Just for Sport

I started doing a power ranking on July 1 at the other blog I told you about.  It was meant to be a collaborative effort, but while we’ve talked about working together, it hasn’t happened yet.  To avoid monopolizing the space over there, I will be posting my personal power ranking here on a weekly basis.  Look for a preview of the second half sometime later this week.  Last week’s rankings are in parentheses.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2)
2. Chicago Cubs (6)
3. Boston Red Sox (4)
4. New York Mets (20)
5. Minnesota Twins (5)
6. Chicago White Sox (3)
7. Tampa Bay Rays (1)
8. St. Louis Cardinals (7)
9. Florida Marlins (12)
10. Texas Rangers (14)
11. Milwaukee Brewers (11)
12. Philadelphia Phillies (13)
13. New York Yankees (10)
14. Oakland Athletics (8)
15. Toronto Blue Jays (15)
16. Detroit Tigers (9)
17. Cincinnati Reds (22)
18. Atlanta Braves (21)
19. Arizona Diamondbacks (16)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers (24)
21. Houston Astros (18)
22. Pittsburgh Pirates (23)
23. Cleveland Indians (25)
24. Kansas City Royals (19)
25. San Francisco Giants (26)
26. Baltimore Orioles (17)
27. Colorado Rockies (30)
28. San Diego Padres (28)
29. Seattle Mariners (29)
30. Washington Nationals (27)

A lot has been made over the last couple of days about the blockbuster trades that the Cubs and the Brewers made.  In case you haven’t been near a television in the last 24 hours, the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia, and the Cubs got Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.  It seems only natural to compare the two trades since they happened so close together and since both teams are in the NL Central.  So let’s do that, starting with the Brewers.  Stats listed are career stats.

The Brewers got:

CC Sabathia
107-71(.601), 3.82 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 7.45 K/9
Postseason: 1-2, 7.17 ERA
2007 Cy Young Award Winner
27 years old (turns 28 this month)
Free Agent in 2008 offseason

The Brewers gave up:

Matt LaPorta
AA - 82 Games, .291 BA, .404 OBP, 20 HR, 66 RBI
23 years old
Former #7 overall pick 

Robert Bryson
A - 3-2 (.600), 5 SV, 4.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.95 K/9
20 years old 

Taylor Green
A+ - 78 Games, .297 BA, .381 OBP, 10 HR, 50 RBI
21 years old 

Player to be named later (likely Zach Jackson)

The Cubs got:

Rich Harden
36-19(.655), 3.42 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 8.69 K/9
Postseason: 0-2, 6.43 ERA
26 years old 

Chad Gaudin
24-23(.511), 2 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.525 WHIP, 6.38 K/9
Postseason: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
25 years old 

The Cubs gave up:

Sean Gallagher
3-4(.429), 5.28 ERA, 1.514 WHIP,  6.63 K/9
22 years old 

Matt Murton
308 Games, .294 BA, .362 OBP, 28 HR, 104 RBI
26 years old (turns 27 in October) 

Eric Patterson
20 Games, .239 BA, .308 OBP, 1 HR, 7 RBI
25 years old 

Josh Donaldson
A - 61 Games, .223 BA, .282 OBP, 6 HR, 23 RBI
22 years old 

It seems as if the Brewers have mortgaged their future to make this one playoff run.  Manny LaPorta is considered one of the best prospects in the minors right now, and judging by the statistics, it looks as though Bryson (look at the K rate) and Green have tremendous upside.  Both Sabathia and Ben Sheets will be gone next year, and there will be little help coming from their farm system.  They had better make the playoffs this year if this trade is to be deemed a success.  If they do happen to make it, they will be formidable in a short series.  

On the other hand, the Cubs got a slightly better pitcher.  Sabathia has the better name recognition as a Cy Young winner (plus he’s been around longer), but Harden has the better statistics.  He is an injury risk, but if he stays healthy, this trade is a steal.  The Cubs not only got Harden to strengthen their rotation, which now includes Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill/Jason Marquis.  In addition, they got a solid reliever that will be able to contribute on a daily basis.  In exchange the only real prospect of value they gave up is Sean Gallagher, who has a bright future and has shown flashes of brilliance this year.  Despite lots of hand-wringing by columnists and talking heads, Murton in fact did get his chance in the majors, and largely failed to produce.  Billy Beane was surely attracted to his OBP, but his run production numbers are sub-par.  He will likely contribute to a nominal degree in Oakland, but he will not be missed in Chicago.  Jim Hendry was probably happy to get rid of Patterson, who is overrated because of his brother.  Only once have I ever seen a player tag at first and take second on a routine fly ball to left field, and that one time Patterson was the left fielder.  Josh Donaldson may make a serviceable catcher, but was unlikely to see time in the foreseeable future with Geovany Soto at the dish for the big club.

In short, the Cubs win.  They got the better of the two deals, though I will be afraid of the Brewers if they manage to nab a Wild Card spot.  As for the other two aces on the respective clubs, Zambrano was dominant today, while Sheets was average.  Chalk another win up to the Cubbies. 

Remember when I told you this blog was moving?  It’s happened.  I will likely hold on to this site and update it periodically, but most of my blogging efforts will be spent on the new collaborative sports blog Odd Man Rush.  In the meantime, I will be changing the cosmetics of this site as I get an opportunity.  You may notice that the banner is a mess.  That is the result of many unsuccessful tests that suddenly worked - all at once.  The end result is that the OMR site actually looks pretty good because I ironed out most of the bugs over here first.  See you there!

There is no real connection between Mark Teixeira and Texas, besides the fact that he played 4 1/2 years in Arlington.  In fact, there is probably a greater connection between Tex (I guess that’s where the familiarity comes from) and the good people of Georgia, given that he played at Georgia Tech.

But now, Atlanta fans are getting a taste of what we here in North Texas experienced before we traded him.  Malcontent, hints of wanting to play with another team, and clubhouse dissension all seem to follow this guy.  This blog wants to bring Tex to Baltimore.  Be careful what you wish for.

Rangers fans are surely planning on welcoming Tex "home" tonight when the Braves come in to play.  Before you cheer for him, remember that he undermined Ron Washington, causing clubhouse problems that still linger today.  Remember that the notorious slow starter declined to play just 2 extra minor league games before the season last year because of travel.  Remember that the Scott Boras client turned down an 8-year, $140 million contract before we traded him.

Sound a little like A-Rod?  Think about giving him the A-Rod treatment on his "homecoming."

Hank Steinbrenner, or, as he will be henceforth known on this blog, The One Who Vomits Words, apparently doesn’t understand that baseball is a game of tradition.  Concerning the Designated Hitter, or, as it will henceforth be known on this blog, Bud Selig’s First Abomination, he said the following on Monday:

"…it’s about time they address it. That was a rule from the 1800s."

Are you kidding me?  The Designated Hitter has bastardized the game for 8/15 of Major League clubs since 1972, and now TOWVW wants to ruin it for the rest of us.  I am out of town for the week and am not even supposed to be using a computer, but look for a post coming soon concerning the DH.

One cool thing about running a blog on this site is that you can see how people get to your site.  Mostly people get here by typing in the address directly (totally cool that people actually do that, given the irregularity of the updates), but sometimes people actually link here (even cooler).  One other way, though, is by searching Google.  It’s sometimes cool to see the different searches that this blog shows up on.  Some that I see a lot are a player’s or team’s name followed by the word "overrated," which lead the searcher to the ever-popular posts about overrated players.  I mentioned Tank McNamara once, so apparently anytime someone searches for the popular comic, my site pops up, and I occasionally get visitors for that.  A lot of times people ask questions, like "When did the Texas Rangers last win a pennant?" (the answer: Never.  1 win in 3 playoff appearances does not equal a pennant.) or "What are the NFL teams in alphabetical order?"  This is the typical stuff.

Every once in a while, though, there are searches that make me laugh out loud.  There have been three recently that had that effect on me, and I wanted to share them with you:

1: Google: dallas cowboys players who refer to themselves in third person

JFS actually shows up 2nd on the results list for this one!

2: Google: baseball bigamist

Again, we’re #2. 

3: Google: donovan mcnabb super bowl vomit

#3 this time, although Google actually links to the "New Orleans Saints" category.  Who knew? 

If you’re one of the Googlers who stumbled this way, welcome, and I hope you found what you’re looking for. 

Depending on your viewpoint, the first All-English UEFA Final was either a very fortunate or a very unfortunate pairing.  In my mind, it was terrible: The Soccer equivalent of the Red Sox versus the Yankees.  Bandwagon Red Sox fans are only outdone by bandwagon Manchester United fans.  On the other hand, Chelsea’s payroll this year is a whopping $270 million, bringing new meaning to the term "trying to buy a championship." 

Unfortunately for the popularity of soccer in the States, the game was rather unexciting and full of all the stereotypes and excuses that keep Americans from watching the game.  There were two goals in regulation, and they both came in the first half.  Nobody scored in 75 minutes of play.  Edward Van der Sar made a grand total of one save in 120 minutes, yet still ended up on the winning side.  Then there were the referees, who seemed determined to affect the outcome of the game, handing out cards for every mistimed challenge.   Finally, the superstar on each team lived up to their respective bad reputations: Cristiano Ronaldo apparently wanted to set a record for flops in one game, while Didier Drogba showed his maturity by throwing the wussiest slap recorded on television during extra time.

All in all, this was a missed opportunity for a highly visible game to have an impact on America.  Instead, stereotypes have been confirmed in the minds of those who need excuses not to watch.

Most Americans have no idea what this means.  These people will continue to not care after today. 

Interleague play starts tomorrow, which means at least one thing: Baseball records and statistics start to mean something.  Up until now, it’s all about positioning.  Sometimes the Pirates or the Royals stay close to the top of the division a couple of weeks in, but unless they make it to the quarterpole with a respectable record, it doesn’t matter.  Obviously, things can always change, but at this time of the year you can put some stock into trends and statistics.  Here are some observations about the state of the Majors:

American League 

East - As of today, the Rays are in first place in the AL East.  Who knew?  We did.  Will they keep it up?  A strong pitching staff, a surprise closer, and some young upstart players say they will probably stay in the race longer than most think.

Central - Our chosen AL representative, the Detroit Tigers, sit in last place in the Central, 6 games back of first.  Can they turn it around?  Only if their starting pitching delivers.   Minnesota and Chicago hover around .500, and both teams could go either way.  This will likely be a competitive division deep into September.

West - The Mariners do not look good at all.  The loss of Erik Bedard coupled with the offense acting their age is a recipe for last place in the league’s smallest division.  The A’s are off to a surprising start and the Rangers can’t decide if they’re a basement team or a contender - the end result will likely be a record around .500, which will be an accomplishment for this team.

Statistics and Trends to Note: 

• The Rays own the best home record at 16-8 as well as the best overall record.  Their 24-17 record puts them on pace for 95 wins.
• Only two teams have a winning record away from home: California and Oakland.  Could it be because they both get to play the Rangers and Mariners more than anybody else?
• The team with the worst record is Seattle, at 16-26.   They are on pace for a 62-100 season.
• The Tigers are 5-1 vs. LHPs and 11-24 vs RHPs.  Too many right-handed bats in the lineup?
• The Red Sox have scored by far the most runs: 216.  The next highest total is owned by Texas, with 200.  However, the Rangers have also given up an AL-high 229.  Puts the Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton trade in perspective, huh?

National League

East - The Marlins are the surprise team of the NL.  Has anybody mentioned that the have the league’s lowest payroll?  Meanwhile, the Mets are stuck around .500 and reportedly have chemistry issues.  The Braves play inconsistently, so it looks like the Phillies stand poised to benefit from a Marlins collapse - if it happens.

Central - It would be easy to say "I told you so."  So I’m going to do it.  The Cubs looks like they’re in control (for now), Houston is playing better than everybody thought, and the Brewers are tied for fourth with…Pittsburgh.  The only surprise in our mind is that St. Louis is playing so well, and they don’t even have key pieces of their rotation pitching at the moment.  If Carpenter and Mulder come in and pitch well, they could run away with the division.  On the other hand, they could struggle to find their mid-season form and create all kinds of chemistry issues.  The top three teams are separated by 2 games, so anything could happen, but it seems clear that by the All-Star break there will be only 3 serious contenders in this six-team division.

West - It looked like four teams would contend for the West division title, but only two appear to have a shot.  The Diamondbacks are red-hot as expected, and the Dodgers look good as well.  Only three teams in the entire league are 9 or more games back of first place, and they all call the NL West home.  

Statistics and Trends to Note:

• The Diamondbacks boast the best record in either league at 26-15, which puts them on pace for 103 wins.
• Three teams have home records over .700: The Braves (14-4), the Cubs(17-7), and the Diamondbacks (17-7).  The Braves are 6-16 on the road, however, making them and even .500 overall.
• San Diego has the worst record in either league at 15-27, which gives them an expected loss total of 104.
• All three teams at the bottom of the NL West have given up 200 or more runs.  The Rockies share the league "lead" with the Pirates.  The Padres have an already dismal run differential of -60.
• The best run differential belongs to the Cubs, at +68.  They also boast the most runs total at 238, while the Braves have given up the least runs: 154. 
• Atlanta, which sports a .500 record, is 1-11 in 1-run games.  Amazingly, the Reds are 8-3 despite sole possession of last place in the NL Central.

After 19 years of living two hours away from Dallas (in 2 different cities), I will be moving to Big D some time in the next 3 months.  That means, among other things, that this blog will take a new direction.  The changes will be thus:

1. A new url, possibly with its own domain name.  Watch for this announcement.
2. Possibly some new contributors, which will take the pressure off of me to update frequently.  Speaking of which…
3. More time to update, which means this blog will look more like, well, a blog.
4. Most importantly, a change in focus.  While JFS (or whatever it’s called when we move) will continue to cover the sports world at large, the main focus of the new site will be coverage of DFW area teams.   

Some of the posts will migrate to the new site.  I keep track of what pages get viewed most often, and these posts will be among the ones that make the cut.  They may also be part of the template that we use to try to stay unique and relevant on an oversaturated medium.  (Most popular posts: #1 #2 #3 #4 #5)

Check back for info on the new site! 

I always hoped that by 2008, the Cubs would have won the World Series.  Alas, they haven’t, and now I have to endure insufferable Cardinals fans and Cubs haters of all stripes (hey Brewers fans, bandwagon much?) chanting "100 years" and coming up with other creative, original, and relevant things to say about the situation all year long.  So in the year 2008 will I pick the Cubbies to win it all?  No way.  I may not subscribe to all the curses and jinxes, but I am still a Cubs fan, and I know better than that.  Not this year.

AL East

On some level, the AL East is the easiest division to pick year in and year out.  You can pencil in either the Yankees or the Red Sox as the division winner and walk away feeling okay about it.  I’m not sure that it’s that simple anymore.  In any other division, I like the Rays to challenge for the title.  I would love it if they did so this year, but I don’t think they have the pitching staff for it yet.  They will play spoiler, and that’s why I’m picking New York: The Red Sox play the Rays more down the stretch.  I like the Blue Jays as well, but it’s hard for me to see them breaking through.  This division boasts 4 good teams, but I think the Yanks and Sox will stay on top for at least one more year.

New York
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

AL Central

This division could easily become a two horse race early.  In my opinion, it is the weakest division in baseball.  I will drink the Kool-Aid on Detroit mainly because of the division.  In fact, I believe they will capture the highest record in the American League.  While all of the East teams beat up on each other, the Tigers get to play Chicago, Minnesota, and Kansas City over and over.  Detroit will clinch early and be well rested for the playoffs. 

Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City 

AL West

The major storylines in the AL West will be the battle for the division title between the Angels and the Mariners and the battle to stay out of the cellar between the A’s and the Rangers.  You could pick any combination of four teams in the entire league and the gap between the top two teams and the bottom two teams would not be as big as it is here.  The Angels are among the elite teams and have only gotten better with their free agent acquisitions.  The only suspect area is their starting pitching, especially with John Lackey injured.  The Mariners are young and eager.  This will be an exciting race, and I think the Angels win because of their experience.  The Mariners capture the Wild Card, beating out Boston and Cleveland with their incredibly weak September schedule. 

Los Angeles at Anaheim (Can we just go back to calling them the California Angels?)
Seattle - Wild Card
Texas
Oakland 

NL East

Last year, Jimmy Rollins predicted a division title for the Phillies, and they delivered.  It took an amazing stretch run coupled with a historic Mets collapse, but it happened.  There was one major difference between what happened last year and what will happen this year: the Mets didn’t have Johan Santana last year.  I like the Mets to win easily this year.  I also like the Braves to surprise some people and beat out the Phillies for second place.  As for the other teams, I don’t see much movement from the cellar.

New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington 

NL Central

The six-team division is really only a four-team race.  A couple of years ago, I thought the Pirates would be an up-and-comer, but they haven’t done anything to improve themselves.  I also don’t believe in the Cardinals this year.  Last year, they looked out of it, and made a late push, and I don’t like to pick against Tony LaRussa, but look at their roster.  Their outfield is terrible, they have no middle infield, and the rotation is sub-par.  They just don’t have the personnel to compete.  Of the four other teams, I think the Cubs and the Reds look the strongest.  The Cubs’ lineup is formidable and they are solid in the rotation and in the bullpen.  The Reds look good as well, but you must consider the Dusty Baker factor, especially considering the state of their bullpen (save for Cordero).  The other two teams have glaring weaknesses.  The Astros have no rotation after Roy Oswalt, although I believe they will surprise a lot of people and beat some good teams.  The Brewers’ bullpen is the definition of suspect, and they must rely on Ben Sheets to be healthy, which is no small task.  This isn’t relevant, but they also have loudmouth fans that overrate their young players.

Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh 

NL West

Like the AL East, the NL West boasts four very strong teams - in this case, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Diego.  I think a lot of people believe that Colorado’s run last year was a fluke, but I’m not one of them.  I think they are legit, and they will challenge for the division.  I would feel good about choosing any of these four to win the division or the Wild Card, but I’m choosing Arizona and Colorado, in that order, for their mix of veteran leadership and youthful enthusiasm.

Arizona
Colorado - Wild Card
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco 

Playoffs 

American League Divisional Series

Detroit over Seattle (Wild Card) in 4 games

Seattle’s youthfulness works against them, especially against such a seasoned team. 

New York over California in 5 games 

You can point to Anaheim’s win over New York in 2002 as a turning point in the Yankee dynasty, and since then, the Angels have had a mental edge over the Yankees.  However, I believe in Joe Girardi, and I think he’s going to turn the Yankees around.

National League Divisional Series

New York over Colorado (Wild Card) in 3 games

The Mets, with Santana, have a significant advantage in a short series.  If Pedro Martinez can regain his form or John Maine can live up to expectations, they will be almost unbeatable.

Arizona over Chicago in 5 games

A rematch of last year’s series will end up the same way.  Arizona has all kinds of weapons that most casual fans don’t even know about: Connor Jackson and Chris Young are just two of them.

ALCS

Detroit over New York in 6 games

This sets up all kinds of interesting storylines: Gary Sheffield versus the Yankees, Joe Girardi versus Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and the rematch of two teams who brawled during the regular season.  That would probably be the case no matter who the Yankees end up playing, I guess, but still interesting nonetheless.  These two teams are represented by a ton of playoff experience, and I think it will be hard-fought.  In the end, I think the pitching for the Tigers wins out.

NLCS

Arizona over New York in 7 games

The media will be abuzz about a Subway Series, but neither New York team will make it there.  If you haven’t figured it out by now, I really like Arizona this year.  I think the addition of Dan Haren puts them over the top, but they need a lot of things to go right.  Their young players must perform up to expectations, Randy Johnson must have a resurgence, and above all, they must find a closer they can rely on.

World Series

Arizona over Detroit in 6 games

Ok, so you can see why I’d be tempted to take the Cubs to go to the Series, right?  Arizona has to have all these things happen just right, New York has a history of collapsing and they have one solid pitcher (granted, he’s more than solid), and everybody else has their flaws, too.  But, um, I’m not picking them.  Not this year.  Arizona will win the World Series, NOT the Cubs.  It’s in writing.  I am NOT jinxing the Cubs this year, the 100 year anniversary of their last championship.  It’s Arizona all the way.

Convincing enough?  I sure hope so…