafted last year in the first round to help plug the holes in Indy’s soft defense. His presence has helped the Colts have one of the top passing defenses in the league. Both of these DBs are very effective and will help their respective defense in passing situations. If there are a lot of punts and field goals in this year’s Super Bowl, it will be because these guys were effective in shutting down multiple receiver sets on third down.

K
Vinatieri
Gould

Adam Vinatieri is certainly a very good kicker, but Robbie Gould is just about as good. Both can hit field goals from 45+ on a fairly consistent basis, and both are effective at locating kickoffs deep. When it comes down to a crucial situation at the end of a game, I’d feel better having Vinatieri out there, but that doesn’t mean that Gould couldn’t get it done, too.

P
Smith
Maynard

Let’s go with pure stats on this one. Hunter Smith punted 47 times in 2006 for a 44.4 average, with a long of 61. He was blocked once, had 5 touchbacks (10.6%), and 14 inside the 20 (29.8%). His net punting average was 35.3. Brad Maynard punted 77 times (much larger sample) in 2006 for a 44.2 average, with a long of 65. He was not blocked, had 7 touchbacks (9.1%), and 24 inside the 20 (31.2%). His net punting average was 37.6. Smith was not forced to make any tackles for his team this year, while Maynard was put in that situation three times. I couldn’t find any stats for this, but it doesn’t seem like either team gave up a punt return this year. Slight edge goes to Maynard for punting skills, although Chicago was forced to punt 1.63 times more than Indianapolis (almost an entire standard deviation, if I remember my statistics right).

On an unrelated note, I maintain that the best position to play in the National Football League would be punter. If you were to take the consensus best punter and consensus worst punter in the league (Can’t think of whom that might be? Point made.) and compared their statistics side by side, they wouldn’t be that different. They don’t have to deal with game ending situations like kickers do, and they maintain anonymity. I watched several Bears games this season and I still had to look up the punter’s name, regardless of the fact that he appeared 77 times.

KR/PR
Wilkins
Hester

To paraphrase that Bears radio announcer, Devin Hester is ridiculous. I don’t see Dungy giving him much of a chance. Lovie has no reason not to kick to Wilkins, but he has the capability of being a game-changer. Hester was drafted by the Bears in the hopes that he would be an effective returner, which makes this a good time to point out that both teams in Super Bowl XLI had very good drafts this year (and last year), coming up with guys who were able to have a significant impact right away. There’s no getting around it; teams must draft well (and not just early in the first round) to be successful in the NFL. By the way, if the Bears end up having to rely on Hester’s services in pass coverage, the Colts will have no problem putting six points on the board almost every drive. When he had to play nickel back for the suspended Ricky Manning, Jr. against St. Louis in Week 14, the Rams exploited the mismatch every time he was on the field.

There it is. Let me know if you disagree or if I have left anything out. Come back in a couple of days for more Super Bowl.

Well, we’re down to the final four. Three of the teams left are teams I’ve been cheering for this year, and the other one is one I can’t stand. One of these teams will be the Super Bowl champion, and I think I will vomit if it is the Patriots. This is a tough week for picking winners, as most Championship weeks are. There’s so much build-up this time around, especially in the AFC. It will be fun to find out if both games can live up to their billing. Let’s start in the NFC.

Bears-Saints
I’ve been rooting for both teams this year, for very different reasons. ACU’s own Danieal Manning has been doing a great job in his rookie season starting at Free Safety for the Bears. One article I read at the beginning of the season (I’d link to it, but the article is no longer free) called him “a promising young player that covers like a cornerback and hits like a linebacker.” What an endorsement. I’ve also been cheering for the Saints because of the Katrina factor. When I was in the New Orleans area this summer, the fact that the team was coming back at all was a source of excitement. Nobody expected they’d do this well. Ultimately, I’d like the Saints to win because I think America needs to continue to hear stories from Hurricane Katrina. I think they will get it done. In a shootout, which is a possibility, the Bears won’t be able to keep up with the Saints. I’m not sure how high each team will go, but the Saints win by two field goals. Look for Drew Brees to frustrate Brian Urlacher.

Colts-Patriots
I’m scared about this weekend, for three reasons: (1) If the Colts can’t pull it off now, can they ever? (2) Earlier in the postseason, the Colts performed well partly because they felt they were underdogs. Now it might be tempting for them to come out and think that they deserve it. (3) Recent history aside, I’m still worried about the run defense. Having said that, I’m still confident. Even if Rodney Harrison is able to play, the Patriots’ secondary is still very beatable. I’m feeling a rant coming. If you don’t want to read it, skip the next paragraph.

It’s always driven me nuts that Tom Brady gets all the credit for the success of the Patriots. Weren’t they the team that chose to be introduced all together at the Super Bowl? Yet, when Adam Vinatieri or the Patriots defense win a game for the Patriots (or the ref calls a “tuck rule” or John Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds or Donovan McNabb throws up on the final drive), Brady gets praised. “His” playoff record is 12-1. After last week’s game, which was horrible, Scott Van Pelt was moved to say, “In the end, Tom Brady was just better.” The Chargers missed a field goal! Sean Salisbury, who has always slurped up to Brady said, “This game shows why Tom Brady is the most clutch quarterback in playoff history.” Are you kidding me? Read what I wrote last week, and tell me if I was right.

In any case, I’m taking the Colts. It will be close for a half, but the Colts O will come out and put it away sometime in the early fourth quarter, making the RCA Dome a rockin’ place. All of this will set up…

Super Bowl XLI: Colts-Saints
Inevitably, this game would come to be known as “The Archie Manning Bowl.” So much publicity would surround the Manning family even I would get tired of it. Media circus aside, this would be a great game. Both teams, if they won this week, would come in with all kinds of momentum. Both offenses would have field days. Most importantly, both teams would really, truly feel like they needed the win. What a dream match-up.

I went 2-2 last week, although you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys should have won.  Good riddance.  So, two of my matchups stood up: Philadelphia @ New Orleans and Indianapolis @ Baltimore.  Let’s deal with those two first, because I’m flip-flopping on one of them (guess which one?).  Here we go:

NFC 

#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans

Apparently it doesn’t matter who Andy Reid puts out on the field; the Eagles just win football games.  But they won’t win this one.  In their regular season meeting, Sean Payton outcoached Reid in a close one that I was originally mad about.  The New Orleans Saints will play to win the game in the Superdome, and they will be successful.  I wish I could be there.

AFC

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore

Why am I changing my pick?  Two very important things happened last week that I, as a Colts fan, had been hoping for all year: 1 - Bob Sanders played.  I’ve always thought he was the difference maker on that defense, and it turns out that was true.  2 - Joseph Addai got the start.  Indy would have been good for 2 more wins this year if Tony Dungy hadn’t been so committed to Dominic Rhodes.  It was a smart move, though.  Addai is fresh, and it’s not like the Colts didn’t make it here.  The Ravens have been making stupid comments about Addai this week.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, you can’t get cocky against the Colts’ O.  Quick trivia question: What DB did Peyton beat to get his 49th TD pass a couple of years ago?  Chris McAllister.  By the way, Steve McNair isn’t the quarterback he was when he and Manning shared the MVP.

Two of the match-ups changed.  In the playoffs, match-ups are more important (usually) than how good a team is.

NFC

#4 Seattle @ #1 Chicago

Seattle seems to be the team that everybody’s overlooking.  I think that’s pretty justifiable, but it’s always dangerous.  The wild card in this game that a lot of people are talking about is Rex Grossman.  That’s the wrong place to put the emphasis.  If Seattle can establish the run game, get the Bears spread out, and exploit the corners, they will win.  It won’t happen.

AFC

#4 New England @ #1 San Diego

A lot of people are hyping this game up big-time.  The reasoning is that New England always does well in the postseason, they ended strong, bla bla bla.  Remember, those were relatively weak teams.  San Diego is not a weak team by any stretch.  Even if Bill Belichick were to live up to his genius label, it wouldn’t matter.  You cannot gameplan a tackle, and LT doesn’t just lie down for people.  To beat the Chargers, you have to have a passing game, and that’s the Pats weakness, Word Incarnate in Tom Brady notwithstanding.  Remember last week, when Peyton went 30/38 with one interception and two more because his receiver ran the wrong route?  Everybody talked about how horrible his game was.  Tom Brady will have a much worse game than that, but he’ll be praised for his performance if his defense can bail him out like in the past.

I haven’t posted my picks since Week 7 (schoolwork started to catch up to me), and since then I fell from 62-25 (.713) to 150-106 (.586). It’s not as bad as it looks, since I didn’t get my Week 12 picks in on time and went 0-16 that week. Anyway, I ended up tying with my father in our challenge after mounting a five week comeback. These picks have to be right, since we will be using the entire playoffs as a tiebreaker.

NFC Wild Card
#6 NY Giants @ #3 Philadelphia
These two split their regular season matchups, with the Giants winning in Week 2 and the Eagles taking it in Week 15. These teams know each other very well, which means a lot of what happens here will come down to coaching. In that case, I take Andy Reid over Tom Coughlin every time.

#5 Dallas @ #4 Seattle
A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure the Cowboys could go deep in the playoffs. Now it seems like the rest of the league is catching up to Romo, and the Seahawks make for a pretty tough first round opponent. They have what many believe to be the best home field advantage in the league. However, Mike Holmgren showed me something this week: He doesn’t believe in his team. Why else would he talk all week as if Shaun Alexander weren’t playing, and then give him the ball 29 times…and in a meaningless game against the Bucs? Sure, the Cowboys had something to play for and lost to a horrible team, but riding your players hard unnecessarily? This happens at least once every year, and that team invariably loses.

AFC Wild Card
#6 Kansas City @ #3 Indianapolis
This is Indy’s weakest year in a long time, but I can’t see them losing to Herm Edwards in the playoffs. Larry Johnson will certainly tear up that run defense, but Peyton will also carve up the Chief’s secondary. Ty Law can’t cover anybody, and you can bet that even if it is close, Herm will find a way to mismanage the clock and give it to the Colts. By the way, (and I don’t want to overstate this) if Bob Sanders can play, the run defense will be twice as good. I know that’s not saying a lot, but still.

#5 New York Jets @ #4 New England
Once again, these two teams split their regular season meetings. The Patriots fended off a Jets comeback in Week 2, and the Jets took Week 10 in a close one. Here’s my beef: The talking heads still speak of New England as if they were the perfect team. They’ve got terrific chemistry, any ball Tom Brady throws turns to gold, Belichick deserves a Nobel prize, they’ve got loads more class than anybody, etc. In the past year, they’ve shown me none of these qualities. In the first round last year, they kept their starters in a ran up the score against Jacksonville. Then karma caught up to them and they lost to the Broncos. They whined and whined about the Champ Bailey play. Maybe they were justified, but show me how that means they have class. Tom Brady can’t hit an open receiver (it’s not the receivers’ fault, stop giving him a free pass), and in Week 10 the Jets went into Gillette and beat the Pats in a game Belichick desperately wanted to win. And just when you hadn’t heard any whining in a while, all the players got up in arms over an injury to an injury-prone player (Harrison) that happened on a routine play. It’s bad news when that’s what the locker room is trying to rally around. The Jets defense gets it done in this one. Just as I wrote this, some guy on Cold Pizza said the “Jets had no chance to win” and “Tom Brady has been disrespected this year”. Give me a break.

NFC Divisional Playoff
#3 Philadelphia @ #2 New Orleans
Remember back in September, when everybody thought that the Falcons would come into the Superdome and ruin the Saints first home game? Then U2 came in and New Orleans played out of their minds in front of a rowdy crowd. The Saints have ridden that momentum all the way through the season, and Jeff Garcia is not going to be the person to take that away.

#5 Dallas @ #1 Chicago
After Dallas upsets Seattle on the road, they will face the *real* best home field advantage in the league. I’m sure a lot of people have Chicago one and done because of the inconsistent play of Rex Grossman, but the defense and special teams will more than make up for it against Dallas.

AFC Divisional Playoff
#5 NY Jets @ #1 San Diego
Mangini can get the Jets up for the game against New England, but San Diego is too talented to be overcome by willpower alone. The Jets have a good defense, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons; they may not even have to use them all.

#3 Indianapolis @ #2 Baltimore
I’ve been dumping on Steve McNair all year long. I’m still not a believer, but he’s more than able to get it done against this defense. Unlike Kansas City, they have multiple weapons and will be able to drive the ball and keep Manning off the field.

NFC Championship
#2 New Orleans @ #1 Chicago
At different times this season, I have been a believer in each of these teams. I’m not completely sold on the Saints, but I believe in Drew Brees.

AFC Championship
#2 Baltimore @ #1 San Diego
This, I believe, is where McNair falters. San Diego’s secondary has always been suspect, but pressure from the other side of the ball will force Steve into mistakes.

Super Bowl XLI
New Orleans vs. San Diego
It will be a hard fought game, but LaDainian Tomlinson will emerge from his record-breaking season as the Super Bowl MVP. 34-28.