Just for Sport

This week I am starting what will hopefully become a Thursday tradition on this site by revealing my picks for this week’s NFL games. I don’t mess around with the spread, just who’s going to win. If it goes well, and my brothers don’t use this information against me in our Pick ‘Em league (which I am already dominating), it will become a weekly feature. Enjoy the picks, and let me know what you think.

Last Week: 13-1 (.929)
Through Week 3: 34-12 (.739)

Arizona @ Atlanta
This game is a case of two teams that are reeling. Arizona had all kinds of unreasonable expectations placed upon them before the season started, and they had a really tough loss this week. Kurt Warner’s play has caused a quarterback controversy, and Denny Green apparently doesn’t have any idea about how to handle it. Atlanta’s got it’s own problems. They were really set up to fail last Monday – and they did. It wasn’t just fate on the Saints side though; Vick and the boys contributed to their own demise. Vick has been characteristically inconsistent, and when the running game can’t pick them up, it’s game over. I really believe that the Falcons will be able to bounce back from a tough week better than the inexperienced Cardinals can. Pick: Atlanta

Dallas @ Tennessee
Another game, another quarterback controversy. The fact is that the Titans don’t have much chance of beating anybody right now, regardless of who’s under center. Kerry Collins gives them the best chance of winning right now, but not against the Cowboys, distractions aside. On a related note, I cannot believe the conclusions that the media was ready to jump to on Wednesday. When did news reporting agencies become rumor mills? Go to the primary source! Enough soapbox, on to the next game. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis @ New York Jets
Eric Mangini has done great things with the Jets, and Chad Pennington is playing out of his mind, but I have a rule: Don’t bet against the Colts during the regular season in a game that counts unless they give you a reason not to do so. In their last 24 games that mattered for standings or playoff seeding, Indianapolis has won all 24. They’re clicking on all cylinders, and the Jets aren’t going to be a team that can stand in their way. Pick: Indianapolis

Miami @ Houston
I could have sworn to you that Miami would have busted out last week. Several national columnists ripped Culpepper before the Dolphins took on the Titans, so I fully expected Daunte and the boys to come out and make a statement. Instead, they barely got past the hapless Titans. On the other side, I think it’s great for the Texans that they have a new coach. If Capers had called out the team in the media, it would have been same-old, same-old. Maybe with some new blood the veterans will start to pay attention. It may not seem like it, but I really think Houston is on the way up. So what happens when a bad team that is on the way up hosts a mediocre team that is on the way down? That’s right – upset. Pick: Houston

Minnesota @ Buffalo
There’s no doubt that Minnesota played Chicago, a very good team, well last week. What I do doubt is the MNF crew’s blind faith in Brad Johnson. Yes, he’s a solid veteran. He still doesn’t have anybody to throw to. I’m not exactly a J.P. Losman disciple, but the Bills did put up 475 total yards on the Jets last week. If they can hang on to the ball, they should prevail at home. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans @ Carolina
I can’t believe that the Saints are the only undefeated team in the NFC South. I had some serious doubts going into the season about Drew Brees in New Orleans, but he’s proven himself. I have to say this, because I’m so biased against Reggie Bush it makes me sick to listen to any of the talking heads worship him: Stop saying that he’s doing a great job! He’s averaging 41.7 yards/game on the ground. I could elaborate for several paragraphs; lucky for you I’m using discretion here. Now, about Carolina: I still can’t figure them out. Steve Smith’s mere presence on the field makes them infinitely better. New Orleans has been great, but playing defense against Charlie Frye, Brett Favre with no receivers, and Mike Vick is way different that playing defense against Jake Delhomme with a healthy Steve Smith on one side and Keyshawn on the other. Pick: Carolina

San Diego @ Baltimore
This is seriously the second-hardest game for me to pick this week. San Diego hasn’t had to do anything but run the ball to win, but Steve McNair hasn’t exactly been brilliant either. Both defenses match up really well against the other teams’ strengths. I’m going to attempt to take the easy way out and go with the team coming off the bye. San Diego’s extra week of rest may not exactly be crucial at this point in the season, but they do have one thing going for them: Baltimore only has two games of tape. Nobody, including the Ravens and maybe even the Chargers, knows what Philip Rivers can do. McNair’s been around for years, and Schottenheimer is great at schemes. Go with the bye! Pick: San Diego

San Francisco @ Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs used to be the Phoenix Suns of the NFL – lots of scoring, absolutely no defense. With Herm Edwards in charge and a new defense, that mentality is a thing of the past. No longer does the team have to rely entirely on the offense, which is a good thing when you have to start your backup quarterback. Damon Huard has been fairly solid, and he has the added benefit of handing the ball off to Larry Johnson. It’s tempting to go with the 49ers, a much improved team, as an upset, but key injuries and the fact that this game will be at Arrowhead makes the Chiefs too much of an obstacle. Pick: Chiefs

Detroit @ St. Louis
The Lions should no doubt be doing better than they have been so far this season. The key? I think it’s Kevin Jones. Detroit’s inability to run has put way too much pressure on Jon Kitna and the defense. St. Louis’ Front Four, on the other hand, has proven itself worthy of the all the hype. The Rams seem poised to take this one, but the offense must start converting in the red zone. Look for a rude homecoming welcome for Mike Martz this week. Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland @ Oakland
These are the games you hate to get stuck watching on Sunday: two pictures of football ineptitude facing off in what can only be a huge mess. This one will probably come down to who makes the least mistakes, and I can’t really think of a good reason to pick either team to win. I’m going to follow my instinct and go with the Browns, who played Baltimore close, over the Raiders, who haven’t played anybody close. Pick: Browns

Jacksonville @ Washington
The Jaguars have been on a rollercoaster. They handled the defending Super Bowl champions on Monday Night Football, only to get beaten by the division rival Colts again. On the positive side, it took a great special teams play for the Colts to pull it off, so the Jags should really feel good about themselves. Washington’s also feeling pretty good after putting away the Texans with Mark Brunell’s record-breaking performance. Both teams have something to prove and expectations to fill, so this should be a good one to watch. Washington should have a slight edge as the home team, but I think people still underrate Jacksonville. They are on the verge of being mentioned with the elite teams of the league, and it seems that they’ve figured out how to play those teams well. On the other hand, Washington is the kind of team that will beat the teams it is supposed to and maybe give the others a fight. I like Washington this year, but not against Jacksonville just yet. Pick: Jacksonville

New England @ Cincinnati
A good portion of Marvin Lewis’ week has been spent dealing with discipline problems, which is never good for a team. For an elite-status team, though, a DUI on a player that was suspended anyway shouldn’t have that much of an effect in a Week 4 game. Because of their success in recent years and even more recent vulnerability on both sides of the ball, New England seems like a team that other teams gear up to play for to make a statement. This makes their schedule that much harder, and I can’t see Cincinnati letting this one get away at home. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ Chicago
Here it is: The battle for NFC supremacy. Chicago started its season by beating each of its division foes, and Seattle, despite an ugly first week, proved that it still belongs up at the top of the conference. Both teams are riding a lot of momentum; Chicago from a 4th quarter turnover and subsequent improbable drive led by Rex Grossman, and Seattle from dropping 35 in the first half against the Giants. The defenses will undoubtedly play prominently, and there will be plenty of excitement from start to finish. I was inclined to pick Seattle until it came out that Shaun Alexander would not be playing. If Rex Grossman can remain confident and take care of his business, the Bears defense should be able to stop Seattle’s one-dimensional offense. Pick: Chicago

Green Bay @ Philadelphia
I have been surprised by the efficiency Philadelphia has played with on the offensive side of the ball thus far. They will face a weak and inexperienced Green Bay defense, and that will be the difference. Brett Favre looked great last week, and that’s good for him. I don’t expect him to be smiling and jumping up and down on a consistent basis, however. Philadelphia will play well under that Monday Night Lights. Pick: Philadelphia

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 3, I’m 3-0. Here’s the rundown:

Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10.
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee.