Just for Sport

Generally, when I make my picks each week, I do my best to go with my instinct. I have found that overanalyzing a game can often make you miss the big picture. That’s why, when I got to this week’s games, I had a lot of trouble. There were only four or five games that I had a strong gut feel about, and that makes me nervous. Am I reading too much into Atlanta’s red zone stats? Is the fact that Detroit’s secondary horrible really enough for the Bills to win? This week was a lot tougher. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident that I can improve my record once again. You heard it here: 12-1. Which one will I get wrong? If I knew that, I wouldn’t get it wrong.

Last Week: 12-2 (.857)
Overall: 57-17 (.770)

Buffalo @ Detroit
What an ugly game to start off with. You think it’s easy to pick this game? Each team’s got an inconsistent quarterback. Both Kitna and Losman have been at the bottom and the top of their games at some point in this young season. Thus, I’m going with the quarterback who’s set up in the best position to win. Detroit’s secondary is horrible, so it’s got to be J.P. Losman and the Bills. Plus they’ve got Willis. Pick: Buffalo

Houston @ Dallas
It’s a shame that this game doesn’t happen more often. You might not think so now, but the next time these two meet, I believe the playing field will be more even. Don’t forget that Houston won its first game as a franchise against the ‘Boys. Not this week, though. Houston has a little bit of momentum and a bye week, but the Cowboys have Bill Parcells and something to prove. Pick: Dallas

Carolina @ Baltimore
Since I started writing this post, I have flip-flopped on this game twice. Part of me thinks that the loss of DeAngelo Williams really hurts the Panthers. The other part of me wants Steve McNair to fail so I can look really smart. Honestly, though, the Ravens have an awesome defense that can keep them in any game. Carolina’s defense is very good also, and should give McNair fits, but they will not be able to run and Jake Delhomme will struggle. Baltimore ekes it out at the end. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants @ Atlanta
Get ready for a shoot-out. Neither team has an outstanding defense, and both can light up the scoreboard, albeit in different ways. Atlanta’s rushing attack is potent as always, but getting rid of T.J. Duckett has, in my opinion, had more impact than people want to talk about. You want proof? The Falcons are last in the NFL in red zone offense. In a game where the two-minute drill is likely to make a difference, I’ll take Eli Manning over Mike Vick. Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee @ Washington
Which Washington team is going to show up? In my opinion, the one that beat Jacksonville. Why? Clinton Portis is getting better. More than that, though, they’re playing the Titans, an extremely young team that would probably be getting more notice as an extremely bad team if it weren’t for the Lions and the Raiders. Pick: Washington

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay
This one seems pretty simple. Aside from the game in New England, the Bengals have shown that they deserve their reputation as a team that could run up the score any given week – and they haven’t even gotten Chad Johnson really involved yet. I’m of the opinion that Bruce Gradkowski is actually an upgrade from Chris Simms, but Tampa Bay’s defense has been surprisingly inept thus far. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ St. Louis
St. Louis is quite possibly one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They don’t turn the ball overall, they’re balanced on offense, and their defense can shut teams down. Seattle will once again be without Shaun Alexander, which really hurts their chances. When the NFC West comes down to a difference of one or two games, this injury will prove to be one of great impact. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
At one point, I said something about not picking against the Saints in the Superdome this year. That rule worked out for me last week, when I wanted to pick the Bucs and didn’t. This week, though, I find it hard to pick against the red-hot Eagles, whom I believe to be in the top 5 in the league. Even if Westbrook doesn’t start (and who knows if he will?), Philly’s got the tools to overwhelm the Saints, even in the Superdome. Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego @ San Francisco
Philip Rivers’ coming-out party will continue this week. Expectations are continually being raised for the Chargers, and I see little chance of a let-down against an improving, but still mediocre team. Alex Smith still needs to prove himself to me. Pick: San Diego

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Damon Huard, not Dante Hall, is the X-Factor in this game. If he can continue to play out of his mind, he will send the defending champs to 1-4. Pittsburgh just looks bad right now, and it’s going to take a miracle to get out of that funk. And you know what? I’m loving it! My two younger brothers’ favorite teams (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) have a combined 1 win through Week 5, and it’s not looking like they’ll have any more next week. Pick: Kansas City

Miami @ NY Jets
These teams, on the whole, aren’t very good. The Jets played the Colts well, but don’t read too much into that, because so did the Titans. They promptly tanked against the Chiefs, proving that when they face a good defense, they can’t move the ball. For all the talk about Culpepper in Miami, people have missed that the Dolphins have a great defense that has actually kept them in games. With Harrington, I think they have a shot here. Pick: Miami

Oakland @ Denver
I’m not sure this needs an explanation. If Denver doesn’t win by at least 20, I will be sorely disappointed. Seriously. Pick: Denver

Chicago @ Arizona
This one seems pretty simple as well. Many are calling Chicago the most complete team in the NFL. I’m not worried about Chicago losing; what I want to know is: Will Daniael Manning get some credit during the stupid new MNF player intros? Will he get a pick? My answers are no and yes. Pick: Chicago

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 5, I’m 5-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland.