The ‘S’ Word: Thoughts Before Reading “Game of Shadows”

26 Apr 2006

As a baseball fan, I have something at stake in this whole steroids thing. I’ve always felt that. For the last two or three years, it seems that every time I turn on the TV, somebody’s giving their take. I hate it. Stop talking about steroids, I’ll say, and talk about the games. I know I’m probably not alone in this. But all along the way, I’ve always known that something was at stake; I just didn’t know what.

That probably explains my recent intrigue about the subject. Whenever my friends and I get together and watch baseball, the topic always comes to Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Jose Canseco, and the rest of the alleged steroid users. Some of us are more consistent than others. I usually end up saying that all of those people need asterisks next to whatever records they have, or more preferably, that they be removed completely. My friend Jeremiah openly boos Canseco, but pledges his blind allegiance to Bonds based on the fact that A) he plays for the Giants, B) he had Lasik surgery, C) he was good before, so what does it matter?, and D) Ty Cobb is in the Hall of Fame, so obviously integrity doesn’t matter anyway. I would refute all four of these arguments, but I digress.

The point is that as a baseball fan, you have to deal with Barry Bonds (and all the other alleged steroid users) on some level. There are several reasons for this. One is that Bonds currently holds the single season home run record, which for a long time was widely considered the most sacred record in the American sports world, and certainly in baseball. He’s also, at this writing, 45 home runs from tying Hank Aaron for the career record. There’s always the Hall of Fame thing, but HOF voters will likely set a precedent in a year or two when Mark McGwire’s name comes up for consideration. Finally, how you deal with Barry Bonds will dictate how you deal with steroids on the whole. My friend Reno says we should require steroids use in baseball so that the entertainment value will be higher, but obviously this is a perversion. The appeal of baseball (and all sports) is that there are humans like you and me performing these acts of talent, skill, and strength.

On some level, you have to agree that the use of steroids is bad for baseball, and I think most people do. The variable is the response people have to their apparent abuse. Several sportswriters I have read want to take the easy way out and label certain years as “The Steroid Era.” That way, even if there’s no asterisk, fans and others will know that certain records are basically illegitimate because they were achieved during a certain time period, sort of how basketball has created its own set of records that coincide with “The Shot Clock Era.” I have several problems with this. My initial reaction is that such a moniker would take away from baseball what other sports don’t have: meaningful statistics and records. Baseball doesn’t need asterisks, real or understood. When Maris passed Ruth in ’61, there was a huge debate because Maris got to play in more games than Ruth did. The general consensus was that you have to have consistency in the record book. A record is a record is a record. That’s why attempts to label eras (e.g. “The Dead Ball Era,” etc.) has never really caught on with baseball fans, and it’s also why baseball has a reputation for being the only sport with meaningful records. The so-called Steroids Era threatens all of that. Not only does it threaten the unique-ness of the sport, it throws a blanket over all of the players that never did steroids, which is why you can’t go around calling all the records that took place in a certain time period illegitimate. The cases have to be treated individually. That’s what makes Bonds’ case so sticky. He has polarized people. There are those that believe the media is too hard on him, and there are those that believe he manipulates the media and cries foul against them to gain sympathy. He’s always been a jerk and treated baseball as a business rather than a game, which won’t gain any favor with baseball purists. The opinions on him are so wide and varied that it seems that 98% of what you hear about him is suspect. This is why I have decided to read the book, “Game of Shadows,” by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams. Jeremiah told me without reading it that it’s trash because it’s written by journalists from the San Francisco Chronicle, which he believes to be notorious for ripping Bonds. I happen to hold investigative journalism in high regard, however, so I have to admit that I’m going to be more likely to believe what it says. As a matter of fact, I’d rather read a book written by reporters from San Francisco than from across the country. The fact remains that Bonds is a god to San Francisco fans, so it’s not like these guys have something to gain from their constituency by contrivances.

In any case, these are my pre-conceived notions that I have before reading the book. Hopefully reading it will help me gain more insight and a better idea of how to treat the entire situation. I will report back when I’m done.

Concerning the Polls

16 Apr 2006

Note: This post originally appeared on February 8, 2005.

This afternoon I got back to my room from class and turned on one of my favorite TV shows, Pardon the Interruption. If you don’t know (and you should), PTI is a genius show where two guys, Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser, sit around and argue about sports. This is truly near and dear to my heart. Anyway, one of the issues today (as it is many days) was the national poll for college basketball. There are currently two undefeated teams in NCAA basketball, The University of Illinois and Boston College. The problem is that while Illinois is ranked #1 and has been for a while, BC is still ranked #4, behind two seemingly better, but not undefeated teams. Of course, anybody who follows sports at all knows that there has been a whole lot of trouble for college football concerning the national poll and the BCS system. Because basketball has a tournament, it’s not a big deal to a lot of people, but I think the poll in basketball is just as flawed and needs attention.

I have a simple solution. And please don’t misunderstand me, I am not taking up Boston College’s cause. I don’t give a rip about them. As a matter of fact, they are tied with Notre Dame 20-20 as I write this. No, this is a matter of principle. Allow me, if you will, to set up a hypothetical situation for you. A certain team in the NFL, say, the Browns, goes 9-7 in a given year. They never won by more than 10 points, and they only beat a winning team twice. All of their losses are blow-outs. Then take another team, say the Bengals, goes 8-8 in the same season. They beat the Browns twice, but a few heartbreaking losses and a hard schedule gave them the .500 record. The question is, who goes to the play-offs first? The answer is always the Browns. It doesn’t matter how much the sportswriters like the coach; it doesn’t matter if the quarterback is cordial to the media; it doesn’t even matter about the strength of schedule. 9-7 always beats 8-8. That’s why all college teams should play the same number of games, and rankings should be based on record. All undefeated teams go automatically to the top, followed by one-loss teams, etc. It’s really not that hard. Then, let the people vote on teams with the exact same record. Under my system, the current top 5 in NCAA basketball are as follows (with actual ranking in parentheses):

1. Illinois 23-0 (1)
2. Boston College 20-0 (4)
3. Kansas 18-1 (3)
4. Syracuse 21-2 (7)
5. North Carolina 19-2 (2)

As you can see, there is an apparent discrepancy. Under my system, University of the Pacific (18-2) would be way higher than the 24 they are now. Before you argue based on strength of schedule, let me remind about our humble little example. 9-7 always beats 8-8. Every time. Why? Because WE PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! It doesn’t matter how good you are if you can’t win games. North Carolina doesn’t deserve to be #2 if 2 teams have already beat them. As far as I’m concerned, there are at least two teams that are better than UNC, and that was proven on the court, not in some reporter’s notebook.

If I Were the Head of ESPN…

Note: This post originally appeared on September 13, 2005.

If you know me, you know that I love ESPN. However, Jeremiah and I made the mistake of watching poker during lunch today, and I realized that there are several things about the greatest cable channel of all that could still be fixed. If you haven’t figured it out, I like lists, so of course today’s topic involves one. Because I am often a negative person, you will find that several of these items contain a hint of negativity (get rid of this specific person, etc.). Nevertheless, it’s my list and not yours, so I’ll do what I want. Here it is:

10. Get rid of Norm Chad. Why is it necessary to have a “color commentary” for poker? He’s not funny, and he always pretends to know something he doesn’t. Plus, he’s ugly. Says my friend Jeremiah, “I want to kick Norm Chad in the junk.” I probably wouldn’t pass up the opportunity either.
9. Make fantasy football on espn.com work! Half of the time it doesn’t. Anybody else see a problem?
8. No more dabbling with reality TV. I’d Do Anything is just dumb. Any other attempt they’ve made to appeal to this audience just hasn’t worked.
7. Bring back Playmakers! So what if it was controversial? It’s up to the NFL to maintain its image, not ESPN.
6. ESPN Hollywood. Are you serious? This is worse than the TV Guide Channel, which as a pretty serious allegation.
5. Lose Skip Bayless. He does not know what he’s talking about. If I had a quarter for every time he said something stupid on national television, I’d be able to buy a yacht. A big one.
4. Consolidate with Fox Sports Network. Sure, this would basically create a monopoly in the television sports industry, but when it’s free, who does it hurt? Think about it: the superior television station carries all regional sports too. Yes!
3. Bring Cheap Seats over to regular ESPN, rather than ESPN Classic. They could show reruns during the day, in lieu of NFL Films or reruns of Billiards.
2. Bring Craig Kilborn back! He’s jobless, right? Sportscenter hasn’t been the same since he and that one fat guy left.
1. Chris Berman has got to go. One website lists the following things that are wrong with him:
Inventor of stupid nicknames that amuse you if you are ten, or stoned.
Has been on ESPN since the dawn of time.
Suffers from premature senility, routinely forgetting where players play and what their names are.
Apparently gets his sportsjackets by beating up hobos.
ABC made him wear a toupee when doing MNF halftimes, but didn’t make him wear a mask.
Occasionally broadcasts baseball even though he hasn’t paid attention to the sport since 1985.
Anchors ESPN’s interminable and constantly repeated Home Run Derby coverage.
Inventor of ESPN anchor self-promotion.
I would be the first to say that this is not an exhaustive list, but it gets the point. If ESPN were to fire Berman, I would forgive it of everything else I have listed here.

Why David Ortiz shouldn’t be the MVP - and why I will always cheer for a National League Team

Note: This post originally appeared on October 3, 2005.

The Designated Hitter. I hate it. I don’t understand it. I don’t understand the average baseball fan’s reaction to it, either. I found the following two questions in separate polls on espn.com tonight:

Which would you rather see in person?
A batter hit four home runs in one game.
A pitcher throw a no-hitter.

What should baseball do with the DH?
Keep things the way they are
Get rid of it in the AL
Add it for the NL

The responses are as follows:
88.8% of those polled said that they would rather see a pitcher throw a no-hitter than a batter hit four home runs in one game. However, 47.5% said that the DH situation should stay the way it is. A full 18.8% said that it should be added in the National League, leaving only 33.3% of us who would abolish this abomination in the American League. If so many people want to see good pitching, why is the designated hitter suddenly okay? Is it because we’re sentimental and like seeing guys like Frank Thomas continue to play? If you can’t play in the field, you shouldn’t be in the batter’s box. If I were an American League manager, I’d make my pitcher hit anyway.

I could rant about this for a while, but to keep it short, I choose to quote Ray Romano: “The designated hitter is baaaad for baseball. Nine guys field, nine guys bat; that’s the way it is.” Bud Selig has pulled many stunts in recent years to try and leave his mark on the game as the commissioner. I can think of no better way to accomplish this than by abolishing the worst rule in all of sports.

I leave you with this link for your enjoyment.

I Don’t Care About Your HS Video

Note: This post originally appeared on January 3, 2006.

Last night, ESPN did a special piece about a highlight video that Reggie Bush’s high school put together. Ugh.

A couple of weeks ago on ESPN Radio, Colin Cowsherd (who is a typical ESPN employee - cheers shamelessly for any team from New York, LA, Chicago, and Boston and never gives anybody else a chance) was raving about how the Rose Bowl was already decided when he stopped and declared that in his opinion, this year’s USC team is the probably the greatest of all time. I almost called in. Thankfully, somebody else did. The caller from Houston told Cowsherd that Bush won the Heisman because ESPN is USC’s number one fan. Cowsherd, of course, cut off the caller right away and got very defensive and angry. “We just report the most intriguing stories!” he thundered. I laughed for probably ten minutes. It’s so funny that a team as good as Texas gets almost no chance from anybody to win this game. Mack Brown said it very well himself today in a press conference: “I would like to thank all of the members of the media. I don’t even have to make a pep talk.” Here are 5 reasons Texas will beat USC tomorrow night:

1) Reggie Bush isn’t as good as everybody makes him out to be. I compare him to Ki Jana Carter. He’s great when he’s around people who can’t tackle, but he won’t make it in the pros. Every single one of his highlight runs have come against poor tackling teams. Every single one of those runs gets at most five yards against a team that will tackle well. This leads me to my next point…

2) Texas’ defense is way better than any other defense USC has seen all year. This is one fact that the talking heads will actually concede, and I think the fact that USC hasn’t really been tested hurts them. You can’t rely on converting 4th and 9 versus this team.

3) USC’s defense is suspect, and Texas has all the weapons to beat them. As a matter of fact, I’d have to agree with Vince Young that position for position, UT’s offense is superb to USC’s. The two O-lines are easily the best two in the nation. Vince is better than Leinart. Charles can play with Bush. Tweedie, Sweed, Pittman, and Strong are much better weapons than what USC offers.

4) UT only really had one close game this year (Ohio State). There were a couple that were close for a half or so (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State), but ultimately they dominated those games as well. USC had trouble with Notre Dame, Fresno State, and lest we forget, Arizona State. The analysts will tell you that USC is simply a second-half team that lowers its intensity when it meets a lesser opponent. I see weakness. Here are the results for these three teams in bowl games: Arizona State barely survived Rutgers, 45-40 in the Insight Bowl. Fresno State lost to Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl. Tulsa isn’t exactly known for its offensive prowess, but they outgained Fresno State 430-421 despite only holding the ball for 21:40. Kind of puts Reggie Bush’s big day in perspective, eh? Finally, there’s Notre Dame. They got whipped by an Ohio State team that gave Texas everything they had earlier in the season. Keep in mind, Notre Dame was the team on the other side of the “epic” game between so-called giants. Notre Dame is one of the most overrated teams of 2005, yet it took an illegal push for USC to beat them. Texas has played better all year long; is there any reason to doubt that tomorrow’s game will be any different?

5) Matt Leinart is bored. I’m all about athletes finishing school, but if you watch the interviews that he’s given in the past weeks, he’s got that “been there, done that” attitude about the National Championship game. He used to get really emotional and fired up whenever he talked about upcoming games, but last time I saw him on TV, he stifled a yawn twice. Even if he can elevate his play at gametime, that kind of attitude is contagious. Look for his USC teammates to be flat and unmotivated. After all, they’ve already been crowned one of the greatest teams of all time. What is there to play for?

My Periodic Rant About the New York Yankees

15 Apr 2006

Note: This post originally appeared on April 6, 2005.

I hate the Yankees for the following reasons:

10. 1996 - The Yankees ruin the only legitimate shot the Rangers have ever had at a pennant in the Division Series by winning games 3-5. Texas’ bullpen is really to blame, but the thought still deepens my hatred for the Yankees.
9. Jason Giambi. Okay, he’s a great guy, but look at him. The entire man is artificial, and he shouldn’t be allowed to play.
8. Bud Selig. You know it’s a problem. SALARY CAP.
7. 1998 - Before steroid allegations, was widely considered the “magical summer” when McGwire and Sosa hit 70 and 66 home runs, respectively. Then the Yankees win the World Series and ruin it for everybody.
6. Grooming regulations. You’re telling me that to be “a Yankee kind of guy” you can’t have long hair or facial hair? They totally ruined Randy Johnson’s look.
5. Roger Maris. Actually, it’s not Maris, but the way the fans and the media treated him. It’s ironic that Billy Crystal, an avid Yankees fan, directed the movie 61*, because I don’t know how you can see that movie and cheer for New York.
4. Roger Clemens. Does anybody really think that it was okay for him to throw the bat at Mike Piazza - much less drill him in the head? There is no excuse.
3. Alex Rodriguez. He set the Rangers franchise back years by tying up contract and playing GM. The icing on the cake? “I feel like it’s me and 24 kids.” This guy has the biggest ego in the Major Leagues, and I wish someone would shut him up.
2. George Steinbrenner. Contrary to popular belief, he’s not that great of an owner. He just has money. Yeah, if I were friends with Donald Trump, I’d buy superstars too, and apparently that would make me a genius, especially if I run my organization like a fascist.
1. East-coast bias. I used to laugh in the face of people who claimed East-coast bias, but I watched Tony Kornheiser on PTI yesterday say that everybody in America should care about what goes on in New York because it’s more important than whatever else goes on in the country. NYC is great, but it is NOT the center of Western Civilization, or the United States for that matter. Personally, I hope that either the Yankees or the Red Sox drop off the face of the earth so we don’t have to put up with the ridiculous overstatement that has become the rivalry between these two teams. There are plenty of other just as legitimate rivalries in professional sports, and I’m tired of America being expected to pay attention to what goes on in New England. I will continue to cheer for the Red Sox and any other team who plays against the Yankees, but that is where my loyalty stops. Baseball needs a salary cap (to reduce the unfair advantage that each team - yes, the Red Sox too - has before the season even starts. Luxury taxes are not enough. Additionally, New Yorkers need to shut up. John Rocker may have been wrong about various minorities, but he was right about New York. I imagine that I may be persecuted for my beliefs, but I’m sick and tired of the Sox-Yanks thing. Both teams have engaged in childish rhetoric in the media, and the fans of each team boo so much that I can’t decide if they’re actually enjoying the game that they’re watching. I’m watching the game on ESPN right now, and Yankees fans just booed because Kevin Millar got injured and they stopped the game to look at him. Let’s be reasonable. Will I continue to watch the Red Sox and Yankees when they play? Probably. I like good baseball, and it would be foolish to admit that the two teams don’t have good games against each other. Just don’t expect me to rearrange my schedule to watch two teams that I don’t particularly care for. For today though, go Red Sox. Please beat the Yankees. It’s the right thing to do.

Opening Day!

Note: This post originally appeared on April 2, 2006.

Well, the Indians and White Sox are only in the fourth inning (on a rain delay), and in the three and half innings since the season started, every sportswriter’s second favorite “sleeper” pick has already lost their ace (Sabathia) to injury. So much for predictions. I have a few of my own, and I hope to add to them. First I’ll react to some of the things I’ve seen on espn.com and in The Mag, then make some more predictions. Ready? Let’s roll.

ESPN The Magazine released their top-to-bottom division predictions, and I believe that they’re all over the map. For starters, they predicted the Athletics to win the AL West and in the same paragraph, mentioned the idea that Billy Beane might be trying to move Barry Zito. The back half of their rotation is bad enough; they can’t afford to lose their ace. More reactions:

- Nobody at ESPN can write about the Rangers without mentioning the amount of home runs at Ameriquest. Nothing wrong with that, but they rarely ever mention that 65.6% of them were hit by the Rangers. They have power, and nobody gives them credit because there’s a stigma about the ballpark.

- Harold Reynolds, John Kruk, Peter Gammons, and Steve Phillips all picked the Cardinals to win the pennant on Baseball Tonight earlier. Tim Kurkjian picked them to win the division in The Mag. I think they just assume that they will win because they have in the past, but this offseason they lost Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Matt Morris, and Mark Grudzielanek and did virtually nothing to replace them. People seem to forget the 6.21 ERA that Ponson put up last year, not to mention the horrible demeanor that can wreck what is usually a professional clubhouse. I’m also not buying that Scott Rolen is back until I see it. The only thing that gives them a shot is Pujols.

- I can’t believe people think the Astros will succeed again. They added absolutely nobody to help their putrid offense, and Biggio isn’t getting any younger. At some point his aggressive play will catch up with him in the form of injury. It’s a shame, but it’s reality. The only way they break .500 is if Clemens comes back. It will be justice for the way they treated Bagwell.

- Everybody’s favorite sleeper is the Brewers. Again, this is based on a late run they made last season. But, Overbay’s not there anymore and Ben Sheets is injured. They have a bunch of rookies, no bullpen (except Turnbow, but somebody’s got to get him the ball) or bench, and only three legit starters. This is going to be a huge bust.

- Okay, call me a homer (I am), but nobody’s giving the Cubbies a chance because Wood and Prior are on the DL again. I saw an interview with Mark Prior recently, and he’s got the exact right attitude for someone who has to come back and prove himself all over again. And he’s not injury-prone - they’ve all been freak occurrences. As for Wood…I don’t know. Maybe he can be effective from the bullpen again. The bottom line is that nobody’s talking about the addition of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, and that Ronnie Cedeno is poised to break out. They’ve got a platoon of infielders that can be effective off the bench or traded. I see things looking up for them, not in fourth of fifth place in the Central like everybody’s saying.

- I’m tired of people picking the Braves “because I picked against them last year and got burned.” They have a total of two pitchers - bullpen included. You might be able to convince me of Chris Reitsma, but not yet. I love Francoeur and all those guys, but it’s not happening. The Mets have done too much.

Peter Gammons has his picks for individual awards out, and I can’t say I’m impressed. Here’s what he picked:

AL MVP: Bobby Crosby
This has to be an April Fool’s joke. I know that the media loves him and he plays hard, but he’s not an MVP. Steve Phillips points to the A’s record last year with and without him while he was injured, but being a good clubhouse presence doesn’t win you the MVP. Last year he played 84 games and had 9 HRs and 38 RBIs. If you were generous in your calculations, you would discover that he was on pace for 20 HRs and 80 RBIs. A look at his ‘04 stats confirm that this is not atypical (22 & 64). These aren’t even Moneyball numbers. Even Pujols had to wait until his fifth year in the league to win, (Crosby’s in his fourth) and Bobby is not even in Pujols’ league. Peter should have gone with Teixeira or A-Rod. He should also remove Grady Sizemore from his list.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
You can’t argue with this. What you can dispute is Chipper Jones on the runner-up list with Derrek Lee conspicuously absent. Chipper hit his prime…maybe 10 years ago? Not happening.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Unfortunately for Beckett, the Red Sox won’t be scoring as many runs this year. I just don’t see anybody who goes on the DL at least once every year for a blister contending. Santana or Halladay would have been better picks. You can’t really expect Gammons to write a column without predicting something outrageous for the Red Sox, though.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Nice sleeper pick.

Okay, hopefully the rain delay will end soon. My picks for individual awards:
MVP: Mark Teixeira (AL), Albert Pujols (NL)
Cy Young: Bartolo Colon (AL), Carlos Zambrano (NL)
Reliever of the Year: BJ Ryan (AL), Chad Cordero (NL)
Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johjima (AL), Matt Murton (NL)
Rookie Pitcher of the Year: I just looked over a list of eligible players and recognized maybe three names. No prediction. Here’s hoping for Edison Volquez and Angel Guzman.
Comeback Player of the Year (Position Player): Magglio Ordonez (AL), Barry Bonds (NL)
Comeback Player of the Year (Pitcher): Zack Greinke (AL), Mark Prior (NL)

Playoff Picks Revisted:
Here are my playoff teams that I picked a couple of months ago:

Mets
Cubs
Dodgers
Cardinals (WC)

Yankees
Indians
Rangers
Athletics (WC)

I reserve the right to change my picks, because it’s my blog and I was able to catch a few spring training games on TV. I’m going to leave the NL alone, but my AL picks get an overhaul. I have become increasingly less convinced about the Indians and more convinced about the Blue Jays. I’ve got the Blue Jays in the East, the White Sox in the Central (I was skeptical about Jim Thome, but it looks like it really was Philly that was the problem), and the West stays the same.

Ten Bold Predictions for 2006:
I was 1/2 for 10 last year (still an outside shot that Bonds retires at 715. Griffey almost made the season). They’re supposed to be bold, so no backing down.

1. David Wright will finish in the top 5 in MVP balloting. Oh yeah, bold…okay, top 3.
2. Roger Clemens will wait until the end of May to make his decision, making everybody think Astros…but he ends up with the Rangers.
3. Manny Ramirez will get injured messing around in the outfield, forcing David Ortiz to play in the field, effectively ending MVP conversations about him.
4. Nomar Garciaparra will end up playing second base for the Yankees.
5. Carl Crawford will demand a trade and end up in…Kansas City. The Royals will subsequently pass the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central.
6. Dontrelle Willis will lead the NL in ERA but struggle to stay above .500. 12 wins for D-Train.
7. Tony LaRussa will retire after this season.
8. Bobby Jenks gets roughed up sometime early in the season, loses the closer role, and slips into anonymity as his weight approaches 350 pounds.
9. League leaders in home runs: Paul Konerko and Cliff Floyd.
10. This year’s big name to get nailed for steroids: Milton Bradley.

Rain delay’s still not over, so…there’s still a chance that prediction number 8 comes true tonight. Happy baseball!

Looking Forward

Note: This post appeared as part of a larger post on February 10, 2006.

Sportscenter opened with the Mavericks last night, not only because Mark Cuban claimed ownership of Phil Jackson, but because they’re on a 13-game winning streak and playing defense. Anybody that knows anything about the Mavericks knows that defense has always been their Achille’s Heel, so it’s fun to see that the Little General has them whipped into shape. Even Dirk is playing defense! The franchise record for wins in a row is 14, when they started the season that way a couple of years ago. They go for the tie tonight against Denver, and a cupcake schedule for the week or so after that should allow the Mavs to keep on rolling. I can’t wait to see how they stack up against the Spurs on March 2. They’ve split the season series so far, and the way things are going, one game might make the difference between the 1 and 2 seed. Even more than that, I’m looking forward to March 28’s matchup with the Pistons. The first time they met at the beginning of the season, Dallas won 119-82. They also won both preseason matchups. Detroit has played out of their mind up until last week, but I believe they’re just a little overrated. We’ll see soon enough; for now I’m enjoying the streak and some awesome team defense.

The Stars won last night as well. Kapanen had a hat trick, and they scored three power play goals, which has been their Achille’s Heel recently. Hedberg did a great job as the backup, and a team that looked like a 4 or 5 seed at the beginning of the season might actually contend for the President’s Trophy. I’m really worried that the Olympics are going to hurt their momentum, but they have enough veteran leadership to get through it.

Finally, pitchers and catchers report soon (although that’s going to be kind of weird with the World Baseball Classic coming up next month). There’s no precedent for how the WBC will affect players (with unforeseen injuries, fatigue in the later months of the season, etc.), so I’m going to make my preseason predictions with complete disregard for all of that, since I have no idea what to make of it all. Here’s how I think each division will go down:

NL East
The New York Mets have done a lot to help themselves this offseason, so it’s tempting to give in and predict them to win. There’s always a danger in betting against history, though, as the Atlanta Braves have won 15 straight titles. They did trade away some of their prospects, and they have no closer at this moment. I think the Mets actually benefit from the loss of Piazza, as they can actually throw runners out now. It’s also tempting to put the Marlins in last based on their fire sale, but I think getting rid of Thome makes the Phillies implode.

NY Mets
Washington
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia

NL Central
My Cubbies have improved this offseason, getting some help in the bullpen and in the outfield. Juan Pierre gives them a leadoff hitter, and an overflowing infield allows them to make a deadline deal to make a title push. The Astros probably won’t have Roger Clemens, and they haven’t done anything to improve their poor hitting (except force Jeff Bagwell out?). The Cardinals will have a dropoff also, although the continued emergence of Albert Pujols will make things interesting. Milwaukee is in position to be good in a couple of years, but not yet.

Chicago Cubs
St. Louis - Wild Card
Milwaukee
Cincinnatti
Houston
Pittsburgh

NL West
The league’s worst division probably won’t be much better, although the Dodgers are trying to separate themselves from the pack. San Diego won’t get anywhere without Adam Eaton (and Chris Young’s not ready yet), and one or more of the San Francisco Giants might die of old age on the field. The Dodgers will win a close one, but with the league’s 7th or 8th best record.

Los Angeles
San Francisco
San Diego
Arizona
Colorado

AL East
Hooray! My least favorite division. There are two teams that ruin the financial balance of baseball with their overspending (Boston and NY Yankees), one that’s trying to do the same thing (Toronto), one with the whiniest owner in baseball (Baltimore), and the worst team in the league (Tampa Bay). Unlike previous years, the Wild Card will not come out of this division, simply because the rest of the AL has gotten stronger and the top three in the East will beat up on each other. I don’t think there will be much of a change top to bottom here from last year, but the Blue Jays will make it closer than in years past.

New York Yankees
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

AL Central
Lots of people are picking the White Sox to repeat, but I’m not sure they know how to play under pressure. The last Chicago team to be a favorite imploded. Here’s a simple rule I like to live by: Never expect a team to overachieve two years in a row, especially not in baseball, where the schedule is 162 games long. Minnesota has been due for a stellar year for awhile now, but they won’t be as good as the other elite teams in the league because they lack depth. Cleveland will have a breakout year if they can pull off a major deadline deal. I’m banking on that.

Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
Kansas City

AL West
This will be interesting, since the A’s and Rangers have both improved during the offseason. Most people are picking Oakland to win, but I’m going to stick by my prediction that they won’t win the division again as long as Billy Beane is the GM. The Rangers actually have a rotation this year, and they have the extra players to make the all-important deadline trade. Even if they don’t deal, they have the depth to overcome injury and an extended season because of the WBC (Okay, just one!). Phil Rogers seems to think that Michael Young is ready to break out, and if he does, the Rangers have a shot to hit 100. The Angels will fall off this year, as they have lost 2/5 of their rotation. Washburn and Byrd were essential parts of Anaheim’s run last year, and they won’t be able to find help. Seattle will improve, but not that much.

Texas
Oakland - Wild Card
Seattle
Anaheim

World Cup 2006

Note: This post originally appeared on March 22, 2006.

I love the World Cup, and I’ve been excited about it for quite some time. Watching the international competition of the Olympics and the World Baseball Classic only gets me more excited for it. Like or not, (and you should, you American snob) soccer fans are the most passionate in the world, especially when it comes to the World Cup. It is the biggest sporting event in just about every nation, just not this one. Hopefully, when June rolls around, our guys will receive some support, and Kornheiser and Wilbon will be forced to admit that soccer matters. Anyway, here are some early predictions.

Group A

Germany

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Poland

Struggling Germany gets a break with their group, as none of the others are legitimate contenders. Costa Rica has a chance to be a “Bracket Buster,” but not much more than that.

Group B

England

Trinidad & Tobago

Sweden

Paraguay

England gets an easy pass as well. I see overachieving Sweden not even making it.

Group C

Serbia & Montenegro

Argentina

Netherlands

Ivory Coast

This is my big surprise. S&M only allowed one goal during qualifying. Argentina is one of the favorites, but I’m predicting upset.

Group D

Mexico

Portugal

Angola

Iran

Mexico’s got a lot going for them, and Portugal should be able to take out the weaker teams.

Group E

USA
Italy

Czech Republic

Ghana

Italy’s been in a slump, and the United States is coming on strong. Expectations are high, and I think this team can meet them.

Group F

Brazil

Japan

Croatia

Australia

Japan unfortunately has to share a group with Brazil, which means they must beat a good Croatia team to advance.

Group G

South Korea

France

Togo

Switzerland

South Korea did great as the hosts in ’02, and I believe they will build on that success.

Group H

Spain

Ukraine

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

This is pretty much the weakest group, with Spain being the weakest group winner.

Round of Sixteen

49 - 1A (Germany) v. 2B (Trinidad & Tobago) – Germany, 2-1

I really didn’t see Germany advancing past this point, except that their matchups work really well for them.

50 - 1C (Serbia & Montenegro) v. 2D (Portugal) – Serbia & Montenegro, 2-0

This one’s pretty much a no-brainer as well. Portugal advances by default, and S&M pitches them a shutout.

51 - 1B (England) v. 2A (Costa Rica) – England, 3

-1

Tempting to pick Costa Rica, but the stars for England won’t let it happen.

52 - 1D (Mexico) v. 2C (Argentina) – Mexico, 3-2 (shootout)

It’s not that I don’t like Argentina. I just think Mexico is better than they ever have been.

53 - 1E (USA) v. 2F (Japan) – USA, 3-1

This will be a huge hurdle for the US, but Japan is streaky. Playing Brazil in Group Play will have worn them down.

54 - 1G (South Korea) v. 2H (Ukraine) – South Korea, 4-1

South Korea continues their success against a weaker team.

55 - 1F (Brazil) v. 2E (Italy) – Brazil, 2-1

A rematch of the 1994 Final, which Brazil won in a shootout. Italy’s still good, but the gap is wider now regardless.

56 - 1H (Spain) v. 2G (France) – France, 1-0

Figo is a traitor!

Quarterfinals

57 – W49 (Germany) v. W50 (Serbia & Montenegro) – Serbia & Montenegro, 1-0

I wasn’t planning on projecting Serbia & Montenegro to go this far, but they seem to have the enviable draw.

58 – W53 (USA) v. W54 (South Korea) – USA, 3-2

Bruce Arena gives a motivational speech about getting farther than last time, and South Korea realizes that they’re not in South Korea anymore.

59 – W51 (England) v. W52 (Mexico) – England, 2-1

England has the advantage of playing in Germany. Mexico, content with reaching the quarters, plays flat.

60 – W55 (Brazil) v. W56 (France) – Brazil, 3-1

Thierry Henry is good, but not good enough to take on Brazil by himself.

Semifinals

61 – W57 (Serbia & Montenegro) v. W58 (USA) – USA, 2-0

Serbia & Montenegro never should have made it this far.

62 – W59 (England) v. W60 (Brazil) – Brazil, 3-2

Ronaldinho knows the English players to well for them to have any real advantage.

Third Place

63 – L61 (Serbia & Montenegro) v. L 63 (England) – England, 4-2

England, with the pressure off, scores four goals in seventy minutes.

Finals

64 – W61 (USA) v. W62 (Brazil) – Brazil, 2-1

Keep in mind that this matchup never happens (or happens much earlier) if Italy beats the USA in Group E, making that early match a must-win for the Americans. Frankly, I think Brazil is unstoppable this year, so the later the US has to play them the better.
Is anybody else at all excited about this? June will be a great month. The Cubs and the Rangers will both be in first, the Mavs and the Stars will both win, and the World Cup will be underway. Come on, June!