Just for Sport

This week I am starting what will hopefully become a Thursday tradition on this site by revealing my picks for this week’s NFL games. I don’t mess around with the spread, just who’s going to win. If it goes well, and my brothers don’t use this information against me in our Pick ‘Em league (which I am already dominating), it will become a weekly feature. Enjoy the picks, and let me know what you think.

Last Week: 13-1 (.929)
Through Week 3: 34-12 (.739)

Arizona @ Atlanta
This game is a case of two teams that are reeling. Arizona had all kinds of unreasonable expectations placed upon them before the season started, and they had a really tough loss this week. Kurt Warner’s play has caused a quarterback controversy, and Denny Green apparently doesn’t have any idea about how to handle it. Atlanta’s got it’s own problems. They were really set up to fail last Monday – and they did. It wasn’t just fate on the Saints side though; Vick and the boys contributed to their own demise. Vick has been characteristically inconsistent, and when the running game can’t pick them up, it’s game over. I really believe that the Falcons will be able to bounce back from a tough week better than the inexperienced Cardinals can. Pick: Atlanta

Dallas @ Tennessee
Another game, another quarterback controversy. The fact is that the Titans don’t have much chance of beating anybody right now, regardless of who’s under center. Kerry Collins gives them the best chance of winning right now, but not against the Cowboys, distractions aside. On a related note, I cannot believe the conclusions that the media was ready to jump to on Wednesday. When did news reporting agencies become rumor mills? Go to the primary source! Enough soapbox, on to the next game. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis @ New York Jets
Eric Mangini has done great things with the Jets, and Chad Pennington is playing out of his mind, but I have a rule: Don’t bet against the Colts during the regular season in a game that counts unless they give you a reason not to do so. In their last 24 games that mattered for standings or playoff seeding, Indianapolis has won all 24. They’re clicking on all cylinders, and the Jets aren’t going to be a team that can stand in their way. Pick: Indianapolis

Miami @ Houston
I could have sworn to you that Miami would have busted out last week. Several national columnists ripped Culpepper before the Dolphins took on the Titans, so I fully expected Daunte and the boys to come out and make a statement. Instead, they barely got past the hapless Titans. On the other side, I think it’s great for the Texans that they have a new coach. If Capers had called out the team in the media, it would have been same-old, same-old. Maybe with some new blood the veterans will start to pay attention. It may not seem like it, but I really think Houston is on the way up. So what happens when a bad team that is on the way up hosts a mediocre team that is on the way down? That’s right – upset. Pick: Houston

Minnesota @ Buffalo
There’s no doubt that Minnesota played Chicago, a very good team, well last week. What I do doubt is the MNF crew’s blind faith in Brad Johnson. Yes, he’s a solid veteran. He still doesn’t have anybody to throw to. I’m not exactly a J.P. Losman disciple, but the Bills did put up 475 total yards on the Jets last week. If they can hang on to the ball, they should prevail at home. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans @ Carolina
I can’t believe that the Saints are the only undefeated team in the NFC South. I had some serious doubts going into the season about Drew Brees in New Orleans, but he’s proven himself. I have to say this, because I’m so biased against Reggie Bush it makes me sick to listen to any of the talking heads worship him: Stop saying that he’s doing a great job! He’s averaging 41.7 yards/game on the ground. I could elaborate for several paragraphs; lucky for you I’m using discretion here. Now, about Carolina: I still can’t figure them out. Steve Smith’s mere presence on the field makes them infinitely better. New Orleans has been great, but playing defense against Charlie Frye, Brett Favre with no receivers, and Mike Vick is way different that playing defense against Jake Delhomme with a healthy Steve Smith on one side and Keyshawn on the other. Pick: Carolina

San Diego @ Baltimore
This is seriously the second-hardest game for me to pick this week. San Diego hasn’t had to do anything but run the ball to win, but Steve McNair hasn’t exactly been brilliant either. Both defenses match up really well against the other teams’ strengths. I’m going to attempt to take the easy way out and go with the team coming off the bye. San Diego’s extra week of rest may not exactly be crucial at this point in the season, but they do have one thing going for them: Baltimore only has two games of tape. Nobody, including the Ravens and maybe even the Chargers, knows what Philip Rivers can do. McNair’s been around for years, and Schottenheimer is great at schemes. Go with the bye! Pick: San Diego

San Francisco @ Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs used to be the Phoenix Suns of the NFL – lots of scoring, absolutely no defense. With Herm Edwards in charge and a new defense, that mentality is a thing of the past. No longer does the team have to rely entirely on the offense, which is a good thing when you have to start your backup quarterback. Damon Huard has been fairly solid, and he has the added benefit of handing the ball off to Larry Johnson. It’s tempting to go with the 49ers, a much improved team, as an upset, but key injuries and the fact that this game will be at Arrowhead makes the Chiefs too much of an obstacle. Pick: Chiefs

Detroit @ St. Louis
The Lions should no doubt be doing better than they have been so far this season. The key? I think it’s Kevin Jones. Detroit’s inability to run has put way too much pressure on Jon Kitna and the defense. St. Louis’ Front Four, on the other hand, has proven itself worthy of the all the hype. The Rams seem poised to take this one, but the offense must start converting in the red zone. Look for a rude homecoming welcome for Mike Martz this week. Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland @ Oakland
These are the games you hate to get stuck watching on Sunday: two pictures of football ineptitude facing off in what can only be a huge mess. This one will probably come down to who makes the least mistakes, and I can’t really think of a good reason to pick either team to win. I’m going to follow my instinct and go with the Browns, who played Baltimore close, over the Raiders, who haven’t played anybody close. Pick: Browns

Jacksonville @ Washington
The Jaguars have been on a rollercoaster. They handled the defending Super Bowl champions on Monday Night Football, only to get beaten by the division rival Colts again. On the positive side, it took a great special teams play for the Colts to pull it off, so the Jags should really feel good about themselves. Washington’s also feeling pretty good after putting away the Texans with Mark Brunell’s record-breaking performance. Both teams have something to prove and expectations to fill, so this should be a good one to watch. Washington should have a slight edge as the home team, but I think people still underrate Jacksonville. They are on the verge of being mentioned with the elite teams of the league, and it seems that they’ve figured out how to play those teams well. On the other hand, Washington is the kind of team that will beat the teams it is supposed to and maybe give the others a fight. I like Washington this year, but not against Jacksonville just yet. Pick: Jacksonville

New England @ Cincinnati
A good portion of Marvin Lewis’ week has been spent dealing with discipline problems, which is never good for a team. For an elite-status team, though, a DUI on a player that was suspended anyway shouldn’t have that much of an effect in a Week 4 game. Because of their success in recent years and even more recent vulnerability on both sides of the ball, New England seems like a team that other teams gear up to play for to make a statement. This makes their schedule that much harder, and I can’t see Cincinnati letting this one get away at home. Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ Chicago
Here it is: The battle for NFC supremacy. Chicago started its season by beating each of its division foes, and Seattle, despite an ugly first week, proved that it still belongs up at the top of the conference. Both teams are riding a lot of momentum; Chicago from a 4th quarter turnover and subsequent improbable drive led by Rex Grossman, and Seattle from dropping 35 in the first half against the Giants. The defenses will undoubtedly play prominently, and there will be plenty of excitement from start to finish. I was inclined to pick Seattle until it came out that Shaun Alexander would not be playing. If Rex Grossman can remain confident and take care of his business, the Bears defense should be able to stop Seattle’s one-dimensional offense. Pick: Chicago

Green Bay @ Philadelphia
I have been surprised by the efficiency Philadelphia has played with on the offensive side of the ball thus far. They will face a weak and inexperienced Green Bay defense, and that will be the difference. Brett Favre looked great last week, and that’s good for him. I don’t expect him to be smiling and jumping up and down on a consistent basis, however. Philadelphia will play well under that Monday Night Lights. Pick: Philadelphia

Guaranteed Pick of the Week:
In this section I will pick the team that has the greatest chance of winning that week. The catch: I can only pick a team once for the whole season. Through Week 3, I’m 3-0. Here’s the rundown:

Week 1: SEATTLE, vs. Detroit. W 9-6
Week 2: INDIANAPOLIS, vs. Houston. W 43-24
Week 3: MIAMI, vs. Tennessee. W 13-10.
Week 4: DALLAS, vs. Tennessee.

As the title might suggest, I hate getting wrapped up in all of the New York-Boston hoopla. Let’s face it - the rivalry is overrated, and while I have been well-documented in my hatred of the Yankees, I have never subscribed to the school that says if you hate the Yankees, you must cheer for the Sox. The Red Sox have turned into the Yankees, and I honestly don’t see how a card-carrying Yankee hater can root for them. Nevertheless, whenever the two teams get together, I generally root for the lesser of the two evils. Today, though, I’m (gasp) rooting for the Yankees.

Why? Because of David Freakin’ Ortiz. I’m sick of sportswriters (especially ones that write for a company based in New England) writing things like, “Anybody who’s watched a Red Sox game this year knows who the MVP is.” Let me tell you, watching Boston play doesn’t really define MVP for me, unless you’re talking about Jason Varitek, the one player who can spark that team. An MVP doesn’t throw his team under the bus by saying, “Come hit in this line-up and see what kind of numbers you get.” So the rest of the team doesn’t do it for you? What about Manny, your best friend, who has hit behind you all year? The Red Sox have such a ridiculous payroll; it’s absurd to insinuate that the rest of the line-up isn’t up to snuff. Maybe Ortiz should switch places with Jermaine Dye or Magglio Ordonez or Frank Thomas and see what his statistics look like. I know one statistic that would stay the same: .000, as in Fielding Percentage.

Any part-time player that would be rendered useless by switching leagues doesn’t even deserve consideration for Most Valuable Player. A player is only valuable as long as he is on the field. Anybody who takes the field helps his team for 27 outs, plus however many at-bats he gets, plus however many hits/walk the other team gets. If every team averages 9 hits/walks per game (a very conservative estimate), then a full-time player is on the field for 40 of the game’s 72 plate appearances. A DH is “on the field” (Consider this: if a designated hitter doesn’t reach base in a game, he will never have set foot inside the foul lines) for 4 of those 72 plate appearances.

Maybe David Ortiz should spend all the time he spends on the bench considering a different method for winning the MVP he apparently wants so much: stop complaining about reporters and other players and pick up your glove.

Division Champs:
NFC: Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Dallas
AFC: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, Miami

Wild Cards:
NFC: Tampa Bay, NY Giants
AFC: Pittsburgh, San Diego

Award Predictions:
Coach of the Year: Nick Saban
MVP: Marvin Harrison
Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
Offensive ROY: Mike Bell
Defensive ROY: Haloti Ngata
NFC Champ: Carolina
AFC Champ: Indianapolis
Super Bowl Champ: Indianapolis

Off-the-wall Predictions:
Most Improved Team: Arizona
Biggest Breakout Player: Philip Rivers
Biggest Bust: Vince Young
NFC Offensive POY: Shaun Alexander
NFC Defensive POY: Julius Peppers
AFC Offensive POY: Marvin Harrison
AFC Defensive POY: Shawne Merriman
First Coach Fired: Andy Reid
First Quarterback Benched: Kurt Warner
First Kicker Fired: Jay Feely
Next Year’s #1 Pick: New Orleans
#1 Fantasy QB: Carson Palmer
#1 Fantasy RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
#1 Fantasy WR: Steve Smith
#1 Fantasy TE: Randy McMichael
#1 Fantasy K: John Kasay
#1 Fantasy DEF: Chicago
One Devastating Injury that will happen: Deion Branch will join his new team (or go back to the Patriots), have 1 or 2 big games, then get injured for the season.

I am prepared to defend any and all positions, so come with it.

So I watched the Cowboys game last night. A few of us had a good time poking fun at the second-rate announcing team, etc. The best moment, though, had to be when the Idiot Kicker got up to win the game in overtime. I, being a bandwagon Colts fan, made a few disparaging comments about the last time ol’ Vandy was on the field (last year’s playoffs). I jokingly said, “I’m going to start calling him, ‘Wide Right.’” At that very instant, he pushed it right. We went crazy. He would go on to repeat the feat later on, and the Cowboys ended up tying. Sure, it was the preseason, but my Cowboy crazy friends were upset. The Idiot Kicker had stricken again.

Fast forward to this morning. I’m on espn.com watching the tiny little video they have in the corner, (I have no cable or anything right this second) and somebody’s interviewing Liquorface. The following exchange occurred:

Reporter: How long are you going to stew about these missed field goals?

(I’m secretly hoping that he breaks into tears, just like last year.)

Wide Right: I’m not going to stew about it; I’m just going to go out and kick a hundred field goals a day until I figure out what went wrong.

Whoa! You mean to tell me that professional kickers - people that kick a ball for hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars a year - only kick 100 field goals a day?!? And that’s when he’s having problems and trying to fix them!

Football fans get so upset with kickers sometimes. Seriously, when it’s your only job, you should do it well blablabla…how many times has that been said on Sunday afternoon? I think these guys are taking advantage of everybody. Let’s see…got a big game this weekend. It’s possible that my teammates will sacrifice their bodies, beat each other up for 59 minutes, and then the whole thing will come down to my ability to kick a ball. I think I’ll kick about 50 times or so and call it a day. Gotta be home when the exterminator comes over, and there’s some cleaning to do…

Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. However, I think it points to something that a lot of football fans actually believe, but won’t admit because they’re afraid of change. The kicking game (at least the field goal part) has got to go. This is the one point I agree with Skip Bayless on. I understand why the kicking game is the way it is. If you can’t get into the end zone, at least you get rewarded with three points (assuming your kicker doesn’t boot the ball into Ohio. No, I’m not going to leave it alone.). But why are we so intent on rewarding mediocrity? Shouldn’t a defense that makes a stand in the red zone get more than, “Well, we limited them to three points.” This argument doesn’t hold just a ton of water, but there’s still an element of truth to it. If there was no “celebration of mediocrity,” as I like to call it, there just wouldn’t be enough variation in the point system. If a team wins solely on the number of touchdowns they score, why not value them at one point each?

Instead, I would like to propose an alternative that still rewards a team for marching down the field, but doesn’t rely on one man’s ability to kick a ball far and straight. The first step is to identify a threshold, such as the opposing team’s 35 yardline. If the team on offense passes this threshold, they have a choice to make on fourth down. In the past, the choice would be to go for the first down or kick a field goal. Under the new system, a team could choose to attempt the “four-point conversion,” where the ball is placed on the 5 yardline and the offense has one opportunity to get the ball into the endzone. The try would be worth four points because (1) it would be successful less often, and (2) because teams would be forced to try a two-point conversion after touchdowns, making scores in multiples of seven virtually obsolete.

I understand that this would drastically change the game and its strategy. The team’s punter is probably going to be the kickoff starter, making kickoffs more interesting. As said before, two-point conversions would be mandatory. I believe that it makes the two-minute drill much more interesting. Defenses will have to decide how to guard the 35-yard threshold. Do you load up the line when a team gets close to defend against the four-point possibility, leaving you vulnerable to the more valuable touchdown? Entire new formations would be developed on both sides of the ball to try to adapt to these new, packed with pressure situations. Best of all, a game will never be decided by an Idiot Kicker who got liquored up and forgot where the goalpost was.

There are probably problems with my system. For instance, a 25 yard field goal is easier than a 50 yard field goal, so maybe the ball should be placed in different places close to the goal line based on where the offense stalled on the drive. Maybe my point system is a little simplistic and idealistic. Maybe I’m bitter because of last year’s playoffs. Maybe football fans like having a scapegoat such as the Idiot Kicker when they know their team never should have been in a situation to send the game into overtime (There’s another rule in professional football that has to be changed. Ugh. Take a cue from the college game). Maybe you’re too opposed to change. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s better than the one we’ve got now. You might not agree with me yet, but I think you will in Week 15 when your team’s playoff chances are doused by its own Idiot Kicker, who decided that 100 field goals a day was just too much for him.