Just for Sport

I was playing for the seventh grade football team when I learned first-hand that the best team doesn’t always win. For the second game of the season, we played another small town team, and we were killing them. We were tackling harder, we were running the ball down their throats, and they couldn’t move the ball at all. There were a couple of breaks that just didn’t go our way. One of their players stripped the ball from our running back after he was already down, they ran back a kickoff, and kicked an onside kick at the end of the game and ran out the clock to seal the deal. Our coach was probably the maddest about the last one, because its apparently against the code of Jr. High coaches to run trick plays. Anyway, he gave us a speech about outplaying the other team but still being outscored, probably just to make us feel better. I took it to heart, however. I had played effectively on both sides of the ball, and I was upset most when the other team simply ran out the clock. We had won that game, but they got the W. Ever since then, my biggest complaint about the game of football has been the clock. As a matter of fact, I’ve never been a fan of the clock in any sport. It makes the winning team way too conservative. In my mind, if you’re not truly competing for the duration of the game, it’s a cheap win. This is one of many reasons that I prefer baseball. It’s never to a baseball team’s advantage to stop trying to score runs, or worse, for the losing team to let the other team score so they’ll actually have an opportunity at the end of the game. It’s also why I find college football’s overtime system to be far superior, and the current overtime format of hockey satisfying. Finally, it’s why I found myself getting mad at Sean Payton last week. The Saints actually kneeled the ball for the last two minutes in order to win the game. Why are we rewarding teams for being passive and not playing the game? I’m not really mad at Payton, though. He’s just coaching the game given the rules. I’m just bitter about the rules, because too many football games come down to [shudder] clock management. I know it will never change, and the NFL will never get rid of kickers, but this kind of play will never truly determine the best team, in my mind. Am I just a bitter person because I lost that game in seventh grade and had a losing record last week? Probably. But you know I have a point…

This week, the picks will be shorter. Two reasons: (A) my little rant above is enough space anyway, and (B) I need to get better about going with my instinct (see last week). So, here it is. Winners are in italics.

Last Week: 5-8 (.385)
Total: 62-25 (.713)

Carolina @ Cincinnati
Steve Smith is too good for a struggling Bengals team.

Detroit @ NY Jets
It’ll take more than one game for me to be sold on the Lions, especially on the road.

Green Bay @ Miami
I’m probably one of the few who still thinks Miami has a shot in that weak division.

Jacksonville @ Houston
With Indy looking vulnerable, the Jaguars have to be smelling blood.

New England @ Buffalo
I’ve been a believer in Losman before, and he’s made me look foolish. No more.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Only as long as Gruden doesn’t kneel the ball for a game-winning field goal - and he would never do that in a million years.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
No way Mike Vick gets it done against this defense.

San Diego @ Kansas City
Philip Rivers is going strong, and the Chiefs’ defense was exposed last week.

Denver @ Cleveland
It will only be a matter of time before somebody puts some points up on this defense, but the Browns aren’t the team to do it.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are hungover after last week’s collapse, but the Raiders are what the doctor ordered.

Minnesota @ Seattle
The addition (and good play) of Deion Branch has to make Seattle a Super Bowl favorite, if Shaun Alexander will ever come back.

Washington @ Indianapolis
McFarland gets his first test against Portis and the boys. Even if he fails, Peyton can beat the Redskins blindfolded.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Why all the Tiki Barber talk? To create a diversion from all of their other problems.

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 6, I’m 6-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland. W 13-3
Week 7: JACKSONVILLE, vs. Houston.

Generally, when I make my picks each week, I do my best to go with my instinct. I have found that overanalyzing a game can often make you miss the big picture. That’s why, when I got to this week’s games, I had a lot of trouble. There were only four or five games that I had a strong gut feel about, and that makes me nervous. Am I reading too much into Atlanta’s red zone stats? Is the fact that Detroit’s secondary horrible really enough for the Bills to win? This week was a lot tougher. That doesn’t mean I’m not confident that I can improve my record once again. You heard it here: 12-1. Which one will I get wrong? If I knew that, I wouldn’t get it wrong.

Last Week: 12-2 (.857)
Overall: 57-17 (.770)

Buffalo @ Detroit
What an ugly game to start off with. You think it’s easy to pick this game? Each team’s got an inconsistent quarterback. Both Kitna and Losman have been at the bottom and the top of their games at some point in this young season. Thus, I’m going with the quarterback who’s set up in the best position to win. Detroit’s secondary is horrible, so it’s got to be J.P. Losman and the Bills. Plus they’ve got Willis. Pick: Buffalo

Houston @ Dallas
It’s a shame that this game doesn’t happen more often. You might not think so now, but the next time these two meet, I believe the playing field will be more even. Don’t forget that Houston won its first game as a franchise against the ‘Boys. Not this week, though. Houston has a little bit of momentum and a bye week, but the Cowboys have Bill Parcells and something to prove. Pick: Dallas

Carolina @ Baltimore
Since I started writing this post, I have flip-flopped on this game twice. Part of me thinks that the loss of DeAngelo Williams really hurts the Panthers. The other part of me wants Steve McNair to fail so I can look really smart. Honestly, though, the Ravens have an awesome defense that can keep them in any game. Carolina’s defense is very good also, and should give McNair fits, but they will not be able to run and Jake Delhomme will struggle. Baltimore ekes it out at the end. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants @ Atlanta
Get ready for a shoot-out. Neither team has an outstanding defense, and both can light up the scoreboard, albeit in different ways. Atlanta’s rushing attack is potent as always, but getting rid of T.J. Duckett has, in my opinion, had more impact than people want to talk about. You want proof? The Falcons are last in the NFL in red zone offense. In a game where the two-minute drill is likely to make a difference, I’ll take Eli Manning over Mike Vick. Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee @ Washington
Which Washington team is going to show up? In my opinion, the one that beat Jacksonville. Why? Clinton Portis is getting better. More than that, though, they’re playing the Titans, an extremely young team that would probably be getting more notice as an extremely bad team if it weren’t for the Lions and the Raiders. Pick: Washington

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay
This one seems pretty simple. Aside from the game in New England, the Bengals have shown that they deserve their reputation as a team that could run up the score any given week – and they haven’t even gotten Chad Johnson really involved yet. I’m of the opinion that Bruce Gradkowski is actually an upgrade from Chris Simms, but Tampa Bay’s defense has been surprisingly inept thus far. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ St. Louis
St. Louis is quite possibly one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They don’t turn the ball overall, they’re balanced on offense, and their defense can shut teams down. Seattle will once again be without Shaun Alexander, which really hurts their chances. When the NFC West comes down to a difference of one or two games, this injury will prove to be one of great impact. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
At one point, I said something about not picking against the Saints in the Superdome this year. That rule worked out for me last week, when I wanted to pick the Bucs and didn’t. This week, though, I find it hard to pick against the red-hot Eagles, whom I believe to be in the top 5 in the league. Even if Westbrook doesn’t start (and who knows if he will?), Philly’s got the tools to overwhelm the Saints, even in the Superdome. Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego @ San Francisco
Philip Rivers’ coming-out party will continue this week. Expectations are continually being raised for the Chargers, and I see little chance of a let-down against an improving, but still mediocre team. Alex Smith still needs to prove himself to me. Pick: San Diego

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Damon Huard, not Dante Hall, is the X-Factor in this game. If he can continue to play out of his mind, he will send the defending champs to 1-4. Pittsburgh just looks bad right now, and it’s going to take a miracle to get out of that funk. And you know what? I’m loving it! My two younger brothers’ favorite teams (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) have a combined 1 win through Week 5, and it’s not looking like they’ll have any more next week. Pick: Kansas City

Miami @ NY Jets
These teams, on the whole, aren’t very good. The Jets played the Colts well, but don’t read too much into that, because so did the Titans. They promptly tanked against the Chiefs, proving that when they face a good defense, they can’t move the ball. For all the talk about Culpepper in Miami, people have missed that the Dolphins have a great defense that has actually kept them in games. With Harrington, I think they have a shot here. Pick: Miami

Oakland @ Denver
I’m not sure this needs an explanation. If Denver doesn’t win by at least 20, I will be sorely disappointed. Seriously. Pick: Denver

Chicago @ Arizona
This one seems pretty simple as well. Many are calling Chicago the most complete team in the NFL. I’m not worried about Chicago losing; what I want to know is: Will Daniael Manning get some credit during the stupid new MNF player intros? Will he get a pick? My answers are no and yes. Pick: Chicago

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 5, I’m 5-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland. W 20-12
Week 6: DENVER, vs. Oakland.

Let’s dispense with the pleasantries; on to the predictions.

American League

Both of my AL picks are gone, including my World Series pick. This is a curse, in that I was wrong, but it is also a blessing, because I get to start over. So what did we learn from the ALDS’s (What’s the correct grammar here?)? I’ve got 5 observations:

1 – Minnesota and Oakland both have horrible stadiums. Both teams share with their respective football team, which is good for neither sport. The Metrodome is much more adaptable than McAfee Stadium at masking that fact, except for the walls that are made out of blue Saran Wrap. By contrast, the Tigers and the Yankees showdown featured two excellent stadiums.

2 – A-Rod was horrible, but so was the rest of the Yankee line-up, a fact which has left many questioning the leadership of the team. Many are pointing to Torre, but I think the responsibility falls on Derek Jeter. Maybe at one point, he was a good captain, but now I see him as a guy who thinks he’s untouchable by the media – and unfortunately, he is. He’s had a nonchalant attitude throughout the postseason, as if there’s nothing to worry about until the World Series. Just because you’re the Yankees doesn’t mean you get a free pass through the playoffs.

3 – Jeremy Bonderman was amazing in a pennant-clinching win for the Detroit Tigers. I never, ever thought I would write that sentence. You think it’s easy to predict what’s going to happen in a 162-game season and subsequent playoffs? That’s why you play the games.

4 – Moneyball finally won something. Actually, Frank Thomas, who is the anti-Moneyball, won something for an otherwise mediocre team. Billy Beane should send the White Sox a thank you card for treating Thomas like crap.

5 – I really should have paid attention to the abominable finish the Twins had to the regular season. I didn’t put much stock into the momentum factor when I made my prediction, a cardinal sin. It turns out that getting swept by the Devil Rays at the end of the season means you will probably get swept by a playoff team next. By the way, have you ever seen a more sorrowful home run trot than Justin Morneau’s in the 9th inning of Game 3? What a shame for him to make that error after an MVP type season.

So who advances to the World Series? It’s easy to justify either team. The Athletics were able to defeat Santana, the proven veteran, and Liriano, the rookie phenom, so why couldn’t they also beat Rogers and Verlander? On the other hand, the Tigers pitching shut down what many were calling “the greatest lineup ever assembled” rather handily. I believe the Tigers advance because of five (really four) factors: (1) Jim Leyland. (2) Curtis Granderson. (3) Comerica Park vs. McAfee Stadium. (4) A’s lack of a third pitcher.

National League

My two teams advanced, so I suppose that I am bound by my previous picks. This isn’t such a bad thing, but I’m a little uneasy. The Mets are still a very good team, but without Pedro, El Duque, and possibly now Cliff Floyd, it’s looking like the Cardinals might get a free pass. But first, what did we learn?

1 – Is there a bigger joke in the Major Leagues than the NL West? I was impressed that they got two teams into the postseason, but did either team have a shot? Neither one looked like they had played a big game all season long.

2 – Chris Young was the lone bright spot for the Padres, who really looked horrible against a team with no momentum. Young is going to win a Cy Young one day, especially if he can stay in San Diego and pitch at Petco Park.

3 – Speaking of individual performances, what about Albert Pujols? If he continues to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them through postseason after postseason, he will be considered one of the all-time greats.

4 – Every season, it seems that one team grabs the label of “Team of Destiny” and decides to own it. This season’s team is the Mets. Our pitchers are injured? We’ll just win. Everybody’s talking about the other team in our town? We’ll just win. Willie Randolph has this team playing to its full potential.

5 – Everybody on the Dodgers seemed to act like they didn’t belong in the playoffs. Even the fans had an air about them that said, “We really made it? What now?” There was one point in the last game when Grady Little went out to the mound, and the stadium went deathly silent. Everybody was waiting for something to get screwed up, and when you play afraid, you lose.

I picked the Mets, and I’m sticking to it. The Cardinals still have Pujols, but the Mets have a team, and that will be the difference. In my opinion, it’s not going to matter, since the National League is so much weaker than the American League on the whole. In the middle of the season, I decided that the Mets would be the only team that had a chance against an AL team. Once again, with their losses it won’t be a very competitive series. So you can see where my new World Series pick is going…Tigers over Mets. See you in a week or two.

Sorry for my lack of an NHL preview post. As I started to do research, I realized that I know nothing about any team except for the Stars, and I don’t even know much about that. This weekend I’m in class, so maybe next week I’ll tackle the Stars and some more baseball stuff. For now, though, there are this week’s NFL picks.

Last Week’s Record: 11-3 (.786)
Overall: 45-15 (.667)

Buffalo @ Chicago
It’s simple: Buffalo is improving, and J.P. Losman is starting to look like a real quarterback. But Chicago looks really good, and it’s not going to be enough. Look for Grossman to play really well again. This stretch of really weak schedule is going to give this offense a lot of confidence, which can be dangerous in the post-season. Pick: Chicago

Cleveland @ Carolina
Carolina gets the benefit of facing Cleveland as a warm-up for the Ravens in Week 6. I picked up Charlie Frye for my fantasy team because he’s a fairly consistent quarterback statistically, but a borderline fantasy quarterback does not a good team make. I’m looking at this game to see how Carolina does so I can handicap next week’s game. They’ve looked good since the return of Steve Smith, and I want to know if it’s for real. Pick: Carolina

Detroit @ Minnesota
I’m not as high on Minnesota as a lot of people seem to be, but they’re still worlds better than the lowly Lions. Roy Williams has been very vocal this week, so experience says they will lose. The Brad Johnson love-fest will continue, at least for the MNF crew, but fans won’t be able to justify it for long. Pick: Minnesota

Miami @ New England
When I first looked at the season, I was convinced that this would be a key match-up that could potentially decide the AFC East. Now, it’s looking like this will be a blowout. Miami has a chance because there defense hasn’t been all that bad, and Tom Brady has no receivers, but Daunte and the boys don’t seem to have a shot. Pick: New England

St. Louis @ Green Bay
Here’s what you need to know about this match-up: St. Louis has eight interceptions (er, “gunslings”) through four games, and Brett Favre hasn’t lost his job yet. I don’t think it’s going to be too much longer before Aaron Rodgers gets his shot. If St. Louis can be effective with their run game, they should dominate the clock and the game. Pick: St. Louis

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Saints finish up their NFC South swing at home against the Bucs. At first glance, it’s easy to say that the Bucs will lose because they’ve got their back-up in. Please remember, though, that Chris Simms was the starter, and he was doing well. It’s obviously the system that’s working out for Tampa Bay quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Drew Brees is doing quite well, and the Saints will have a decided home field advantage. Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
I don’t think I know anybody who thinks Tennessee has a chance here. Vince Young, Kerry Collins, it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. Until somebody beats Indianapolis in a regular season game that matters (again, nobody has in the last 25 games), I will continue to pick them. Pick: Indianapolis

Washington @ NY Giants
The Giants have had two weeks to think about the load they dropped in Seattle. I don’t think it will be enough. Clinton Portis is getting his groove back, which opens up the field for Brunell. It’s tough for a team to come back after such a devastating loss, even after a bye week, and I can’t see Eli Manning pick up the team and carry them on his back. Pick: Washington

Kansas City @ Arizona
I’m not feeling Matt Leinart just yet. This game may be enough to prove the problem wasn’t Kurt Warner, but the offensive line. The Cardinals might give them a game, but they are going up against a very underrated defense. By the way, who would have thought that Damon Huard would do this well in place of Trent Green? Pick: Kansas City

NY Jets @ Jacksonville
Here are two teams on the rise that want to make a statement. Jacksonville had an impressive win against the Steelers two weeks ago, and New York almost pulled it off against Indy last week. This one should come down to the wire. I’m going with Jacksonville because of the home field advantage and questionable status of Laveranues Coles. Pick: Jacksonville

Oakland @ San Francisco
San Francisco is probably Oakland’s best chance to avoid the 0-16 season of ignominy that they seem to be destined for. San Francisco presents a relatively favorable match-up for the Raiders, but…it’s not going to happen. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas @ Philadelphia
A whole lot of ink has been wasted on T.O.’s return to Philly, creating a huge distraction from what ought to be a really good game between the top two teams in the NFC East. If distractions are a factor, I think they might bother Philly more. The entire team has to put up with this junk, and T.O. has always been able to handle criticism with a big game. All things being equal, I still think the Cowboys have an advantage. Westbrook isn’t going to be 100% (if he plays at all), and the Cowboys have what it takes to handle the Philly receivers. Pick: Dallas

Pittsburgh @ San Diego
I’ve gone back and forth on this game at least three times. These are great teams, but Roethlisberger has struggled, and Rivers hasn’t been tested. It’s tough to go against Cowher, because I don’t think Pittsburgh is a 1-3 team, but I believe that San Diego has the tools to take them out unless Big Ben plays out of his mind. Pick: San Diego

Baltimore @ Denver
It’s time for me to give Steve McNair some credit. Last week, I picked San Diego to win because I didn’t think McNair could get it done. Well, he did. I was wrong. Okay, now that we’ve got that out of the way, I don’t think McNair will get it done this week against the Broncos. The offensive line is way too suspect, and they haven’t been able to get the run game going. The defense is still very good, but not invincible. This team reminds me a lot of last year’s Bears. If the offense can score more than 14 points, they’ve got the win. Denver had a bye week to get ready, and you can bet that Mike Shanahan will try to control the clock and exploit some over-pursuit by the Ravens to wear them out in the thin air. Plummer has an anomalous game and the Broncos come out on top. Pick: Denver

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 4, I’m 4-0. Here’s the rundown:
Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee. W 45-14
Week 5: CAROLINA, vs. Cleveland.

It’s an amazing time for the sports fan. The NFL is at the quarter pole, hockey starts tomorrow, and the baseball playoffs get underway today. Also, there are several specific issues to address: Dusty Baker, Albert Haynesworth, and Tiger Woods. Did I mention that basketball’s not on the radar yet (and that’s a good thing)? I’m just kidding…sort of. I’ll try my best to have several posts over the next couple of days; lots of predictions, some recaps, and plenty of commentary. This post: MLB playoffs preview. I’ll look at the first round match-ups, and then predict winners all the way to the Series. I plan on posting between every round. Picks are in bold.

2006 First Round Match-ups

American League

Minnesota (96-66) vs. Oakland (93-69)

Let me put it simply: I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon that says that Oakland cannot win in the playoffs. They have no line-up, except for Frank Thomas, and one pitcher. Minnesota, on the other hand, is the hottest team in the league. They definitely have the pitching to get it done in the playoffs, they’re defensively sound, and they’re getting production from nearly every position.

Detroit (95-67) vs. New York (97-65)
Detroit had a very strong showing at the beginning of the season, but their recent slump hurts them. Additionally, their bullpen just won’t be enough. I’m not sold on Todd Jones. I just don’t think what the Tigers can come up with will be able to compete with the Yankees, who have few weaknesses. If a New York starter not named Wang can step up consistently and they get some help from the middle relief, it will be hard to stop them.

National League

San Diego (88-74) vs. St. Louis (83-78)
St. Louis comes into this thing in bad shape. They are reeling from that near-historic collapse, and their window of opportunity seems to be closing. This year’s surprise, San Diego, benefited from some strong trades this year, and that pitching staff could carry them. But, as long as St. Louis has Pujols, the window of opportunity is open. The Padre staff will have a lot to overcome here.

Los Angeles (88-74) vs. New York (97-65)
This is tough. The Mets blew away the rest of the National League this year, but news that Pedro’s out for the playoffs really hurts their chances. The Dodgers are riding a ton of second-half momentum and have tons of playoff experience. I feel like the winner of this series is going to take the pennant. In a short series, I’ll go with the talent.

Championship Series
AL
Minnesota over New York
NL
New York over St. Louis

World Series
Minnesota over New York